The Latest Polls

[BlueStateSaint]

All I'm saying is that there is still an entire shitload of Barrybots out there who are convinced he still walks on water. You and I never drank the Kool-Aid, but many of these folks - Mrs E among them - are addicted to it.

You have to remember the 'enthusiasm gap' as reported by Gallup--Republicans up 16 points.

[Eupher]

You have to remember the 'enthusiasm gap' as reported by Gallup--Republicans up 16 points.

Enthusiasm - like memory - fades quickly with most voters.

If Romney should stumble and Barry actually have his shit together for the next debate, how would Romney then fare? Those ratings could very well plummet just like Barry's prospects of getting laid last Wednesday night.

[Kyle Ricky]

BlueState is correct about the enthusiasm gap. There isn't nearly the enthusiasm for obama this time, as there was in 2008. He won't have the same turn out.

[debk]

Still 2 debates to get through and a whole lot of nasty press from the MSM before election.

We don't want those voting for RR to get complacent, the weather be inclement and too many of them decide not to bother going out and voting. If that happens, Obama will win.

Hopefully,lots and lots of those voting RR will get out and do early voting. No excuse then for not doing it on election day. I know we will be doing early voting.

[Kyle Ricky]

12 thousand people showed up at the RR Rally in Ohio today, in the rain and cold...

[Lacarnut]

Enthusiasm - like memory - fades quickly with most voters.

If Romney should stumble and Barry actually have his shit together for the next debate, how would Romney then fare? Those ratings could very well plummet just like Barry's prospects of getting laid last Wednesday night.

I think the die is cast because Obama has nothing to run on. His only accomplishment is Obamacare and more than half of the voters do not like it. Romney has a plan to get the economy back on the right track. Obama has none; I almost feel sorry for him because he is such a pathetic figure who is way out of his league. Romney will win the second debate and that will spell defeat for the community organizer. 

[Zeus]

All I'm saying is that there is still an entire shitload of Barrybots out there who are convinced he still walks on water. You and I never drank the Kool-Aid, but many of these folks - Mrs E among them - are addicted to it.

The Kool-Aid drinkers are for all intents and purposes a write off since they will pull the lever for a D no matter the circumstances. The Independents are shifting RR but it's the silent crowd ( silent for numerous reasons chief among them not speaking out against Obama for fear of being branded a racist) uncounted, un polled folks that are finding a voice (backbone) and backing RR.

[NHSparky]

Enthusiasm - like memory - fades quickly with most voters.

If Romney should stumble and Barry actually have his shit together for the next debate, how would Romney then fare? Those ratings could very well plummet just like Barry's prospects of getting laid last Wednesday night.

I'm not so sure Romney is going to rest on his laurels.  I certainly hope not, although he has shown a tendency to follow up a good debate performance (think Florida primaries) with a soft one.

But his people smell blood in the water, and I would hope that they're telling him to keep up the pressure, to keep Obama on the ropes, so to speak.

It's a place Obama isn't used to being, and doesn't know how to fight his way out of a corner.  Add to that he's so narcissistic he really didn't expect to be debated or countered, merely adored and nodding heads in silent assent, I'm not sure someone of his ego can recover that quickly from the smackdown he took.

At least that's my hope.

[Eupher]

I think the die is cast because Obama has nothing to run on. His only accomplishment is Obamacare and more than half of the voters do not like it. Romney has a plan to get the economy back on the right track. Obama has none; I almost feel sorry for him because he is such a pathetic figure who is way out of his league. Romney will win the second debate and that will spell defeat for the community organizer. 

I'd feel a lot more secure about Romney's prospects if he proceeds to kick Barry's ass in Debate #2. As Sparky notes, Romney's handlers smell blood in the water and while I'm sure Romney is tired from essentially nonstop campaigning for the past 5 years, he absolutely cannot let up now.

The shark must eat.

[debk]

12 thousand people showed up at the RR Rally in Ohio today, in the rain and cold...

OMG

[thundley4]

"If you don't have a record to run on, you paint your opponent as someone to run from.  You make the election about small things."

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTynx1hnfig[/youtube]

[delilahmused]

Has anyone seen that Military Times poll?

Romney 66%
Obama 24%

Yeah, some guy was trying to argue with me that this poll was only of high ranking NCO's who were career military & officers. He's actually convinced those below Sargent are the poor peons in the tank for 0bama and obviously not polled by Military Times. Obviously he's never tried to live (let alone raise a family) on a sgt's salary. The fact that anyone could be that obtuse is just petrifying. But then, that's how the boy king got elected.

Not to mention the contempt 0bama has for them...it's palpable. If you don't feel it, even if you're not in the military, then you must be in a coma.

Cindie

[BlueStateSaint]

12 thousand people showed up at the RR Rally in Ohio today, in the rain and cold...

If that ain't enthusiasm, I'd be hard pressed to find an example of what it really is.

[Zeus]

If that ain't enthusiasm, I'd be hard pressed to find an example of what it really is.

Unemployed with nothing better to do 

[Jasonw560]

Now that this Cluster**** in Libya has made it to the MSM, and Zero's sheep are frantucakky evading Congress's questions and seeing how they can (again) blame Bush, I see a lot if undecideds making their minds up quick.

I also think we'll see more "Romney Democrats" at the polls.

Eyes are opening. Only the herd mentality brain dead just vote for the (D) idiots will vote for him.

Just my two pesos.

[NHSparky]

Yeah, some guy was trying to argue with me that this poll was only of high ranking NCO's who were career military & officers. He's actually convinced those below Sargent are the poor peons in the tank for 0bama and obviously not polled by Military Times. Obviously he's never tried to live (let alone raise a family) on a sgt's salary. The fact that anyone could be that obtuse is just petrifying. But then, that's how the boy king got elected.

Not to mention the contempt 0bama has for them...it's palpable. If you don't feel it, even if you're not in the military, then you must be in a coma.

Cindie

Someone ought to remind your little librul friend that E-4 through E-6 makes up the bulk of the enlisted force, as does O-3 through O-5.

[Texacon]

Romney up 5 and this one doesn't include Libya.

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

KC

[Ballygrl]

Romney up 5 and this one doesn't include Libya.

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

KC

This is interesting from that poll:

Romney’s lead widened to 5 points from 2 points on Tuesday, as he continues to chip away at key Obama support.
   
Romney’s edge among independents widened to 20 points from 18 just a day before.
   
Obama’s lead among women narrowed from 10 points to 8 points.
   
Romney also continues to make inroads among middle-class voters, moving from a 6-point lead against Obama with this group to a 10-point lead.
   
The current data include only polls taken after Romney’s resounding debate win over Obama on Oct. 3.

[Kyle Ricky]

If that ain't enthusiasm, I'd be hard pressed to find an example of what it really is.

That is more than enthusiasm by a mile. It will only get better.

Unemployed with nothing better to do 

That is only when it comes to the obama rally's. The people at his are bussed in from the soup kitchen and the projects, then told they will get a free cheeseburger for their support of obama.

[Lacarnut]

The Independents are shifting RR but it's the silent crowd ( silent for numerous reasons chief among them not speaking out against Obama for fear of being branded a racist) uncounted, un polled folks that are finding a voice (backbone) and backing RR.

Independents, students and those white guilt voters who voted for Obama last time around have left him in droves and will either vote for Romney or stay home. The thrill is gone along with hope and change.

[Kyle Ricky]

Real Clear Politics updated today, and Romney is ahead in every poll except two (Liberal sources), which he is tied ..

Poll   Date   Sample   MoE   Romney (R)   Obama (D)   Spread
RCP Average   10/4 - 10/12   --   --   47.3   46.0   Romney +1.3
Rasmussen Tracking   10/10 - 10/12   1500 LV   3.0   49   48   Romney +1
Gallup Tracking   10/6 - 10/12   2700 LV   2.0   49   47   Romney +2
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun   10/8 - 10/10   1360 LV   2.7   47   46   Romney +1
IBD/TIPP Tracking   10/6 - 10/11   837 LV   3.5   46   46   Tie
FOX News   10/7 - 10/9   1109 LV   3.0   46   45   Romney +1
Pew Research   10/4 - 10/7   1112 LV   3.4   49   45   Romney +4
WashTimes/JZ Analytics*   10/5 - 10/7   800 LV   3.5   45   45   Tie
 
Intrade Real Time Quotes   Romney: 40.2 | obama: 59.8      (See More Data)

[Ballygrl]

I read somewhere yesterday that 100,000 voters were purged from the system, not sure if it was just the Philly area or the entire state?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/inside-politics/2012/oct/9/poll-shows-romney-closing-gap-pa/

Poll: Romney surges in Pennsylvania

Mitt Romney's strong performance in the first presidential debate may have put Pennsylvania back in play, and closed the gap with President Obama in other battleground states.

A Siena Research Institute Poll on Tuesday showed the Republican nominee trailing Mr. Obama by only three percentage points, 43 percent to 40 percent, in the Keystone State. Other polls prior to the debate had shown Mr. Obama with as much as a 12-point lead.

"Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes suddenly appear to be up for grabs," said poll director Don Levy. "Romney not only has Republican support but now leads in vote-rich areas outside of Philadelphia and also in the central part of the state. With a month and two more debates to go, Pennsylvania's direction on the road to the White House remains in doubt."

The Siena survey found 12 percent of the state's voters undecided. The poll was conducted from Oct. 1 to Oct. 5; the debate took place on Oct. 3.

Meanwhile, the Republican also received a post-debate boost in Wisconsin, where a PPP survey found that Mr. Romney now trails the president by just two percentage points, 49 percent to 47 percent. Two weeks ago Mr. Romney trailed Mr. Obama by seven points there.

In Ohio, an ARG poll taken Oct. 5-8 has Mr. Romney up by one point, 48 percent to 47 percent. Surveys taken there prior to the debate showed the president with as much as an 8-point lead.

In Michigan, an FMW poll taken after the debate showed Mr. Romney trailing by 3 percentage points, just above the margin of error, 49 percent to 46 percent.

[Ballygrl]

Exclusive poll: Obama's support among Hispanic voters eroding

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/timesbay-news-9herald-exclusive-florida-poll-romney-51-obama-44/1255882

Here's a graphic from a different link to the same poll:

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/news/article.html/content/news/articles/bn9/2012/10/13/exclusive_poll_obama.html

[Ballygrl]

Jason asked in another thread about the breakdown and if there's oversampling going on, from the above article there's this:

Not all the polling news was bleak for Obama Thursday. An Oct. 7-9 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Florida poll found significantly different results, with Obama leading Romney among likely Florida voters 48 percent to 47 percent, and well ahead of Romney among women. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.

A couple differences between the Marist poll and Mason-Dixon: Mason-Dixon, which has been polling in Florida for 28 years, uses a survey sample based on people's voter actual registration to match the electorate in Florida, while Marist uses a sample based on whether people say they consider themselves a Republican, Democrat or independent. About 20 percent of the likely voters in the Marist poll were Hispanic, while 13 percent were Hispanic in the Mason-Dixon poll, more in line with the Florida voting patterns. Marist had Obama leading among Hispanics 47 percent to 45 percent.

[Jasonw560]

I removed that post. I saw they used the same survey in Tampa Bay, so my qurstion, to me, was answered.

But, I'll ask it here for fairness: Are the rest of them Democrat oversampled? Are they all the same sampling?