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Careful with that Pew Poll; apparently it has an R +3 sample, according to Ace of Spades.
An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,†Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.â€While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.Their original prediction model was one of 13 published in August in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. The journal has published collections of presidential election models every four years since 1996, but this year the models showed the widest split in outcomes, Berry said. Five predicted an Obama win, five forecast a Romney win, and three rated the 2012 race as a toss-up.The Bickers and Berry model includes both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May, and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. It is the last update they will release before the election.Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico -- now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.In Colorado, which Obama won in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 53.3 percent of the vote to Obama’s 46.7 percent, with only the two major parties considered.While national polls continue to show the president in the lead, “the president seems to be reaching a ceiling at or below 50 percent in many of these states,†Bickers said. “Polls typically tighten up in October as people start paying attention and there are fewer undecided voters.â€The state-by-state economic data used in their model have been available since 1980. When these data were applied retroactively to each election year, the model correctly classifies all presidential election winners, including the two years when independent candidates ran strongly: 1980 and 1992. It also correctly estimates the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the election through the Electoral College.In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors analyzed changes in personal income from the time of the prior presidential election. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates, while Republicans are held more responsible for fluctuations in personal income.Accordingly -- and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time -- each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately.In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had a statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a party’s national convention, the home state of the vice president or the partisanship of state governors.The authors also provided caveats. Their model had an average error rate of five states and 28 Electoral College votes. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall in an unexpected direction due to factors not included in the model.“As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,†they wrote.
"The nation that couldn’t be conquered by foreign enemies has been conquered by its elected officials" odawg Free Republic in reference to the GOP Elites who are no difference than the Democrats
Romney will carry New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. On the flip side, Obama will take Michigan and Nevada.
In August, TheBlaze told you about University of Colorado Professors Ken Bickers and Michael Berry and their highly-accurate Electoral College prediction model. As you may recall, Bickers and Berry, using their metrics, are able to retroactively predict every presidential win since 1980.Their 2012 model made headlines two months ago because, despite polling, it found that Republican presidential candidate Romney would win 320 Electoral Votes, stealing the White House away from President Barack Obama. Now, an updated version of their study has come to the same conclusion — but it intensifies the numbers behind a predicted Romney win.Despite the fact that polls still show a dead-heat race (Obama is currently at 48.2 percent, with Romney capturing 47.3 percent of likely voters in the most recent Real Clear Politics average), an updated election model shows an even larger gap between the Electoral College votes that Romney and Obama are projected to win. According to Bickers and Berry, the Republican challenger is projected to take 330 of the 558 votes, while Obama is expected to capture only 208 of them.With 270 as the major number needed for any candidate to win, this clearly shows Obama far from the mark, sending Romney — at least theoretically — to victory come November. While the model did not change, Bickers‘ and Berry’s analysis is based on updated economic data, which clearly helped sway the projection even further in Romney’s favor.-continued at the link-
Romney up 2 in new national poll from … Daily Kos?posted at 12:01 pm on October 9, 2012 by Ed MorrisseyI have to give Markos Moulitsas credit for posting this result. He could have taken the easy way out and had PPP release it independently. And looking within the depths of this poll result, you have to know how much it pained him to follow through on the likely-voter survey Markos commissioned (via Twitchy): The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for? Obama 47 (49) Romney 49 (45) That’s a pretty disastrous six-point net swing in just a week, and the first time we’ve ever had Romney in the lead. It is inline with all other national polling showing Romney making gains in the wake of his debate performance last week.The sample is a D+3,
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/09/romney-up-2-in-new-national-poll-from-daily-kos/
Has anyone seen that Military Times poll?Romney 66%Obama 24%
http://www.conservativecave.com/index.php/topic,79156.0.html
Whoa...Ohio: American Research Group.D (42%), R (33%), I (25%)Romney 48, Obama 47Link
Um. Go to Real Clear Politics right now.Romney is up in the overall poll average.
RCP Average 9/28 - 10/8 -- -- 48.2 47.8 Romney +0.4Rasmussen Tracking 10/6 - 10/8 1500 LV 3.0 48 48 TiePew Research 10/4 - 10/7 1112 LV 3.4 49 45 Romney +4Gallup Tracking 10/2 - 10/8 2721 LV 2.0 49 47 Romney +2Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/1 - 10/4 1000 LV 3.1 48 49 Obama +1CNN/Opinion Research 9/28 - 9/30 783 LV 3.5 47 50 Obama +3
I'm listening to Rush in between laundry and cooking dinner, did I hear Rush right? he said Romney is up by 5 in Ohio even though Democrats were oversampled by 9 points? and Romney is leading by 20% amongst Independents in Ohio?
I think he said Romney is up by one.
I think all these polls are wrong because of Democrat over sampling. Romney is going to win in a landslide.
Fat lady ain't sung yet, guys. There's a whole lotta backstabbin' in this campaign left to do.
Call me an optimist but folks are starting to open their eyes and ears and using their brains to all the BS & lies coming from the current administration that further BS and lies will only hurt them not Romney.Don't get me wrong they will still bleat the lies but to their own detriment.
