The Latest Polls

[Ballygrl]

I removed that post. I saw they used the same survey in Tampa Bay, so my qurstion, to me, was answered.

But, I'll ask it here for fairness: Are the rest of them Democrat oversampled? Are they all the same sampling?

You'd have to google for the internals of each poll, but IMO the oversampling early on was to demoralize us, the closer to the election the more realistic the polling, the people doing the polling have reps to think of.

[Jasonw560]

You'd have to google for the internals of each poll, but IMO the oversampling early on was to demoralize us, the closer to the election the more realistic the polling, the people doing the polling have reps to think of.

That makes sense. You are probably right.

The other part of that post was, should we be celebrating the polls now even though we lamented them and saying don't trust them when Zero was up in the polls?

To answer my own question, the answer is yes, if they are more realistic.

[Ballygrl]

That makes sense. You are probably right.

The other part of that post was, should we be celebrating the polls now even though we lamented them and saying don't trust them when Zero was up in the polls?

To answer my own question, the answer is yes, if they are more realistic.

I have no problem with polls when they're done fairly. If you poll a particular state then I'd hope the poll would have at least the breakdown of D/R/I within say 2-3 points, but when you do a poll in Ohio as an example and Democrats are oversampled by 9 points and Obama has a 6 point lead to fit your personal thinking? no freaking way. I may not like Rasmussen's polls all the time, but the guy is fair at least, and I'll bitch about the respondents as opposed to bitching at Rasmussen.

[BigTex]

GWU/Politico - National
D +3 Poll: Obama 49, Romney 48

2008 turnout: Obama 49, Romney 48

2004 turnout: Romney 49, Obama 48

WaPo - National
D +9 Poll: Obama 49, Romney 46
no cross sections

ARG - Iowa
D +1 Poll: Romney 48, Obama 48

2008 turnout: Romney 48, Obama 48

2004 turnout: Romney 49, Obama 47

ARG - Virginia
D +5 Poll: Romney 48, Obama 47

2008 turnout: Obama 48, Romney 47

2004 turnout: Romney 52, Obama 43

Gravis - Colorado
R +3.6 Poll: Obama 48, Romney 46
no cross sections

Gravis - Florida
D +2 Poll: Romney 48, Obama 47

2008 turnout: Romney 50, Obama 45

2004 turnout: Romney 53, Obama 42

[Ballygrl]

Dick Morris on Sean's show now:

Democrat Polling in Michigan shows Obama 44 Romney 43

Pennsylvania shows Romney winning

Minnesota polls within 4 points with Obama having the lead

[bijou]

Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Romney's best numbers of the week

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 10/12-14. Likely voters. MoE ±2.5% (10/4-7 results)
The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Obama 46 (47)
Romney 50 (49)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/16/1144982/-Daily-Kos-SEIU-State-of-the-Nation-poll-Romney-s-best-numbers-of-the-week

[Texacon]

Gallup: R 50% O 46%

Any DUmmie head explosions over these polls that just keep getting better?

KC

[Kyle Ricky]

Gallup: R 50% O 46%

Any DUmmie head explosions over these polls that just keep getting better?

KC

I looked to see the sampling breakdown on that, there wasn't any. I was hoping it was with over sampling Dems.

[NHSparky]

Real Clear Politics updated today, and Romney is ahead in every poll except two (Liberal sources), which he is tied ..

Poll   Date   Sample   MoE   Romney (R)   Obama (D)   Spread
RCP Average   10/4 - 10/12   --   --   47.3   46.0   Romney +1.3
Rasmussen Tracking   10/10 - 10/12   1500 LV   3.0   49   48   Romney +1
Gallup Tracking   10/6 - 10/12   2700 LV   2.0   49   47   Romney +2
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun   10/8 - 10/10   1360 LV   2.7   47   46   Romney +1
IBD/TIPP Tracking   10/6 - 10/11   837 LV   3.5   46   46   Tie
FOX News   10/7 - 10/9   1109 LV   3.0   46   45   Romney +1
Pew Research   10/4 - 10/7   1112 LV   3.4   49   45   Romney +4
WashTimes/JZ Analytics*   10/5 - 10/7   800 LV   3.5   45   45   Tie
 
Intrade Real Time Quotes   Romney: 40.2 | obama: 59.8      (See More Data)

Um, IBD is Investors Business Daily--VERY conservative (more so than WSJ.)

But note that most of the polls are now going from Adults/Registered Voters to Likely Voters, giving Romney the edge he had all along, and just far enough out to save face with the MSM outlets.

[Mrs Erdleigh]

Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney

Romney 51% Obama 45%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx

[Texacon]

Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney

Romney 51% Obama 45%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx

The pollsters are starting to get real with it.

I'm waiting on Rasmussen.

KC

[Kyle Ricky]

Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney

Romney 51% Obama 45%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx

Is this from toda? Rush was talking about one of them.

Um, IBD is Investors Business Daily--VERY conservative (more so than WSJ.)

But note that most of the polls are now going from Adults/Registered Voters to Likely Voters, giving Romney the edge he had all along, and just far enough out to save face with the MSM outlets.

Yeah, I forgot what the IBD was at the time I wrote the reply.

[Texacon]

Is this from toda? Rush was talking about one of them.

Yup that one is hot off the presses.

KC

[zeitgeist]

I ran across this the other day in Barron's.  I have a very dumb phone but if anyone has a smart one this might be a good app to pick up on .

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903463204578044512188508442.html?mod=BOL_twm_col

The must-have campaign app of this political season is not from the Romney or Obama camp—though each has its own candidate for iPhones and Android devices. In these closing weeks the app of the moment is the free PollTracker, which keeps you wired with hour-by-hour updates of polls for both local and national races.
 
PollTracker defaults to a "Presidential Dashboard" with a big, clean scoreboard showcasing the Romney versus Obama race nationwide, based on a weighted average of a variety of polls. Tap on "Swing States" to see the presidential race for Ohio, Virginia and 10 other key Electoral College races.



PollTracker







Enlarge Image




.
Price: Free
Features: Customized dashboard for tracking specific races.
Other Political Apps: Ad Hawk, Vote
Available via: iTunes, Google Play



.

.
You can set up alerts on specific races and create a personal dashboard to keep current on, say, Massachusetts, where GOP Senator Scott Brown trails Democrat Elizabeth Warren, and Arizona, where Republican Jeff Flake is beating Democrat Richard Carmona.
 
In the Presidential screen, you can dig into subgroups such as men (Romney is consistently favored), women (Obama, consistently). The app also shows how voters rate candidates on key issues (Romney is trouncing Obama on the economy, recently 51% to 44%).
 
Although PollTracker is from the liberal TalkingPointsMemo.com, there's no political leaning evident in the app. It transparently presents polls from a wide variety of sources, such as Gallup and Rasmussen, and indicates how current the results are.
 
Some political apps are strikingly creative. The Sunlight Foundation's Ad Hawk identifies who's behind TV messages based on their sound. The makers of the popular Infinity Blade game have recast that sword-fighting as a free hack-and-slash between Obama and Romney, who wield mics and other campaign-themed weapons. As of last week, the cumulative score from all players of Vote put Obama ahead, 23.7 million to 22.6 million. Talk about early returns.

And it is free.

[Ballygrl]

Headline at Drudge:

GALLUP: R 52% O 45%

[Kyle Ricky]

PPP

Obama is up 51/45 with women, 62/34 with Hispanics, 87/8 with African Americans, and 57/38 with young voters.

Romney is ahead 50/45 with men, 46/41 with independents, 58/38 with whites, and 53/43 with seniors.

They said they are going to do three day polls of 400 people up till the election.

[BlueStateSaint]

Romney Takes Lead in Electoral College (Real Clear Politics)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

 

[Splashdown]

Romney Takes Lead in Electoral College (Real Clear Politics)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

 

Damn beat me to it. Hi-5, and 

[Texacon]

And unless I'm wrong all of this is before the 2nd debate bump which I firmly believe is on the way.

KC

[Jasonw560]

Count 29 more for R/R, as I believe Florida will go Red.

I'm watching the Senate races, too.

[BigTex]

And unless I'm wrong all of this is before the 2nd debate bump which I firmly believe is on the way.

KC

is going to have to be a large one just to keep Obama in the race, Romney up 7 points in Gallup is a pretty large hurdle to get over.

[Splashdown]

is going to have to be a large one just to keep Obama in the race, Romney up 7 points in Gallup is a pretty large hurdle to get over.

From following Texacon, I'm thinking he believes ROMNEY will get the post-debate bump. 

[Kyle Ricky]

obama didn't get a post debate bump, so I am looking for Romney to get one.

[BigTex]

From following Texacon, I'm thinking he believes ROMNEY will get the post-debate bump. 

Oh, I dont think there would be one for either candidate they both looked pretty awful and most of the polls showed Obama to win even if it was within the polls MOE

[jtyangel]

PPP

They said they are going to do three day polls of 400 people up till the election.

It always pains me that my gender can't ever seem to use their head  for anything other then a stylists income generator. You know we always hear a mans weakness is he thinks with the wrong head. I'd say the same is true for women: too many think with their hearts. What can be a man or a woman's strength is also their biggest weakness. I'd love to see the pendulum swing so the majority of women understand their nature and when it is advisable to use their heart and when it is required to use their heads. Sigh.