Gutting US military paying dividends

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

ananda (12,058 posts)

Are China and Japan going to war?

 And how will Russia react?

http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Disputed-islands-could-lead-to-a-disastrous-war-for-everyone-27155.html
 
http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21571466-dangerous-dance-around-disputed-islets-becoming-ever-more-worrying-locked
 
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/02/16/asia-pacific/china-digs-in-history-to-bolster-isle-claims/#.USDgfUpzA7A
 
http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/10823

http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/10770

Tanks, one by one, moving along a main road in China’s coastal Fujian province. Driving up speculations that the Chinese military may be warming up for war.
 
And it wasn’t just in Fujian province. These military vehicles were spotted further up the coast, in neighboring Zhejiang province. According to dissident website, molihua.org, these tanks in Hubei province are being transported from a military base to the coast.
 
The troop movements come after months of escalating tensions between China and Japan over the disputed territory of the Diaoyun, or Senkaku islands and they’re known in Japan. It’s caused international worries that the two countries may be on the cusp of war. Both sides have scrambled jets and warships in the region. In January, during naval exercise near the disputed waters, Chinese warships reportedly directed their targeting radar at a Japanese vessel.
 
On February 7, State-run Global Times published this article saying there is a “serious possibility” a military conflict may flare up between China and Japan. It continues to say that fewer and fewer people are hopeful for a peaceful resolution to the Diaoyu Island crisis.

ananda (12,058 posts)

1. Major concern.

If the USA has promised to intervene on the behalf of Japan if hostilities with China escalate, will it honor that promise? This possibility is very worrisome to me. The question is: how far are Japan and China willing to go? There's a long history there, particularly in regard to Japan's treatment of the Chinese during WWII. I just can't bear the thought of a WWIII stemming from this, and I don't think Russia will be much help either with Putin in charge.

NickB79 (9,098 posts)

2. Without US intervention, Japan would lose, badly

The Chinese military would crush them. Japan, for all it's technological prowess, has very little in the way of military tech and equipment. It has a small Self-Defense Force, not much different from the US National Guard, but for almost all external threats it relies on the US for protection. And under the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan, the US is obligated to defend Japan from attacks. China is well-aware of this.
 
So, a more accurate title for the post would be "Are China and the US going to war?" I would say, no.

OldDem2012 (2,894 posts)

3. China may feel that the US is in such a weakened state that it will not back up Japan....

....despite their Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security. But, if China has miscalculated, any conflict between China and the US will be equally damaging because of the major trade/financial links between the two countries.
 
One would hope sanity prevails, but I'm not real optimistic.

Ya ****in' think?

Duer 157099 (15,934 posts)

7. If something like this happened

I wonder if that would finally spell the end of WalMart et al?

 

DevonRex (19,106 posts)

10. Meanwhile US corporations continue to enrich China.

On the last link there's another link about India protecting its border with China now, too, for the first time. So I guess they don't like what they've been seeing and hearing lately either. And from past experience after what happened with Tibet, of course.

And your savior keeps going in to debt to them.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022388814

[BlueStateSaint]

IIRC, the Taiwanese and the Japanese have a mutual-defense pact.  China hits the Japanese and the Taiwanese retaliate.  Then, the Chinese invade Taiwan.

That is how WWIII would start.  Then, Putin looks at all of the natural resources in the north of China . . . and the fact that the war footing is in the other direction . . .

[txradioguy]

IIRC, the Taiwanese and the Japanese have a mutual-defense pact.  China hits the Japanese and the Taiwanese retaliate.  Then, the Chinese invade Taiwan.

That is how WWIII would start.  Then, Putin looks at all of the natural resources in the north of China . . . and the fact that the war footing is in the other direction . . .

And while no one's looking North Korea begins their march to reunify the peninsula with only 1st Brigade 2ID in their way.

Then...thanks to sequestration we're completely incapable of reinforcing them or fulfilling ay of our mutual defense agreements in the Asian Pacific rim.

  

[RayRaytheSBS]

ananda (12,058 posts)

1. Major concern.

If the USA has promised to intervene on the behalf of Japan if hostilities with China escalate, will it honor that promise? This possibility is very worrisome to me. The question is: how far are Japan and China willing to go? There's a long history there, particularly in regard to Japan's treatment of the Chinese during WWII. I just can't bear the thought of a WWIII stemming from this, and I don't think Russia will be much help either with Putin in charge.


Quote
NickB79 (9,098 posts)

2. Without US intervention, Japan would lose, badly

The Chinese military would crush them. Japan, for all it's technological prowess, has very little in the way of military tech and equipment. It has a small Self-Defense Force, not much different from the US National Guard, but for almost all external threats it relies on the US for protection. And under the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan, the US is obligated to defend Japan from attacks. China is well-aware of this.
 
So, a more accurate title for the post would be "Are China and the US going to war?" I would say, no.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022388814

What the... so what you are saying is that even though we have said that we will support Japan if they are engaged in conflict, and they have gotten rid of the majority of their military, we don't need to back them up. You @#$%ing iIDIOT! We are OBLIGATED to support them.Why do you think we have Marines still stationed on Okinawa? Or does the word of the United States mean nothing? Oh wait.. that would mean you understand something like Honor and Integrity and doing what you say you will do. 

[BlueStateSaint]

And while no one's looking North Korea begins their march to reunify the peninsula with only 1st Brigade 2ID in their way.

Then...thanks to sequestration we're completely incapable of reinforcing them or fulfilling ay of our mutual defense agreements in the Asian Pacific rim.

  

What about the ROK stopping them?

[txradioguy]

What about the ROK stopping them?

It's a conscript army for the most part.  I wasn't too impressed with what I saw in 2005.  I may be wrong...but I don't think they'd offer the kind of resistance needed to stop the PRK Army.

[DumbAss Tanker]

Then...thanks to sequestration we're completely incapable of reinforcing them or fulfilling ay of our mutual defense agreements in the Asian Pacific rim.

  

Not really, in the first place any actual military response to an IRL threat is ex-budget, and in the second place, the sequestration would have to go on for a couple of years to have a real impact on readiness as opposed to being a mere political blunt instrument for the Dems to use against the GOP.  The real question would be whether Obama and his Chi-town gangsters and Beltway Buggers could rise to the occasion and actually do anything besides spaz out and try to blame the GOP and Bush for it.

The Chinese aren't morons and know that actual US military capability is not going to be affected for many months even if sequestration occurs.  Where they might decide to get adventurous is if they perceive that this is a chance to crush the Republicans and bolster an ineffective Dem administration that they can manhandle at will.  That could happen if their assessment is that if they attack after sequestration, Obama will use the sequestration as an excuse to do nothing and then blame the GOP for his own cowardice.  That way the Chinese could get a shot at their territorial objective while only having to deal with Japan, and cement a weak and easily-manipulated President's grip on power here.

[txradioguy]

The real question would be whether Obama and his Chi-town gangsters and Beltway Buggers could rise to the occasion and actually do anything besides spaz out and try to blame the GOP and Bush for it.

I don't see them doing anything.

That could happen if their assessment is that if they attack after sequestration, Obama will use the sequestration as an excuse to do nothing and then blame the GOP for his own cowardice.  That way the Chinese could get a shot at their territorial objective while only having to deal with Japan, and cement a weak and easily-manipulated President's grip on power here.

The sad part is that I can see this actually happening.

[DumbAss Tanker]

The sad part is that I can see this actually happening.

Yeah.  Me too.  On the other hand the DUmmies are not entirely correct about the JSDF, especially its naval and air components, which are much more capable vis-a-vis their Chinese counterparts than the DUmmies in that thread seem to realize.

[GOBUCKS]

Or does the word of the United States mean nothing? Oh wait.. that would mean you understand something like Honor and Integrity and doing what you say you will do.

Well, lots of people in Congresss seem to feel the "full faith and credit of the United States" is unimportant.

They would piss on it and allow a default.

[RayRaytheSBS]

Yeah.  Me too.  On the other hand the DUmmies are not entirely correct about the JSDF, especially its naval and air components, which are much more capable vis-a-vis their Chinese counterparts than the DUmmies in that thread seem to realize.

While it is true that the Japanse have a very good quality Self-Defense Force. When one is talking about China it is hard to ignore the sheer numbers they can field. Couple that with a hatred for what the Japanese did to them in WW II (Rape of Nanking anyone?) and it will still be pretty ugly war.

I think the Japanese would defend their country with skill and honor, but if the Chinese get a foothold, they will be hard pressed to be dislodged from the mainland of Japan without help. Perhaps this would be a good opportunity for Japan to unviel the Gundams we all know they have been working on for the past 30 years?

[RayRaytheSBS]

Well, lots of people in Congresss seem to feel the "full faith and credit of the United States" is unimportant.

They would piss on it and allow a default.

Sad, but true... 

[DumbAss Tanker]

While it is true that the Japanse have a very good quality Self-Defense Force. When one is talking about China it is hard to ignore the sheer numbers they can field. Couple that with a hatred for what the Japanese did to them in WW II (Rape of Nanking anyone?) and it will still be pretty ugly war.

China vs. Japan in a land battle on either one's home turf could really only have one outcome, obviously, but that's not consistent with the activity being reported. 

Actually invading Japan proper would involve the Chinese moving very large formations, not surreptitiously shifting one tank at a time down the road.  The kind of stuff they are doing is consistent with a surprise landing and takeover of the disputed island(s), not actually attacking the Home Islands, which is something that even Obama and Kerry would not be able to shrug off.  I don't see a main force land battle in the cards no matter how froggy the Chinese feel.  In an air-naval battle for the disputed land, though, the Japanese match up a lot more evenly with the Chinese than the DUmmies think.

[Vagabond]

What the... so what you are saying is that even though we have said that we will support Japan if they are engaged in conflict, and they have gotten rid of the majority of their military, we don't need to back them up. You @#$%ing iIDIOT! We are OBLIGATED to support them.Why do you think we have Marines still stationed on Okinawa? Or does the word of the United States mean nothing? Oh wait.. that would mean you understand something like Honor and Integrity and doing what you say you will do. 

Do the DUmmies, and modern democrats in general, words are nothing.  They are be used to connive and decieve those that can be decieved and then forgotten as soon as it becomes convenient.  Honor, Duty, and Self sacrifice means nothing to those pigs.

[RayRaytheSBS]

China vs. Japan in a land battle on either one's home turf could really only have one outcome, obviously, but that's not consistent with the activity being reported. 

Actually invading Japan proper would involve the Chinese moving very large formations, not surreptitiously shifting one tank at a time down the road.  The kind of stuff they are doing is consistent with a surprise landing and takeover of the disputed island(s), not actually attacking the Home Islands, which is something that even Obama and Kerry would not be able to shrug off.  I don't see a main force land battle in the cards no matter how froggy the Chinese feel.  In an air-naval battle for the disputed land, though, the Japanese match up a lot more evenly with the Chinese than the DUmmies think.

I agree on the Island dispute scenario that Japan would kick ass in an aerial battle. They have F-15J's which are still a damn good interceptor. I just was thinking worst case would be an invasion of the mainland of Japan. The Chinese have been sinking a lot of investment into their amphibious assault forces in the PLN. As an example, I give the Type 071 Amphibious Transport Dock.
Type 071

 While it can only hold a battalion of troops/ armor, it can facilitate the movement of other troops to the shore. Definitely gave me pause when I saw they had invested in these.

[RayRaytheSBS]

Do the DUmmies, and modern democrats in general, words are nothing.  They are be used to connive and decieve those that can be decieved and then forgotten as soon as it becomes convenient.  Honor, Duty, and Self sacrifice means nothing to those pigs.

I will say this much, Pres. Truman is rolling over in his grave now.. All that hard work, all that sacrifice the nation as a whole made to liberate the home islands, and these @#$! sticks will let it all go to waste. 

You do what you say you are going to do, or die trying. Or else, what good is your word?
 

[delilahmused]

What the... so what you are saying is that even though we have said that we will support Japan if they are engaged in conflict, and they have gotten rid of the majority of their military, we don't need to back them up. You @#$%ing iIDIOT! We are OBLIGATED to support them.Why do you think we have Marines still stationed on Okinawa? Or does the word of the United States mean nothing? Oh wait.. that would mean you understand something like Honor and Integrity and doing what you say you will do. 

Actually, the Marines are moving out of Okinawa (that doesn't negate the treaty but the Japanese aren't particularly wild about us being there). About 5000 are going to Guam and the rest will be spread out in other places around the Pacific.

Cindie

[BlueStateSaint]

IIRC, the Japanese Navy has some first-rate destroyers.  Also, IIRC, the Japanese Navy has always had some first-rate destroyer captains. They'd most likely extract a rather heavy toll from the Chinese amphibious forces.  Maybe not enough to win, but they'd kill a lot of 'em.

[RayRaytheSBS]

Actually, the Marines are moving out of Okinawa (that doesn't negate the treaty but the Japanese aren't particularly wild about us being there). About 5000 are going to Guam and the rest will be spread out in other places around the Pacific.

Cindie

I was unaware of that, thanks for pointing it out. I wonder if the SF bn in Camp Zama on the mainland has been effected as well?

[NHSparky]

It's a conscript army for the most part.  I wasn't too impressed with what I saw in 2005.  I may be wrong...but I don't think they'd offer the kind of resistance needed to stop the PRK Army.

True that.  Most Koreans are 2-3 generations removed from having their asses rolled over.  Even when I first went there in the late 1980's there really wasn't the sense of urgency or concern one would expect from having a few hundred thousand troops less than a couple hours drive from your capital and largest city, with basically a token force between them and you.

Shades of Task Force Smith all over again.

Throw in the fact that now we're not overhauling multiple carriers, delaying building SSN's, etc...yeah, all is good.../sarc

[DumbAss Tanker]

True that.  Most Koreans are 2-3 generations removed from having their asses rolled over.  Even when I first went there in the late 1980's there really wasn't the sense of urgency or concern one would expect from having a few hundred thousand troops less than a couple hours drive from your capital and largest city, with basically a token force between them and you.

Shades of Task Force Smith all over again.

Throw in the fact that now we're not overhauling multiple carriers, delaying building SSN's, etc...yeah, all is good.../sarc

In a weird paradoxical sort of way, not starting to tear something up for a scheduled rebuild actually makes it more available for short-notice emergency use.

[NHSparky]

In a weird paradoxical sort of way, not starting to tear something up for a scheduled rebuild actually makes it more available for short-notice emergency use.

Well, in most cases, you'd be right, but for one little problem--it's a bit more difficult to refuel a nuke than it is a conventional asset, and that's what the Lincoln and GW were going in for in addition to complex overhaul.  Once that reactor plant (plants, plural--Nimitz-class have two A4W plants) is Xenon-precluded, you're DONE.  Dumping a hunk of Uranium in the core just ain't gonna do it anymore.

I've no idea what the core life in EFPH (Effective Full Power Hours) for an A4W plant would be, but you've got to consider that the TR is currently in RCOH (since 2010) and was about 24-25 years old when she hit the drydock, and Lincoln and GW are 24 and 21 years old, respectively, they're due.

[DumbAss Tanker]

I don't know the tech details on it either, Sparky, but dollars to doughnuts there is a margin of safety on them that would easily handle a three-month emergency deployment for an operational contingency.

[98ZJUSMC]

I've no idea what the core life in EFPH (Effective Full Power Hours) for an A4W plant would be, but you've got to consider that the TR is currently in RCOH (since 2010) and was about 24-25 years old when she hit the drydock, and Lincoln and GW are 24 and 21 years old, respectively, they're due.

How time flies.  That just struck me.   

[98ZJUSMC]

IIRC, the Japanese Navy has some first-rate destroyers.  Also, IIRC, the Japanese Navy has always had some first-rate destroyer captains. They'd most likely extract a rather heavy toll from the Chinese amphibious forces.  Maybe not enough to win, but they'd kill a lot of 'em.

Over water Force Projection is a difficult proposition, at best.  Without some type of vertical envelopment, airborne deep strike, the JNs would extract a very heavy toll on Chinese assault shipping.  To me, it would depend on the JASDF attaining a high kill ratio and somehow achieving local air superiority.  I don't think they have the numbers, by themselves, to do that.

Quote from: NHSparky on Today at 01:20:20 pm
True that.  Most Koreans are 2-3 generations removed from having their asses rolled over.  Even when I first went there in the late 1980's there really wasn't the sense of urgency or concern one would expect from having a few hundred thousand troops less than a couple hours drive from your capital and largest city, with basically a token force between them and you.

Shades of Task Force Smith all over again.

They were very concerned in the late 70's and deadly serious.  Sad, in a way, to watch them culturally prostrate themselves due to indifference.  The left has thoroughly infected ROK education, since that time.