Poll Shows Romney Leading Obama among Jews: Mitt 44% to Obama 40%

[Mr Mannn]

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/160788#.UHdPalEookk

A tracking poll published Thursday by TIPP for Investors' Business Daily shows the hard-to-believe statistic of 44% support for Mitt Romney among likely Jewish voters, versus 40% for Obama, with 16% undecided.

I can't find a jaw drop smiley. There goes Florida and possibly New York...

[Kyle Ricky]

I am shocked !!

[BigTex]

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/160788#.UHdPalEookk
I can't find a jaw drop smiley. There goes Florida and possibly New York...

they dont make up enough of the population to swing either of those states. Romney already has a decent lead in FL and its a lost cause in NY.

[YupItsMe]

They should be 80% Romney, 20% Obama if they knew what was good for them.  I can't believe it's not higher with the recent snub of Bibi

[NHSparky]

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/160788#.UHdPalEookk
I can't find a jaw drop smiley. There goes Florida and possibly New York...

Florida, yes.  New York, no.  Single digits perhaps, but still in the Obama column.

[Lacarnut]

A Jewish majority for Romney is amazing. Has that ever happened?

[DumbAss Tanker]

they dont make up enough of the population to swing either of those states. Romney already has a decent lead in FL and its a lost cause in NY.

You have to look beyond the single demographic of religion in this.  They matter a lot more than you think in FL, because they represent a disproportionate number of seniors, and that says a lot about how much traction the Mediscare strategy is getting.  In NY, they are very disproportionately down-staters, in the greater NYC area, and Romney's strength with them there indicates a weakness for Obama in what should be about the third safest venue he has east of the Mississippi (After Chicago and DC).

[Lacarnut]

You have to look beyond the single demographic of religion in this.  They matter a lot more than you think in FL, because they represent a disproportionate number of seniors, and that says a lot about how much traction the Mediscare strategy is getting.  In NY, they are very disproportionately down-staters, in the greater NYC area, and Romney's strength with them there indicates a weakness for Obama in what should be about the third safest venue he has east of the Mississippi (After Chicago and DC).

I concur. Romney will do much better in blue states like NY than most people think. Romney is going to win big and the race will be called early in his favor.

[BlueStateSaint]

I concur. Romney will do much better in blue states like NY than most people think. Romney is going to win big and the race will be called early in his favor.

I'd love to see NY be a 6-8 point state.

[BigTex]

You have to look beyond the single demographic of religion in this.  They matter a lot more than you think in FL, because they represent a disproportionate number of seniors, and that says a lot about how much traction the Mediscare strategy is getting.  In NY, they are very disproportionately down-staters, in the greater NYC area, and Romney's strength with them there indicates a weakness for Obama in what should be about the third safest venue he has east of the Mississippi (After Chicago and DC).

I agree that it might have other implications but 44% of jewish voters in FL will get Romney about .2% than the average republcian jewish vote. I guarantee that FL will be decided by more than .2%

[thundley4]

  They matter a lot more than you think in FL, because they represent a disproportionate number of seniors, and that says a lot about how much traction the Mediscare strategy is getting..

I heard something several times on the radio news today having to do with Medicare and ObamaCare.  Locally and maybe throughout Illinois, they are having meetings mainly for seniors about the new healthcare law, and how it affects and helps those seniors that use it the most.

University of Illinois Professor educates seniors on the Affordable Care Act

DECATUR-- While much attention has been paid to the Affordable Care Act and how it will affect the younger generations in the coming years, a group that will begin being affected by it immediately are seniors.  University of Illinois Law Professor Richard Kaplan spoke to seniors yesterday during a presentation at the Decatur Club and said the effect of the Affordable Care act will differ with nearly every person…



Kaplan says that seniors who require a lot of medical care will receive the most benefits, while those who do not, won’t see hardly as much.  Open enrollment in the new Medicare program begins on Monday; to find out more information on all the plans offered go to medicare.gov.

  http://wsoyam.com/pages/14496373.php?contentType=4&contentId=11618679

[NHSparky]

I agree that it might have other implications but 44% of jewish voters in FL will get Romney about .2% than the average republcian jewish vote. I guarantee that FL will be decided by more than .2%

Haven't been to West Palm Beach, Miami, or Broward County lately, have ya?

The Jewish population in Florida is well over a million.  Even if only 500K vote, a 40-point swing (they voted 78-22 for Obama in 2008) is 200K votes.  NOT 0.2 percent.

[Mr Mannn]

For those of you who just are not sure of how important this could be, understand two things:

1) Gore lost Florida because 90,000 votes went to the Ralph Nader's Green Party. Several hundred thousand Jewish voters CAN make a difference.

2) These are traditional democrat voters. Likely they have NEVER voted for a republican...never ever. If they are abandoning their traditional ticket, then so are other democrats. Jews are leaving their party and they won't be going alone.

[Jasonw560]

I'd love to see NY be a 6-8 point state.

Same here. I'd love to see The People's Republik of Kalifornia be about 8-10.

[Dori]

Same here. I'd love to see The People's Republik of Kalifornia be about 8-10.

Last I saw, Obama had a 14 point lead in Calif....down from 22 in '08.

8 points.....that's got to say something about Obama anyway...even if    California is still nuts.

[RobJohnson]

I heard something several times on the radio news today having to do with Medicare and ObamaCare.  Locally and maybe throughout Illinois, they are having meetings mainly for seniors about the new healthcare law, and how it affects and helps those seniors that use it the most.
  http://wsoyam.com/pages/14496373.php?contentType=4&contentId=11618679

I seen a retired full time union secretary for the UAW in which her husband was the local president bragging on facebook about how they were getting seniors fired up in the Villages, FL about Romney/Ryan trying to take away Medicare...

That same UAW local they both worked for helped close down CASE-IH in East Moline, IL when New Holland bought it and moved it to a non union plant in Grand Island, NE....   I wish the people they were lying to knew the real history of their early retirement.

[BigTex]

Haven't been to West Palm Beach, Miami, or Broward County lately, have ya?

The Jewish population in Florida is well over a million.  Even if only 500K vote, a 40-point swing (they voted 78-22 for Obama in 2008) is 200K votes.  NOT 0.2 percent.

Jewish voters made up 2% of Floridas electorate in 08, not even enough to get a % for Obama/McCain on the exit poll. Even if they were at the 22% national figure for McCain (Im sure they were a bit higher) thats a 22 point difference from Romneys 44% in this poll. Thats a .44% shift

[BigTex]

For those of you who just are not sure of how important this could be, understand two things:

1) Gore lost Florida because 90,000 votes went to the Ralph Nader's Green Party. Several hundred thousand Jewish voters CAN make a difference.

If Florida is decided by the 700 votes it was in 2000 then you can bet Romney lost OH and VA and lost the election.

[NHSparky]

Jewish voters made up 2% of Floridas electorate in 08, not even enough to get a % for Obama/McCain on the exit poll. Even if they were at the 22% national figure for McCain (Im sure they were a bit higher) thats a 22 point difference from Romneys 44% in this poll. Thats a .44% shift

I think you may want to look at the demographics of Florida again.  You're a bit off.  The total US Jewish population is a bit over 2 percent.  In Florida it's almost 6 percent.  In some parts of Florida like Palm Beach County it's pushing 15 percent.

[BigTex]

I think you may want to look at the demographics of Florida again.  You're a bit off.  The total US Jewish population is a bit over 2 percent.  In Florida it's almost 6 percent.  In some parts of Florida like Palm Beach County it's pushing 15 percent.

It doesnt matter how many Jewish people there are living in Florida, only how many of them vote. Even if you go by the 2004 turnout (where Bush only got 20% of the Jewish vote) they made up 5% of the voters in FL. Thats still only 1.1%. If Romney needs that 1.1% to win Florida then hes lost the election. The Jewish shift s significant in that it shows a trend of traditional Democrats leaving Obama but the votes themselves are insignificant to the national outcome.

[NHSparky]

the votes themselves are insignificant to the national outcome.

Al Gore would argue that with you.

[BigTex]

Al Gore would argue that with you.

This isnt 2000. We know FL isnt the key state, Romney cant win without it but its much more secure than OH or VA

[NHSparky]

This isnt 2000. We know FL isnt the key state, Romney cant win without it but its much more secure than OH or VA

Secure?  Define secure.  And show me a scenario where Romney loses FL but still gets the White House.

EVERY state is critical, scooter.  Every. ****ing. One.

[BigTex]

Secure?  Define secure.  And show me a scenario where Romney loses FL but still gets the White House.

EVERY state is critical, scooter.  Every. ****ing. One.

I didnt say Florida is secure is said its MORE secure. Meaning if Romney only wins Florida by less than 1.1% then he has lost OH and VA and the election. Im not sure why I have to type it twice other than your eyes are going bad old man.

[NHSparky]

I didnt say Florida is secure is said its MORE secure. Meaning if Romney only wins Florida by less than 1.1% then he has lost OH and VA and the election. Im not sure why I have to type it twice other than your eyes are going bad old man.

Yeah, demographics, people leaving states, people moving to states, none of that shit matters.

And no, Florida, like Ohio, Michigan, PA, NH, and about 8 others, is in play, hence why they're called "SWING" states.

Write that on your forehead and stare in the mirror until it makes sense, old man.