The Latest Polls

[Kyle Ricky]

How does Romney get over 300 EVs if he loses every state?

  I meant to say WIN every state that he is tied with obama on ... Thanks for noticing that. i will correct it.

[Ballygrl]

Here's a good article talking about polling in Cuyahoga County Ohio, it's a little long but does a good job in breaking down the polls for this mostly Democrat County:

http://www.electioninsight.biz/news.html

[Jasonw560]

I meant to say WIN every state that he is tied with obama on ... Thanks for noticing that. i will correct it.

No problem.

I think he'll come close, if not at 300.

[YupItsMe]

I'm the pessimist.  I get Romney up to 261 giving him VA, NC, NH & CO, but Obama PA and OH.   I think the "fix" is already in Ohio and PA too far away.  Only way I can get Romney over 270 is picking up 6 e-votes each from IA and NV.  Ohio polls don't calculate fraud. If they asked "How many people are you voting for?" and still came up tied at 48=48 I'd feel a lot more comfortable.

[Ausonius]

I'm the pessimist.  I get Romney up to 261 giving him VA, NC, NH & CO, but Obama PA and OH.   I think the "fix" is already in Ohio and PA too far away.  Only way I can get Romney over 270 is picking up 6 e-votes each from IA and NV.  Ohio polls don't calculate fraud. If they asked "How many people are you voting for?" and still came up tied at 48=48 I'd feel a lot more comfortable.

As an Ohioan I can verify that fraud is always a problem where Dems are in charge, like in Cleveland and Toledo.  We will see what happens however: Afro-American pastors are not supporting MAObama, and that might be just enough to offset the fraud known to occur.

I have a sense that the election might not be close here after all, that Romney is actually farther ahead than it seems, but the sense is not based anything other than anecdotal evidence. 

[Jasonw560]

As an Ohioan I can verify that fraud is always a problem where Dems are in charge, like in Cleveland and Toledo.  We will see what happens however: Afro-American pastors are not supporting MAObama, and that might be just enough to offset the fraud known to occur.

I have a sense that the election might not be close here after all, that Romney is actually farther ahead than it seems, but the sense is not based anything other than anecdotal evidence. 

Just find a picture of his last rally in OH...at least 12,000 by one estimate.

[BigTex]

Gravis - Iowa
D +6 Poll: Obama 50, Romney 46

Gravis - Nevada
D +9 Poll: Obama 50, Romney 49

Sunshine State News - Florida
D +1 Poll: Romney 51, Obama 46

[Ausonius]

Just find a picture of his last rally in OH...at least 12,000 by one estimate.

Yesterday here in Columbus, yes, 12,000 or so, including some of my students and their families.  One of them, a girl in my Latin II class, shook Romney's hand after the rally.

[debk]

Wonder how the polls are going to change as more and more of the Benghazi story comes out?

[Kyle Ricky]

Wonder how the polls are going to change as more and more of the Benghazi story comes out?

They should shift more to Romney. Today's Benghazi is 1979's Iran Hostage Situation. Carter lost because of it, and this will be one of the reasons obama loses.

[Ausonius]

They should shift more to Romney. Today's Benghazi is 1979's Iran Hostage Situation. Carter lost because of it, and this will be one of the reasons obama loses.

You would hope that such would be the case, but the Kool-Aid is already spiked!  One of my unenlightened colleagues already has the excuse: "Oh now this is just ridiculous!  You can't expect a person to order troops around when they don'treally know what's happening at the time."

And when you counter with "But they did REALLY know what was happening" the answer is "No, no, no!  They were just getting the CIA's opinions!  They needed time to sift through all the contradictions!"

Sigh!  Ignorance is bliss!

[Jasonw560]

You would hope that such would be the case, but the Kool-Aid is already spiked!  One of my unenlightened colleagues already has the excuse: "Oh now this is just ridiculous!  You can't expect a person to order troops around when they don'treally know what's happening at the time."

And when you counter with "But they did REALLY know what was happening" the answer is "No, no, no!  They were just getting the CIA's opinions!  They needed time to sift through all the contradictions!"

Sigh!  Ignorance is bliss!

Then that person is the happiest person on earth.

[debk]

You would hope that such would be the case, but the Kool-Aid is already spiked!  One of my unenlightened colleagues already has the excuse: "Oh now this is just ridiculous!  You can't expect a person to order troops around when they don'treally know what's happening at the time."

And when you counter with "But they did REALLY know what was happening" the answer is "No, no, no!  They were just getting the CIA's opinions!  They needed time to sift through all the contradictions!"

Sigh!  Ignorance is bliss!

So many people have already voted too.

I don't understand how people can see the videos, the emails, and so on...and not believe what happened.

Course the fact that Fox News is about the only one covering it, has a lot to do with the lack of knowledge too. At some point, MSM is going to be forced to cover this. It's getting too huge to avoid.

[Ausonius]

So many people have already voted too.

I don't understand how people can see the videos, the emails, and so on...and not believe what happened.

Course the fact that Fox News is about the only one covering it, has a lot to do with the lack of knowledge too. At some point, MSM is going to be forced to cover this. It's getting too huge to avoid.

We will see if the Sunday morning news shows follow the story.  If 60 Minutes had any integrity left, any sense of the role of the press outside of the idea that it serves as a left-wing shill, they would be advertising this as their main story.

Nice fantasy!

[Kyle Ricky]

I just did a electoral college count on the map on RCP. What I did was take all the swing states that obama was ahead in and gave them a leaning obama tag, and the swing states that Romney was ahead in and gave them a leaning Romney tag.

This is what I got - obama: 281 | Romney: 257

You can do the same thing here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html#previous_changes

With the no toss up option, RCP is giving obama 290 and Romney 248 ... I wonder if that is with over sampling Dems? It probably is.

[BlueStateSaint]

Let's also remember the "enthusiasm gap," which isn't in any of the poll results . . . because it won't be measured until Election Day.  At last (Gallup) check, the Republicans were up 16 points.

[Jasonw560]

So many people have already voted too.

I don't understand how people can see the videos, the emails, and so on...and not believe what happened.

Course the fact that Fox News is about the only one covering it, has a lot to do with the lack of knowledge too. At some point, MSM is going to be forced to cover this. It's getting too huge to avoid.

Oh, look at the libtard friends of mine on my FB page crying, "9/11 killed 3,000 and Bush knew!! And this is just 4 people! These things happen. The right is just politicizing it because you want Obama to fail."

[Ausonius]

Oh, look at the libtard friends of mine on my FB page crying, "9/11 killed 3,000 and Bush knew!! And this is just 4 people! These things happen. The right is just politicizing it because you want Obama to fail."

The MSM is hiding this scandal: 307 Million Americans should be smelling the pustulating stench from this scandal, but the MSM has no shame about shilling for the criminals at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

See this about how the CIA refuses to take the fall: they gave no stand-down order to prevent a rescue:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/petraeus-throws-obama-under-bus_657896.html

[docstew]

The MSM is hiding this scandal: 307 Million Americans should be smelling the pustulating stench from this scandal, but the MSM has no shame about shilling for the criminals at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

See this about how the CIA refuses to take the fall: they gave no stand-down order to prevent a rescue:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/petraeus-throws-obama-under-bus_657896.html

Like I said earlier: try and throw a Ranger under the bus, he's gonna roll out the other side after putting a thermite grenade on it.

[BigTex]

Gravis - Virginia
D +8 Poll: Romney 48, Obama 48

WaPo - Virginia
Ind 35%, Dem 31%, GOP 27% Poll: Obama 51, Romney 47

[Kyle Ricky]

I am here by done with RealClearPolitics.com ... They are shills for obama.

I looked at the latest Realclearpolitics polls between obama and Romney. Romney is ahead in SIX of them from between a 1 to 5 point margin. obama is ahead in THREE by a 1 to 3 point margin. In one poll they are tied. RCP HAS THEM AVERAGED AS BEING A TIE! That is so utterly false that I can't even describe how stupid it is. These polls are trying everything they can put obama ahead. It is making them all look like morons ..

Here:

RCP Average   10/15 - 10/27   --   --   47.9   47.0   Romney +0.9
Rasmussen Reports   10/25 - 10/27   1500 LV   3.0   50   47   Romney +3
ABC News/Wash Post   10/23 - 10/26   1295 LV   3.5   49   48   Romney +1
IBD/TIPP   10/21 - 10/26   930 LV   3.5   45   47   Obama +2
Gallup   10/20 - 10/26   2700 LV   2.0   51   46   Romney +5
Associated Press/GfK   10/19 - 10/23   839 LV   4.2   47   45   Romney +2
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun   10/18 - 10/21   1402 LV   2.6   48   45   Romney +3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   10/17 - 10/20   816 LV   3.4   47   47   Tie
CBS News   10/17 - 10/20   790 LV   4.0   46   48   Obama +2
WashTimes/JZ Analytics*   10/18 - 10/20   800 LV   3.5   47   50   Obama +3
Politico/GWU/Battleground   10/15 - 10/18   1000 LV   3.1   49   47   Romney +2

I tell you come. Next Tuesday, there are a lot of shills who are going to be getting a rude awakening.

[BigTex]

I am here by done with RealClearPolitics.com ... They are shills for obama.

I looked at the latest Realclearpolitics polls between obama and Romney. Romney is ahead in SIX of them from between a 1 to 5 point margin. obama is ahead in THREE by a 1 to 3 point margin. In one poll they are tied. RCP HAS THEM AVERAGED AS BEING A TIE! That is so utterly false that I can't even describe how stupid it is. These polls are trying everything they can put obama ahead. It is making them all look like morons ..

are you disputing the math or the polls? RCP isnt partisan, but they are also at the mercy of the polls. they dont choose which polls to use and which ones to toss. They show them all and let people make their own opinions.

[Kyle Ricky]

are you disputing the math or the polls? RCP isnt partisan, but they are also at the mercy of the polls. they dont choose which polls to use and which ones to toss. They show them all and let people make their own opinions.

The math. I don't see how Romney being ahead by a 1 to 5 point margin in six polls can be even with obama only being by a 1 to 3 margin in three of them. It doesn't add up.

[BigTex]

The math. I don't see how Romney being ahead by a 1 to 5 point margin in six polls can be even with obama only being by a 1 to 3 margin in three of them. It doesn't add up.

It does add up

here are the 10 polls

Romney +5
Romney +3
Romney +3
Romney +2
Romney +2
Romney +1

Tie

Obama +2
Obama +2
Obama +3

Romney total +16
Obama total +7

difference Romney +9 / 10 polls = Romney +.9

RCP Average   10/15 - 10/27   --   --   47.9   47.0   Romney +0.9

[Kyle Ricky]

It does add up

here are the 10 polls

Romney +5
Romney +3
Romney +3
Romney +2
Romney +2
Romney +1

Tie

Obama +2
Obama +2
Obama +3

Romney total +16
Obama total +7

difference Romney +9 / 10 polls = Romney +.9

I don't see how that adds up. Unless they are eliminating the tie margins.