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Offline franksolich

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Atman can see
« on: August 23, 2012, 05:29:41 PM »
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021179863

Oh my.

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Panasonic (487 posts)

CU forecasters predict a Romney presidency

http://www.9news.com/news/article/284598/339/CU-forecasters-predict-a-Romney-presidency

DENVER (AP) - Two University of Colorado professors have devised a model to predict who will win the presidential election under current economic circumstances.

The victor, they say, will be Republican Mitt Romney.

The model uses economic indicators from all 50 states to predict the race's outcome. The forecast calls for Romney to win 320 electoral votes out of 538.

---

Cracksmokers - all of them.

The forecasters keep forgetting the key factors - Republican obstructionism. All Republican ideologies should be completely rejected.

It's actually favoring Obama - all swing states will pick him, and reject Rmoney and Rayn outright.

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LondonReign2 (1,301 posts)

1. Sure

If this election was based on nothing but economic factors, then sure, they might be correct. Fortunately there is a lot more than goes into it.

Like, you know, who actually CAUSED the current set of economic factors.

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Atman (24,433 posts)

2. They must have factored in states with electronic voting machines.

That is the only way I can see this Neanderthal getting elected.

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russspeakeasy (4,547 posts)

4. Watch it Atman. I know some Neanderthal's and they are pretty pissed at you right now.

Hmmm.  I wonder who that might be.

We over here at conservativecave are laughing at Pedro Picasso.

It's hard to be pissed at somebody one's laughing at.

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southernyankeebelle (7,053 posts)

3. With voter suppression is the only way I see him winning. I just can't believe people will vote Mittens in to repeat the Bush administration.

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ProfessorGAC (23,687 posts)

5. I Bet Dollars To Donuts This Model Wouldn't Pass A Peer Review

It sounds like they fashioned a model to fit the results from past elections and then claim they can extrapolate forward. Rule of thumb in statistics: One can always safely interpolate, but should always be wary of extrapolation.

The other piece they left out, glaringly, is the campaigning ability of each candidate and the charisma factor.

In politics, leaving those two things out practically make any such prediction valueless.
GAC

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flamingdem (16,014 posts)

7. breaking news: Witch doctors in gazimbia predict a Romney win

whatevuh!

breaking news: primitives on Skins's island predict an 0bama win.
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apres moi, le deluge

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Offline Chris_

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Re: Atman can see
« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2012, 05:30:42 PM »
Another lurking DUmmy comes out of the closet.  Hi DUmmy!
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Offline Randy

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Re: Atman can see
« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2012, 05:50:12 PM »
I'm worried he'll be more Obambam than Bush. But that won't stop the foaming and shit throwing they'll do at the DUmp.
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Offline Mike220

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Re: Atman can see
« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2012, 05:58:39 PM »
IIRC, this model correctly predicted the last several races. Doesn't mean it can't be wrong, but they've got a higher batting average than the DUmmies.
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Offline BlueStateSaint

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Re: Atman can see
« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2012, 06:34:35 PM »
Quote from: Mike220 on August 23, 2012, 05:58:39 PM
IIRC, this model correctly predicted the last several races. Doesn't mean it can't be wrong, but they've got a higher batting average than the DUmmies.

Yup.  From 1980 onward, at least that long.
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Offline jukin

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Re: Atman can see
« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2012, 06:37:08 PM »
Quote from: Mike220 on August 23, 2012, 05:58:39 PM
IIRC, this model correctly predicted the last several races. Doesn't mean it can't be wrong, but they've got a higher batting average than the DUmmies.

Correctly predicted all of the presidential elections since 1980. This is far more a real and proven theory than AGW. Unlike AGW, this model has been predictive.

However, I still am sticking with 352/186 electoral.
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When you are the beneficiary of someone’s kindness and generosity, it produces a sense of gratitude and community.

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Offline RobJohnson

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Re: Atman can see
« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2012, 06:59:23 PM »
Quote
electronic voting machines.

No wonder I am stuck with Harry Reid in Nevada.  :thatsright:
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Offline thundley4

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Re: Atman can see
« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2012, 07:17:25 PM »
Quote from: RobJohnson on August 23, 2012, 06:59:23 PM
No wonder I am stuck with Harry Reid in Nevada.  :thatsright:

SEIU counts the votes there.
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Offline Ballygrl

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University of Colorado prediction model points to big Romney win
« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2012, 12:34:09 PM »


http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/23/university-of-colorado-prediction-model-points-to-big-romney-win
 
08/23/2012

University of Colorado prediction model points to big Romney win

<snippet>

Quote
A presidential election prediction model developed by two University of Colorado professors points to a big win for GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney in November.

The model, the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980.

It predicts Romney winning the electoral college by a 320-218 margin and winning 52.9 percent of the popular vote when only the two major parties’ candidates are considered, the Associated Press reported Thursday.

Romney, it concluded, will win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2012, 12:37:28 PM by Ballygrl »
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Offline Ralph Wiggum

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Re: Re: Atman can see
« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2012, 01:15:37 PM »
I will reserve judgment until Truth-is-All runs his Monte Carlo simulations.  Hell, TIA can prove that Mondale actually won in 1984.
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Offline BlueStateSaint

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Re: Re: Atman can see
« Reply #10 on: September 07, 2012, 01:21:34 PM »
Quote from: Ralph Wiggum on September 07, 2012, 01:15:37 PM
I will reserve judgment until Truth-is-All runs his Monte Carlo simulations.  Hell, TIA can prove that Mondale actually won in 1984.

I think I saw that mass of fecal matter.  Remind me, with a link . . .
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"Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of Liberty." - Thomas Jefferson

"All you have to do is look straight and see the road, and when you see it, don't sit looking at it - walk!" -Ayn Rand
 
"Those that trust God with their safety must yet use proper means for their safety, otherwise they tempt Him, and do not trust Him.  God will provide, but so must we also." - Matthew Henry, Commentary on 2 Chronicles 32, from Matthew Henry's Commentary on the Whole Bible

"These anti-gun fools are more dangerous to liberty than street criminals or foreign spies."--Theodore Haas, Dachau Survivor

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Offline Ralph Wiggum

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Re: Re: Re: Re: Atman can see
« Reply #11 on: September 07, 2012, 01:26:05 PM »
Quote from: BlueStateSaint on September 07, 2012, 01:21:34 PM
I think I saw that mass of fecal matter.  Remind me, with a link . . .

http://richardcharnin.com/
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Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: University of Colorado prediction model points to big Romney win
« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2012, 01:34:46 PM »
Quote from: Ballygrl on September 07, 2012, 12:34:09 PM


http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/23/university-of-colorado-prediction-model-points-to-big-romney-win
 
08/23/2012

University of Colorado prediction model points to big Romney win

<snippet>


That is about what I would say, although I would add Michigan and Nevada to it also. They are a toss up of course, but It wouldn't surprise me if Romney both of those states as well.

What would be really pants is if obama loses Illinois. :lmao:
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Offline Gina

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Re: University of Colorado prediction model points to big Romney win
« Reply #13 on: September 07, 2012, 02:19:06 PM »
Quote from: Ballygrl on September 07, 2012, 12:34:09 PM



Jesus that is a beautiful sight.  So are all those states just bigot filled or are they logical people?   :popcorn:
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Offline BlueStateSaint

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Re: University of Colorado prediction model points to big Romney win
« Reply #14 on: September 07, 2012, 02:25:13 PM »
Quote from: Kyle Ricky on September 07, 2012, 01:34:46 PM
That is about what I would say, although I would add Michigan and Nevada to it also. They are a toss up of course, but It wouldn't surprise me if Romney both of those states as well.

What would be really pants is if obama loses Illinois. :lmao:
I saw a model last week--I wish I could remember where--that had Nevada, Oregon, New Mexico, Iowa, and Michigan all red, in addition to the ones in the CU model.

That would be epic. O-) :yahoo:
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"Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of Liberty." - Thomas Jefferson

"All you have to do is look straight and see the road, and when you see it, don't sit looking at it - walk!" -Ayn Rand
 
"Those that trust God with their safety must yet use proper means for their safety, otherwise they tempt Him, and do not trust Him.  God will provide, but so must we also." - Matthew Henry, Commentary on 2 Chronicles 32, from Matthew Henry's Commentary on the Whole Bible

"These anti-gun fools are more dangerous to liberty than street criminals or foreign spies."--Theodore Haas, Dachau Survivor

Chase her.
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That's the only way you'll be assured to never lose her.

Offline Chris_

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Re: Atman can see
« Reply #15 on: September 07, 2012, 02:32:18 PM »
In 2008, Obama won Iowa, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Vermont by 200,000 votes or less.

I don't know what percentage of likely voters that is for each state, but it doesn't sound like a lot to me.
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Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: University of Colorado prediction model points to big Romney win
« Reply #16 on: September 07, 2012, 02:37:50 PM »
Quote from: BlueStateSaint on September 07, 2012, 02:25:13 PM
I saw a model last week--I wish I could remember where--that had Nevada, Oregon, New Mexico, Iowa, and Michigan all red, in addition to the ones in the CU model.

That would be epic. O-) :yahoo:

That would somewhat remind me of this map ..



Eisenhower got 442 EV, and Stevenson got 89 ...
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Offline Ralph Wiggum

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Re: Re: Re: Atman can see
« Reply #17 on: September 07, 2012, 02:38:24 PM »
Quote from: Chris_ on September 07, 2012, 02:32:18 PM
In 2008, Obama won Iowa, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Vermont by 200,000 votes or less.

I don't know what percentage of likely voters that is for each state, but it doesn't sound like a lot to me.

Just a suspicion...but Obumbler wouldn't be wasting time in such a small electoral state such as Iowa if their internal polls showed they weren't in trouble.  He's been here a ton lately, as have Romney & Ryan.
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Offline BlueStateSaint

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Re: Re: Re: Atman can see
« Reply #18 on: September 07, 2012, 02:41:33 PM »
Quote from: Ralph Wiggum on September 07, 2012, 02:38:24 PM
Just a suspicion...but Obumbler wouldn't be wasting time in such a small electoral state such as Iowa if their internal polls showed they weren't in trouble.  He's been here a ton lately, as have Romney & Ryan.

I concur.  H5.

I think that if lots of wealthy libs on the Upper West Side of Manhattan start wavering, and there's evidence to suggest that some are, New York could see a visit from Teh Obamessiah.
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"Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of Liberty." - Thomas Jefferson

"All you have to do is look straight and see the road, and when you see it, don't sit looking at it - walk!" -Ayn Rand
 
"Those that trust God with their safety must yet use proper means for their safety, otherwise they tempt Him, and do not trust Him.  God will provide, but so must we also." - Matthew Henry, Commentary on 2 Chronicles 32, from Matthew Henry's Commentary on the Whole Bible

"These anti-gun fools are more dangerous to liberty than street criminals or foreign spies."--Theodore Haas, Dachau Survivor

Chase her.
Chase her even when she's yours.
That's the only way you'll be assured to never lose her.

Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: Atman can see
« Reply #19 on: September 07, 2012, 02:41:44 PM »
Then there is also this map ...





Reagan: 489 - Carter: 49 ... I would love to see that again.
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Offline franksolich

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Re: Re: Re: Atman can see
« Reply #20 on: September 07, 2012, 02:43:26 PM »
Quote from: Ralph Wiggum on September 07, 2012, 02:38:24 PM
Just a suspicion...but Obumbler wouldn't be wasting time in such a small electoral state such as Iowa if their internal polls showed they weren't in trouble.  He's been here a ton lately, as have Romney & Ryan.

Iowa.....and there's New Hampshire.

That's six electoral votes and four, respectively.

And one assumes much of the "crowds" in New Hampshire consist of 0bama-worshippers from Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, given that they're all such miniature states and it's a half-hour drive to get from one to the other.
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apres moi, le deluge

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Offline Skul

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Re: Atman can see
« Reply #21 on: September 07, 2012, 03:03:03 PM »
Minnesota flip to red?
Nah, the smurfs of Minniecrapolis out-number regular people working for a living.
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Offline Ballygrl

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Re: Atman can see
« Reply #22 on: September 07, 2012, 03:13:54 PM »
The article mentions possibly New Mexico going red if the 3rd party folks come out strong to vote for a 3rd party candidate.
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Offline Ballygrl

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Re: Atman can see
« Reply #23 on: September 07, 2012, 03:15:15 PM »
Oooops, sorry, didn't realize this was already posted.
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"The nation that couldn’t be conquered by foreign enemies has been conquered by its elected officials" odawg Free Republic in reference to the GOP Elites who are no difference than the Democrats

Offline Ralph Wiggum

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Re: Re: Re: Atman can see
« Reply #24 on: September 07, 2012, 03:44:43 PM »
Quote from: Skul on September 07, 2012, 03:03:03 PM
Minnesota flip to red?
Nah, the smurfs of Minniecrapolis out-number regular people working for a living.

I think MN, IA & WI are all in play.  Look at where the candidates travel.  To me, that is the best indicator on what states will be competitive.
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