primitives discuss Dem Doomsday

[franksolich]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8988001

Oh my.

unhappycamper  (1000+ posts)        Sat Aug-21-10 06:46 AM
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Original message

DoD Buzz: Dems Face Doom in House 

Washington’s most respected election analyst, Charlie Cook, is now calling the House for the Republicans. And he’s predicting not just a close race, which had been the call of most analysts until now, but is predicting a so-called “wave” election, one where the party in power is swept away. Cook spoke with the Wall Street Journal.

Before GOP tribalists begin crowing and dancing the sacred dance of victory, Cook cautions that he does not think the GOP is likely to win the Senate. And, with all respect to my many friends in the House, the Senate is what really matters when the other party holds the White House. Why? Every Senator has the enormous power to just say no — such as putting holds on nominations or using procedural means to gum up the works or — and control of the Senate would give the Republicans the ability to push through legislation they might not be able to otherwise. Not to mention the symbolic power of a GOP victory in both houses.

Given all that, let’s consider what the Republicans are likely to focus on should they gain the bully pulpit of controlling the House Armed Services and House appropriations defense bodies. top of the list will be protecting defense spending from what some GOP leaders believe is an overeager Robert Gates and a left-leaning Democratic Party eager to strip defense money and spend it on social programs.

The other area likely to receive increased attention is oversight of Afghan strategy. Some senior GOP leaders have worried about the rules of engagement, which they think were foisted on Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the former commander, by the White House. When Gen. David Petraeus issued his new rules of engagement in late July they were, arguably, even tougher in restricting the use of force. If they hear comments from troops that they are confused by the new ROEs or feel overly restricted by them, expect Republicans to hammer away at this.

But it’s early days yet. Most aides are on vacation and most lawmakers are on the hustings or fund raising. Have a look at the Defend America statement House GOP leaders put out earlier this year for some insight on what they will bring to the election discussion on defense issues. Hopefully, GOP views will become sharper the closer we get to the elections.

unhappycamper comment: I'll bet there were woodies all over the place after Colin wrote this......

babylonsister  (1000+ posts)         Sat Aug-21-10 06:54 AM
Response to Original message
 
1. I would so like to see Charlie Cook fail miserably. I would also like to see Americans use the brain cells they were supposedly born with, but have been disappointed too many times.

Yeah, one's been considerably disappointed with the babbling sister primitive.

xchrom  (1000+ posts)         Sat Aug-21-10 07:31 AM
Response to Original message
 
2. We will see - it doesn't help that he's jumped out here now.

He'll get plenty of air time for this 'early prediction'.

mmonk  (1000+ posts)         Sat Aug-21-10 10:10 AM
Response to Reply #2
 
7. Which may energize the Democratic base that has been demoralized.

mikehiggins (1000+ posts)      Sat Aug-21-10 08:05 AM
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3. Clinton II

If the GOPukes do take the reins of the House, not only are we likely to see Boner as Speaker, but you can absolutely expect a myriad of hearings and investigations into every aspect of O's first two years with an almost 100% certainty of impeachment efforts on all fronts.

We have to hammer the Pukes with their lies, evasions and horrendous past at every point from here on in or things will indeed rapidly answer the question, how much worse could things get?

Really, really worse.

As sick as it might make you feel, we actually DO have to rally around the Dems across the board, at least for this election cycle. If we lose in 2010, we are done in 2012.

John Boehner's franksolich's man for 2012.

AlinPA  (1000+ posts)      Sat Aug-21-10 09:39 AM
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Response to Reply #3

5. Correct. If we lose the house in 2010, the corporate money will steamroller us in 2012. That new SC ruling is crippling. If the republicans need a billion dollars to feed house and senate races it will not be a problem for them. That's a drop in the bucket for corporations.

Tesha  (1000+ posts)      Sat Aug-21-10 08:20 AM
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Response to Original message

4. I think you can count on -2 from New Hampshire

Today, our two Congressional Districts supply Carol Shea-Porter in the First CD and Paul Hodes in the Second CD.

But Shea-Porter has only been elected twice and has never won overwhelmingly; it's always close. This year,
it's hard to see her squeaking through again against strengthened, emboldened Republican opposition.

In the 2nd CD, Hodes has won fairly well, but he's decided to seek a promotion to the Senate seat being
vacated by Judd "the Dudd" Gregg. So the 2nd CD is an open seat. Two Democrats are vying for the nomi-
nation: Katrina Swett and Ann McLane Kuster. I think Swett will win the primary but she's already run for
the seat and lost in the general election. And in 1994, it was her husband Dick Swett (sic!) that was evicted from the seat in the great Republican blow-out of 1994, partially over his support for the ban on assault weapons, so if she's the nominee, you can bet the Republicans will be out campaigning with guns almost-literally blazing. And pro-gun Democrats will be helping to shoot her down.

McLane Kuster is (IMNSHO) the much better candidate. She's much stronger on basic Democratic issues such
as women's rights, gay rights, and access to reproductive services. And her mom was a famous long-term
NH moderate Republican State Senate office-holder, so she has some built-in *GOOD* name recognition and
credibility with the saner parts of the the NH Republican contingent (and we still have some sane Republicans here). But she's weak in the primary whereas I believe Swett is "the anointed one" chosen by our DLC-to-the-core party elites.

Meanwhile, the Republicans are likely to nominate Charlie Bass as their candidate and he's the one who evicted Dick Swett in 1994 and went on to sit quite a few terms in the House. So expect him to trounce Katrina Swett in 2010.

Net result? NH delivers a -2 for the House Democrats.

P.S.: Oh, and Hodes probably loses too, depending on whether the Republicans nominate Kelly Ayott (the machine politician, never met an abortion she liked, a sure winner), Ovid LaMontagne (representing God, has lost statewide races in the past but could win this one), Bill Binnie (motto "He's certifiable!"), or What's-his-name from
Hollis (too much of an unknown, probably won't even "show" in the Primary and would almost-certainly lose the General). But at least that only means "0" for the Senate since the open seat is being vacated by a Republican.

SoxFan  (1000+ posts)      Sat Aug-21-10 10:23 AM
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Response to Reply #4

8. Kuster is a terrible choice

Kuster has the support of pseudo-Democratic governor John Lynch, so I would hardly call her the belleagured outsider.

She spent most of her life as a Republican, only changing her registration when the tide began to turn.

She has made numerous contributions to Republican state senators.

She is a lobbyist for big pharma and the financial industry.

She made an elitist mess out of Women For Obama by freezing out anyone who didn't have a six figure income and an elite degree.

Katrina Swett was busting her ass for Democratic candidates and causes back when Annie was still a Republican. I'll stick with the real Democrat, not the fashionable pet rock, thank you.

The rest of the campfire's mostly the two primitives from New Hampshire discussing New Hampshire.

[JohnnyReb]

UH-OH! Looks like the democrat big tent is going to blown away in the big November wind.

[Ballygrl]

Frank, just a curiosity question, if the Republicans gain control of the House, what happens to Nancy Pelosi? will she just resign her seat? will Democrats point fingers at her where she has no choice but resign? or would she try to become Minority Leader? or just go back to being a plain old Congresswoman?

[JohnnyReb]

Frank, just a curiosity question, if the Republicans gain control of the House, what happens to Nancy Pelosi? will she just resign her seat? will Democrats point fingers at her where she has no choice but resign? or would she try to become Minority Leader? or just go back to being a plain old Congresswoman?

One thing is for certain....she'll remain a plain old bitch for sure.

[BlueStateSaint]

Frank, just a curiosity question, if the Republicans gain control of the House, what happens to Nancy Pelosi? will she just resign her seat? will Democrats point fingers at her where she has no choice but resign? or would she try to become Minority Leader? or just go back to being a plain old Congresswoman?

She becomes a back-bencher.  Most of the surviving Dems will blame her for their catastrophic losses, so she must pay the price.

[Ballygrl]

She becomes a back-bencher.  Most of the surviving Dems will blame her for their catastrophic losses, so she must pay the price.

That would be like going from the Presidential Suite to a 1 room shack, I can't imagine her doing that.

[Mr Mannn]

She becomes a back-bencher.  Most of the surviving Dems will blame her for their catastrophic losses, so she must pay the price.

Yep, the rats are never kind to failed leaders.

[JohnnyReb]

She becomes a back-bencherbiter.  Most of the surviving Dems will blame her for their catastrophic losses, so she must pay the price.

[BlueStateSaint]

That would be like going from the Presidential Suite to a 1 room shack, I can't imagine her doing that.

She won't have a choice.  Steny Hoyer will see to that.

[formerlurker]

Frank, just a curiosity question, if the Republicans gain control of the House, what happens to Nancy Pelosi? will she just resign her seat? will Democrats point fingers at her where she has no choice but resign? or would she try to become Minority Leader? or just go back to being a plain old Congresswoman?

Doubtful they will elect her as minority leader, she has pissed off so many in her party that her maintaining majority leader if they kept the house would not be an easy win.

[zeitgeist]

De plane boss De plane.  She loses de plane.   Oh the hugh manatees!!  How will she fly back to the coast, coach or borrow Hillary's broom?  (Don't shed too many tears, she's got enough dough to afford first class or fractional jet if not her own.)

[NHSparky]

Frank, just a curiosity question, if the Republicans gain control of the House, what happens to Nancy Pelosi? will she just resign her seat? will Democrats point fingers at her where she has no choice but resign? or would she try to become Minority Leader? or just go back to being a plain old Congresswoman?

More than likely she'll revert back to being Minority Whip, if she isn't replaced in that position by her party.

And FWIW, unless the voters of this state have gone completely batshit crazy, BOTH of NH's seats are going back to the GOP.  I don't think Lynch can lose, and Hodes has been running a dirty campaign against Ayotte (the presumptive nominee so far.)  No way in hell I vote for "Big Bucks" Binnie in the primary.

[JohnnyReb]

De plane boss De plane.  She looses de plane.   Oh the hugh manatees!!  How will she fly back to the coast, coach or borrow Hillary's broom?  (Don't shed too many tears, she's got enough dough to afford first class or fractional jet if not her own.)

Oh I had forgotten about that....may I do my happy dance now or should I save it for next January?

Right now I'm living on a tight budget but I'd just about spring for a ticket to California if the airline would guarantee me a seat next to her.....I might have to thumb my way back home but it would be worth it....hell, I might even spring for a laptop so I could play Ronald Reagan and Barry Goldwater Cd's or something.

[NHSparky]

De plane boss De plane.  She loses de plane.   Oh the hugh manatees!!  How will she fly back to the coast, coach or borrow Hillary's broom?  (Don't shed too many tears, she's got enough dough to afford first class or fractional jet if not her own.)

I'm surprised there's a primitive actually stating that they think both Congressional seats revert back to the R column and not getting the granite pizza for it.

Most of the punditry has both seats anywhere from "toss-up" to "leans R", which is to say it's by no means a sure thing they're going to flip, but given the fact that Dick Swett's wife (Tom Lantos' daughter, if anyone is interested) is running, and Che-Porter can't seem to be found anywhere here during the August break when she SHOULD be holding townhalls, meeting the folks, little shit like that, tells me she may already be brushing up her resume and joining the rest of the folks in the unemployment line come November.

[zeitgeist]

Oh I had forgotten about that....may I do my happy dance now or should I save it for next January?

Right now I'm living on a tight budget but I'd just about spring for a ticket to California if the airline would guarantee me a seat next to her.....I might have to thumb my way back home but it would be worth it....hell, I might even spring for a laptop so I could play Ronald Reagan and Barry Goldwater Cd's or something.

I got a great Zell Miller DVD I might let ya have.   

[JohnnyReb]

I got a great Zell Miller DVD I might let ya have.   

 

[zeitgeist]

More than likely she'll revert back to being Minority Whip, if she isn't replaced in that position by her party.

And FWIW, unless the voters of this state have gone completely batshit crazy, BOTH of NH's seats are going back to the GOP.  I don't think Lynch can lose, and Hodes has been running a dirty campaign against Ayotte (the presumptive nominee so far.)  No way in hell I vote for "Big Bucks" Binnie in the primary.

Had a great time with a Hodes push pollster a few days back.  I seem to be on a pollster roll this year for some reason that was my third time being poll this year.

(Kept telling the pollster I had no idea who Hodes was, they were only polling Hodes and negative Ayotte).  Actually saw a Hodes sign a few days later.  Binnie has spent a lot of dough and has a couple hard hitting ads banging Kelly on guns an immigration.

ETA:  I expect to see Binnie / Manoney write-ins here in P_town.  There is no way there are as many R's as there are Binnie / Mahoney signs and they aren't all be independents either.

[NHSparky]

Sorry, can't STAND Binnie.  He's a GOP version of Obama, "Hopey changey!  Hopey changey!" with little to nothing of substance in his ads to back it up.  Trust me, if he had spent what the others have spent, he'd be down in single digits.  His poll numbers are name recognition, nothing more.

[zeitgeist]

Sorry, can't STAND Binnie.  He's a GOP version of Obama, "Hopey changey!  Hopey changey!" with little to nothing of substance in his ads to back it up.  Trust me, if he had spent what the others have spent, he'd be down in single digits.  His poll numbers are name recognition, nothing more.

Um yeah, 'cause his signs are everywhere, it appears he is spendng at ton of dough.  As I said, I expect dems to write in Binnie in the primary if they even turn out in CD1.  Independents can grab an R ballot but registered D's are stuck with unopposed Che and Hodes.  How many will write in Binnie?? Hard to tell but I expect a few.

That said, Katrina was quite a looker before Dick Swett turned her into a baby machine.     

[NHSparky]

Um yeah, 'cause his signs are everywhere, it appears he is spendng at ton of dough.  As I said, I expect dems to write in Binnie in the primary if they even turn out in CD1.  Independents can grab an R ballot but registered D's are stuck with unopposed Che and Hodes.  How many will write in Binnie?? Hard to tell but I expect a few.

That said, Katrina was quite a looker before Dick Swett turned her into a baby machine.     

I look at it this way--the people with the biggest Binnie signage on Route 125 (most notably northbound in Epping) are also the same mouth-breathers that had the major Ron Paul signage out a couple years back.

'Nuff said.

[Ballygrl]

More than likely she'll revert back to being Minority Whip, if she isn't replaced in that position by her party.

And FWIW, unless the voters of this state have gone completely batshit crazy, BOTH of NH's seats are going back to the GOP.  I don't think Lynch can lose, and Hodes has been running a dirty campaign against Ayotte (the presumptive nominee so far.)  No way in hell I vote for "Big Bucks" Binnie in the primary.

I just find it hard to believe she'll accept a position beneath what she has now.

BTW, what are the views of New Hampshire voters as far as Obama goes?

[NHSparky]

I just find it hard to believe she'll accept a position beneath what she has now.

BTW, what are the views of New Hampshire voters as far as Obama goes?

Oh, there's still plenty of people in Dover, Portsmouth, Durham (home of UNH) that still think his shit doesn't stink...but they're becoming far less numerous and far less vocal than they were a year ago.

One of my co-workers was proud to admit he voted for Obama--a year and a half ago.  Nowadays, not so much.  Even took the Obama sticker off his car, although his (very) faded anti-W sticker is still there.

Yeah, I'm seeing fewer and fewer Hodes/Che-Porter/Obama stickers, and more of the 1-20-13 and GWB "Miss Me Yet?" ones.

[zeitgeist]

Oh, there's still plenty of people in Dover, Portsmouth, Durham (home of UNH) that still think his shit doesn't stink...but they're becoming far less numerous and far less vocal than they were a year ago.

One of my co-workers was proud to admit he voted for Obama--a year and a half ago.  Nowadays, not so much.  Even took the Obama sticker off his car, although his (very) faded anti-W sticker is still there.

Yeah, I'm seeing fewer and fewer Hodes/Che-Porter/Obama stickers, and more of the 1-20-13 and GWB "Miss Me Yet?" ones.

Was picking up a pizza a couple nights ago when I spied one of the loonies festoonied death traps parked beside me. They are still out there but I didn't have my camera. Yesterday found another twenty somethin Birkenstock Maniac buying cheap gas. The temptation to jerk his chain was great, you know, Thanks for supporting better roads for NH but they are so comatose and indoctrinated I doubt he would have got it.   I swear half of DU could live in the tri city area or just over the rusting bridges.  I attribute most of this to the last twenty years of Pubic Edukation and the heap of white guilt placed ON the younger generation. They really believe the $hit they were fed by the braless leftist hippie followers of Zinn et al.  SAD.  

btw:
If Binnie ran as a dem I think he would win walking away, ditto Mahoney. (both are relatively rich and good looking)

9 of 11 dem state senators are women.  Now do you understand why the NH budget is the way it is??

[JohnnyReb]

9 of 11 dem state senators are women.  Now do you understand why the NH budget is the way it is??

...and 8 out of the 9 want to fund every sob story they hear.

[zeitgeist]

...and 8 out of the 9 want to fund every sob story they hear.

Bingo and just look at the voter as an endless source of overdraft protection.