NY Post: New York is in Play

[Zeus]

even though NY has elected republicans to statewide office in the relatively recent past, I don't believe that the they will carry NY. but maybe The BarackStar! will have to spend time, effort, and a chunk of that $66 million bucks he made this month trying to hang on to it.

Exactly.  We probably won't carry NY, but if Obama has to spend money and time to defend it, that's money and time not being spent in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida.  The final two, IMHO, are sure McCain wins, but a victory in either one of the first two seals the election.

Thats the thing though.The Obama campaign is being forced to defend what they thought were safe states and still fight in the so called toss up states. The MCain states are solid enough where they can concentrate on picking up one or more of the toss up states. In other words the Barackstar is being forced to play defense. McCain is used to taking hits and can continue to march the barackstar is a fair weather candidate not used to having to defend his positions.

[Chris_]

I am a firm believer that the "Bradley Factor" will play a huge role in this election...........combine this with typical pollsters consistantly oversampling Dems in the internals, even when they are polling historically conservative states, the results may be more skewed than we think.....

doc

[Wretched Excess]

I am a firm believer that the "Bradley Factor" will play a huge role in this election...........combine this with typical pollsters consistantly oversampling Dems in the internals, even when they are polling historically conservative states, the results may be more skewed than we think.....

doc

well, the last time we were in this situation, the bradely effect existed.  but it's impossible to put a number on it this year.  I think it probably exists, too.  we saw it in the dem primaries, but to what extent it exists during a general election is anyone's guess.

[miskie]

well, the last time we were in this situation, the bradely effect existed.  but it's impossible to put a number on it this year.  I think it probably exists, too.  we saw it in the dem primaries, but to what extent it exists during a general election is anyone's guess.

I think now that Palin is in the race, the Bradley Factor is probably going to be a bit smaller. I think some who have been afraid to come off as racist in polling will see Palin as a good alternative and may be a bit more truthful.

But it did exist in the Dem Primaries for certain, as can be seen in several states that went for Hillary against the polls.

[Wretched Excess]

well, the last time we were in this situation, the bradely effect existed.  but it's impossible to put a number on it this year.  I think it probably exists, too.  we saw it in the dem primaries, but to what extent it exists during a general election is anyone's guess.

I think now that Palin is in the race, the Bradley Factor is probably going to be a bit smaller. I think some who have been afraid to come off as racist in polling will see Palin as a good alternative and may be a bit more truthful.

But it did exist in the Dem Primaries for certain, as can be seen in several states that went for Hillary against the polls.

yeah, exactly.  it was as much as 5 points in the primaries, and hiillary is a chick.  one would think that that escape hatch would have existed
then as now.

but who knows.  we won't find out until election night.

[DumbAss Tanker]

Missouri voters to whom I've talked really, really like the Palin pick, that probably had more impact than any other single factor in moving it into the solidly-Red column.

As far as NY goes, the Conservative opposition to the Dems is divided between the GOP and the Conservative Party, which is a bit to the right of the painfully-Centrist NY GOP on most Conservative issue, consequently the GOP has some trouble getting an effective turnout for State-wide elections.  The Dems do obvioulsy dominate the city machines, especially NYC, but the State's at-large electorate is not as hopelessly-Dem as most people think.   

[bijou]

Teh Rove has spoken

[Tess Anderson]

LOL, I'm just relieved that someone in this thread finally said "Missouri" - to me, it's always been the quintessential swing state, but haven't heard that much about it lately. Looks firmly in the Juan camp according to Rove. "Nuff said.

There's also a Minnesota poll that has the race there is a tie - Rove has BHO up by 5 there, and there is some new poll from Virginia that has McCain by four, I think. This is the NY poll referenced by the OP's article:

Loudonville, NY. Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today. Obama’s five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent.

On a series of six questions concerning current issues in the campaign – economy, Iraq, terrorism, health care, America’s position in the world, and education – likely voters believe Obama will do a better job on four. Conversely, out of six attributes voters often look at in choosing a candidate – compassion, patriotism, experience, intelligence, integrity, and leadership – New York’s electorate gives the edge to McCain on four.

I do think this is a chick thing, especially in New York - I have a couple of friends that are charter members of PUMA who are going to vote for McCain now that Palin's on the ticket. I asked them if it bothered them that she was pro-life, they said no, that they were "tired of the sexist MSM and DNC holding the RvW sword over American women's heads". I'll take it.

[Hawkgirl]

New York  City has elected a republican mayor and New York state has elected republican Governors...so why not??