NY Post: New York is in Play

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

BOOSTED by the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, Republican John McCain has experienced a surge of support among women in heavily Democratic New York state - where he has closed the gap with Barack Obama, new private polls show.

The internal Republican and Democratic polls, details of which were provided to The Post, have stunned members of both parties - and produced deep worries among Democrats. …

The private polls have consistently shown the Obama-Biden ticket still leading but with less than 50 percent of the vote in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 2.3 million voters.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/09152008/news/columnists/ladies_man_mac_is_a_player_in_ny_129211.htm

[Wretched Excess]

even though NY has elected republicans to statewide office in the relatively recent past, I don't believe that the they will carry NY. but maybe The BarackStar! will have to spend time, effort, and a chunk of that $66 million bucks he made this month trying to hang on to it.

[Odin's Hand]

I'm sure the Spitzer/prostitution deal has played a small part in this reversal of fortunes also.

[Wretched Excess]

I'm sure the Spitzer/prostitution deal has played a small part in this reversal of fortunes also.

exacerbated by the fact that his replacement, Gov. David Paterson, couldn't keep it in the pants, either.

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

even though NY has elected republicans to statewide office in the relatively recent past, I don't believe that the they will carry NY. but maybe The BarackStar! will have to spend time, effort, and a chunk of that $66 million bucks he made this month trying to hang on to it.

I'm curious how much $$$ McCain spent to flip it.

Being NY I'm sure they only made a token play for it but Palin brought the rest. So if you get for free what you never expected to need to win and force the other guy to spend hard to desperately keep what he needs is very telling.

[miskie]

Ruh-Roh Obie! We need to spend money in a safe state!

I don't think McCain will take New York in the end, but I do agree with the article - If its close in New York, the Dems lose.

[Wretched Excess]

even though NY has elected republicans to statewide office in the relatively recent past, I don't believe that the they will carry NY. but maybe The BarackStar! will have to spend time, effort, and a chunk of that $66 million bucks he made this month trying to hang on to it.

I'm curious how much $$$ McCain spent to flip it.

Being NY I'm sure they only made a token play for it but Palin brought the rest. So if you get for free what you never expected to need to win and force the other guy to spend hard to desperately keep what he needs is very telling.

yep.  and elsewhere, minnesota is tied up.  kerry carried the state by around 3 points in 2004, and gore by about the same margin
in 2000.  the The BarackStar!'s strategy assumes that he will carry all of the kerry states.  one or to flips, and it would throw a
major money wrench into the gears.

Minnesota Poll: McCain, Obama even in state

MINNEAPOLIS - Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are tied in Minnesota, according to a Star Tribune Minnesota Poll published Sunday.

The poll finds each candidate is supported by 45 percent of likely voters in the state. That’s a dramatic improvement for McCain from a Star Tribune poll in May that found him trailing Obama in Minnesota by 13 points.

The poll found McCain made strong gains across since then, picking up considerable support among men and to a lesser extent among women. He boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of househould income and education.

The telephone poll of 1,106 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 10-12 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. That’s a week after McCain accepted his party’s nomination at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, during which many national polls have shown he’s enjoyed a healthy convention "bounce" in support.

Despite perceptions that McCain has been lifted nationally with his choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as a running mate, the Minnesota Poll found it had little influence on the choice of Minnesota voters. While 30 percent said Palin made them more likely to vote for the Republican ticket, 26 percent said it made them less likely to do so. For the rest, it didn’t make much difference.

More

[miskie]

I'm curious how much $$$ McCain spent to flip it.

Being NY I'm sure they only made a token play for it but Palin brought the rest. So if you get for free what you never expected to need to win and force the other guy to spend hard to desperately keep what he needs is very telling.

well, reading the article, it suggests that McCain spent -0- in New York so far - bringing NY close with no cash invested is damn good value for the money.

[Wretched Excess]

I'm curious how much $$$ McCain spent to flip it.

Being NY I'm sure they only made a token play for it but Palin brought the rest. So if you get for free what you never expected to need to win and force the other guy to spend hard to desperately keep what he needs is very telling.

well, reading the article, it suggests that McCain spent -0- in New York so far - bringing NY close with no cash invested is damn good value for the money.

it's hard to argue with "free"

[bijou]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/today%27s%20polls

[BEG]

even though NY has elected republicans to statewide office in the relatively recent past, I don't believe that the they will carry NY. but maybe The BarackStar! will have to spend time, effort, and a chunk of that $66 million bucks he made this month trying to hang on to it.

Is anyone else bothered by the amount of money Obama claims to have earned over the past 18 months that he has been campaigning?  As WE said, $66 million in August alone.  Where does all this money come from?  Does anyone have the total amount of money Obama has raised?  It seems a tad obscene to me, it doesn't feel right.  It just feels wrong.

[Odin's Hand]

even though NY has elected republicans to statewide office in the relatively recent past, I don't believe that the they will carry NY. but maybe The BarackStar! will have to spend time, effort, and a chunk of that $66 million bucks he made this month trying to hang on to it.

Is anyone else bothered by the amount of money Obama claims to have earned over the past 18 months that he has been campaigning?  As WE said, $66 million in August alone.  Where does all this money come from?  Does anyone have the total amount of money Obama has raised?  It seems a tad obscene to me, it doesn't feel right.  It just feels wrong.

Mr. Soros has deep pockets, a desire to see a very socialist U.S. and not much longer to live.

[Wretched Excess]

even though NY has elected republicans to statewide office in the relatively recent past, I don't believe that the they will carry NY. but maybe The BarackStar! will have to spend time, effort, and a chunk of that $66 million bucks he made this month trying to hang on to it.

Is anyone else bothered by the amount of money Obama claims to have earned over the past 18 months that he has been campaigning?  As WE said, $66 million in August alone.  Where does all this money come from?  Does anyone have the total amount of money Obama has raised?  It seems a tad obscene to me, it doesn't feel right.  It just feels wrong.

they were projecting that they would raise $100 per month in august, september and october, and I have read this morning that they are about halfway there.  and they claim that the vast majority of the donations come from small donors (although they play games with the wording, and say the "median donor is $XX", rather than the "average donation is $XX".  these are very different things), who are, for the most part, anonymous.

[miskie]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/today%27s%20polls

HEH - When fivethirtyeight finds for McCain, the Dems have a problem (The owners of the site try to be nonpartisan in their analysis - which is commendable - The site owners both admit they are Obama backers.) - They have a unique methodology by weighing different polls on their past accuracy and give little notice to Gallup and other polling companies the Dems hate. (Gallup gave MCCain that massive 10 point bounce that nobody else found)

anyway - between fivethirtyeight and electoral-vote.com both giving McCain-Palin the win (E-V.com is run by a US expat/liberal IIRC) Obama and Biden better get their act together, or get lots of Vaseline.

[Wretched Excess]

this thread seems like as good a place as anywhere else to post various polls.  mccain is up 4 in ohio.  I think
only Quinnipiac has obama up in ohio, and that is +5.  rassmussen has mccain up 9.

Suffolk poll: McCain leads in Ohio

Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin’s self-professed soccer-mom status appears to be paying off for the GOP ticket in Ohio, which leads its Democrat opponents by four percentage points in the state, according to a new poll.

Suffolk University reported Monday that a poll of 600 likely voters in the state last week found Republican presidential hopeful John McCain and Palin have 46 percent support among Ohioans in their bid for the White House. The Democrat’s ticket, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, have 42 percent of the state’s vote, the Boston-based school said.

The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

When asked which of the four presidential and vice presidential nominees is most like them, nearly a third named Palin, the governor of Alaska. Obama trailed with 22 percent, followed by McCain at 21 percent and Biden at 13 percent.

Of those surveyed, 49 percent said they trust McCain more, versus 41 percent for Obama. McCain also trumped Obama when voters were asked who is more likely to fulfill a pledge to lower taxes. Forty-one percent of surveyed voters said McCain, a senator from Arizona, is more likely to live up to his word, versus 31 percent for Obama, the Illinois senator.

“McCain is benefiting from Palin identification and empathy as well as a greater sense of Buckeye voter trust,” David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, said in a release. “However, should the trust firewall in Ohio break down, it could signal the beginning of an electoral blue domino effect there.”

More

[Chris_]

even though NY has elected republicans to statewide office in the relatively recent past, I don't believe that the they will carry NY. but maybe The BarackStar! will have to spend time, effort, and a chunk of that $66 million bucks he made this month trying to hang on to it.

I'm curious how much $$$ McCain spent to flip it.

Being NY I'm sure they only made a token play for it but Palin brought the rest. So if you get for free what you never expected to need to win and force the other guy to spend hard to desperately keep what he needs is very telling.

yep.  and elsewhere, minnesota is tied up.  kerry carried the state by around 3 points in 2004, and gore by about the same margin
in 2000.  the The BarackStar!'s strategy assumes that he will carry all of the kerry states.  one or to flips, and it would throw a
major money wrench into the gears.

Minnesota Poll: McCain, Obama even in state

MINNEAPOLIS - Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are tied in Minnesota, according to a Star Tribune Minnesota Poll published Sunday.

The poll finds each candidate is supported by 45 percent of likely voters in the state. That’s a dramatic improvement for McCain from a Star Tribune poll in May that found him trailing Obama in Minnesota by 13 points.

The poll found McCain made strong gains across since then, picking up considerable support among men and to a lesser extent among women. He boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of househould income and education.

The telephone poll of 1,106 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 10-12 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. That’s a week after McCain accepted his party’s nomination at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, during which many national polls have shown he’s enjoyed a healthy convention "bounce" in support.

Despite perceptions that McCain has been lifted nationally with his choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as a running mate, the Minnesota Poll found it had little influence on the choice of Minnesota voters. While 30 percent said Palin made them more likely to vote for the Republican ticket, 26 percent said it made them less likely to do so. For the rest, it didn’t make much difference.

More

And if that were not bad enough for the messiah.......the lead on the radio news this morning was that the Obama campaign is quietly cancelling ad buys, and relocating workers out of Missouri..........

doc

[Wretched Excess]

even though NY has elected republicans to statewide office in the relatively recent past, I don't believe that the they will carry NY. but maybe The BarackStar! will have to spend time, effort, and a chunk of that $66 million bucks he made this month trying to hang on to it.

I'm curious how much $$$ McCain spent to flip it.

Being NY I'm sure they only made a token play for it but Palin brought the rest. So if you get for free what you never expected to need to win and force the other guy to spend hard to desperately keep what he needs is very telling.

yep.  and elsewhere, minnesota is tied up.  kerry carried the state by around 3 points in 2004, and gore by about the same margin
in 2000.  the The BarackStar!'s strategy assumes that he will carry all of the kerry states.  one or to flips, and it would throw a
major money wrench into the gears.

Minnesota Poll: McCain, Obama even in state

MINNEAPOLIS - Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are tied in Minnesota, according to a Star Tribune Minnesota Poll published Sunday.

The poll finds each candidate is supported by 45 percent of likely voters in the state. That’s a dramatic improvement for McCain from a Star Tribune poll in May that found him trailing Obama in Minnesota by 13 points.

The poll found McCain made strong gains across since then, picking up considerable support among men and to a lesser extent among women. He boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of househould income and education.

The telephone poll of 1,106 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 10-12 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. That’s a week after McCain accepted his party’s nomination at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, during which many national polls have shown he’s enjoyed a healthy convention "bounce" in support.

Despite perceptions that McCain has been lifted nationally with his choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as a running mate, the Minnesota Poll found it had little influence on the choice of Minnesota voters. While 30 percent said Palin made them more likely to vote for the Republican ticket, 26 percent said it made them less likely to do so. For the rest, it didn’t make much difference.

More

And if that were not bad enough for the messiah.......the lead on the radio news this morning was that the Obama campaign is quietly cancelling ad buys, and relocating workers out of Missouri..........

doc

are you serious?  I would have thought that missouri was "do or die" for The BarackStar!

[Chris_]

are you serious?  I would have thought that missouri was "do or die" for The BarackStar!

Aparently it's just "die".   

[Zeus]

are you serious?  I would have thought that missouri was "do or die" for The BarackStar!

Aparently it's just "die".   

The BarackStar campaign has been righteously rattled. They may be switching to a Electoral college strategy. Proping up the "safe states' and more or less abandoning the Middle America low EC count states.

[Wretched Excess]

are you serious?  I would have thought that missouri was "do or die" for The BarackStar!

Aparently it's just "die".   

The BarackStar campaign has been righteously rattled. They may be switching to a Electoral college strategy. Proping up the "safe states' and more or less abandoning the Middle America low EC count states.

abandon the 50 state strategy, in other words?  give up on taking a southern state (the thought that he could win georgia was just retarded, anyway), and concentrate on flippping OH, NM, CO, VA, and/or FL.  the $100 million bucks he should be able to raise between now and election day would pretty well saturate the media markets in those states .. . . .

[WinOne4TheGipper]

even though NY has elected republicans to statewide office in the relatively recent past, I don't believe that the they will carry NY. but maybe The BarackStar! will have to spend time, effort, and a chunk of that $66 million bucks he made this month trying to hang on to it.

Exactly.  We probably won't carry NY, but if Obama has to spend money and time to defend it, that's money and time not being spent in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida.  The final two, IMHO, are sure McCain wins, but a victory in either one of the first two seals the election.

[Doc]

are you serious?  I would have thought that missouri was "do or die" for The BarackStar!

Aparently it's just "die".   

The BarackStar campaign has been righteously rattled. They may be switching to a Electoral college strategy. Proping up the "safe states' and more or less abandoning the Middle America low EC count states.

abandon the 50 state strategy, in other words?  give up on taking a southern state (the thought that he could win georgia was just retarded, anyway), and concentrate on flippping OH, NM, CO, VA, and/or FL.  the $100 million bucks he should be able to raise between now and election day would pretty well saturate the media markets in those states .. . . .

I suspect that you are correct.....according to Fox News this morning, weekend polls are showing McCain/Palin are now AHEAD (albiet within the margin of error)  in MI, OH, PA, VA and CO..........

If these numbers are correct, it is curtains for the "magic negro", his support is collapsing by the day.....no way in hell can the Dems win without carrying at least two of MI, PA, or OH......

doc

[Wretched Excess]

are you serious?  I would have thought that missouri was "do or die" for The BarackStar!

Aparently it's just "die".   

The BarackStar campaign has been righteously rattled. They may be switching to a Electoral college strategy. Proping up the "safe states' and more or less abandoning the Middle America low EC count states.

abandon the 50 state strategy, in other words?  give up on taking a southern state (the thought that he could win georgia was just retarded, anyway), and concentrate on flippping OH, NM, CO, VA, and/or FL.  the $100 million bucks he should be able to raise between now and election day would pretty well saturate the media markets in those states .. . . .

I suspect that you are correct.....according to Fox News this morning, weekend polls are showing McCain/Palin are now AHEAD (albiet within the margin of error(  in MI, OH, PA, and CO..........

If these numbers are correct, it is curtains for the "magic negro", his support is collapsing by the day.....no way in hell can the Dems win without carrying at least two of MI, PA, or OH......

doc

I suspect that mccain/palin is still riding something of a bubble at the moment.  or at least the pessimist in me thinks so.  i will feel better once we clear the VP debate and the first presidential debate.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

are you serious?  I would have thought that missouri was "do or die" for The BarackStar!

Aparently it's just "die".   

The BarackStar campaign has been righteously rattled. They may be switching to a Electoral college strategy. Proping up the "safe states' and more or less abandoning the Middle America low EC count states.

abandon the 50 state strategy, in other words?  give up on taking a southern state (the thought that he could win georgia was just retarded, anyway), and concentrate on flippping OH, NM, CO, VA, and/or FL.  the $100 million bucks he should be able to raise between now and election day would pretty well saturate the media markets in those states .. . . .

I suspect that you are correct.....according to Fox News this morning, weekend polls are showing McCain/Palin are now AHEAD (albiet within the margin of error(  in MI, OH, PA, and CO..........

If these numbers are correct, it is curtains for the "magic negro", his support is collapsing by the day.....no way in hell can the Dems win without carrying at least two of MI, PA, or OH......

doc

You also have to consider the polling source.  Pennsylvania is tightening, but the poll that shows McCain up there was put out by Zogby Interactive, which does not have a strong record for accuracy.

[Chris_]

are you serious?  I would have thought that missouri was "do or die" for The BarackStar!

Aparently it's just "die".   

The BarackStar campaign has been righteously rattled. They may be switching to a Electoral college strategy. Proping up the "safe states' and more or less abandoning the Middle America low EC count states.

abandon the 50 state strategy, in other words?  give up on taking a southern state (the thought that he could win georgia was just retarded, anyway), and concentrate on flippping OH, NM, CO, VA, and/or FL.  the $100 million bucks he should be able to raise between now and election day would pretty well saturate the media markets in those states .. . . .

I suspect that you are correct.....according to Fox News this morning, weekend polls are showing McCain/Palin are now AHEAD (albiet within the margin of error(  in MI, OH, PA, and CO..........

If these numbers are correct, it is curtains for the "magic negro", his support is collapsing by the day.....no way in hell can the Dems win without carrying at least two of MI, PA, or OH......

doc

Don't forget, the Democrat Propaganda Ministry tends to cherry pick their polls to over-favor the Democrat by about 5-10 points over their actual November draw.  If they're broadcasting those polls, because the public might notice if they simply stopped broadcasting polls at all, Teh Obamessiah may well be in for a shellacking in those states, when the only poll that counts gets taken.