Bush and or Trump will be one of the two standing at the end of the primary season because they have big bucks. Just wait and see.
What many people fail to realize is that Trump is a negotiator. I don't think he will run as a 3rd party candidate unless the polls show that he leads Repubs. If the polls show otherwise, he will support the Repub candidate for a price....probably for financial gain. Hillary with her tax the rich promise would not be advantageous for him. .
Why the hell would he go third party if he's at the top of the polls? That would mean he's also winning primaries. What's he gonna say, "Yaayyy! I won Iowa and Ohio...think I'll just start the Trump party!" It would be a highly stupid move on his part and the man isn't stupid. However, his criteria ISN'T his poll numbers, it's whether the party's "treating him right". He's the only one who can determine what that means. I'm guessing it's if his ego gets bruised.
I think when his poll numbers start to fall, he'll get bored. No one sustains these kinds of numbers, just ask Scott Walker and Hillary Clinton (she was the odds on money favorite in 2008). People heard very little of Cruz during the debates (he went 40 minutes without being asked a question), yet his poll numbers nearly doubled. Carson, Rubio & Walker also saw gains. Carly wasn't even at the big kids table and hers went way up.
Were you around during the Reagan revolution? The big money candidates were left in the dust. The mood of the country right now is about 10 times worse than it was then. There's almost nothing to be happy about. The majority of our citizens think the country is going in the wrong direction. As we're a self correcting country, we'll probably be inclined to vote for someone with more conservative credentials. This will be a highly unconventional campaign season. Primary voters still have a bad taste in their mouths from the McCain and Romney campaigns which is another reason I don't think money will have the impact it normally does.
While Trump is tapping into the country's anger, his money may be a drawback in the long run. He's the richest person to ever run for president and like it or not, he IS part of the establishment and he freely admits to using his money to buy influence. The smart money said Bush, like every RINO before him, would shoot to the top but that hasn't been the case. He has big money donors and PACs full of millions but it's not buying his campaign any momentum. Rubio and Cruz have smaller war chests, their average donation is $50 and $80, respectively, but they obviously are appealing to regular people who don't have tons of money to donate. Money doesn't vote. People do.
Also, the real campaign season hasn't even started yet. Wait until the end of August when people start paying more attention. There's a good portion of the base that hasn't gotten engaged in the primaries at this point. Both Trump and Bush have the advantage of name recognition and that automatically gives them high poll numbers but as the season goes on that advantage will dissipate.
Right now the situation's very fluid and it's hard to say what the final outcome will be. Information may come out about one or more of the candidates that causes them to drop out. The ones that have absolutely no chance will be gone soon and their support will be dispersed among the other candidates. One of the governors could have a crisis in their states that keeps them from the campaign trail and causes them to lose their momentum. The Donald could choke to death on his comb over.
I do think this will be an unconventional election but it's impossible for anyone to predict the outcome right now, even by omniscient Trump supporters. Heck, Hillary may not even be the nominee. She's so plagued with scandal right now that if Biden gets in, I don't see her winning.
Cindie