The Conservative Cave
Current Events => The DUmpster => Topic started by: franksolich on August 23, 2012, 05:29:41 PM
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http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021179863
Oh my.
Panasonic (487 posts)
CU forecasters predict a Romney presidency
http://www.9news.com/news/article/284598/339/CU-forecasters-predict-a-Romney-presidency
DENVER (AP) - Two University of Colorado professors have devised a model to predict who will win the presidential election under current economic circumstances.
The victor, they say, will be Republican Mitt Romney.
The model uses economic indicators from all 50 states to predict the race's outcome. The forecast calls for Romney to win 320 electoral votes out of 538.
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Cracksmokers - all of them.
The forecasters keep forgetting the key factors - Republican obstructionism. All Republican ideologies should be completely rejected.
It's actually favoring Obama - all swing states will pick him, and reject Rmoney and Rayn outright.
LondonReign2 (1,301 posts)
1. Sure
If this election was based on nothing but economic factors, then sure, they might be correct. Fortunately there is a lot more than goes into it.
Like, you know, who actually CAUSED the current set of economic factors.
Atman (24,433 posts)
2. They must have factored in states with electronic voting machines.
That is the only way I can see this Neanderthal getting elected.
russspeakeasy (4,547 posts)
4. Watch it Atman. I know some Neanderthal's and they are pretty pissed at you right now.
Hmmm. I wonder who that might be.
We over here at conservativecave are laughing at Pedro Picasso.
It's hard to be pissed at somebody one's laughing at.
southernyankeebelle (7,053 posts)
3. With voter suppression is the only way I see him winning. I just can't believe people will vote Mittens in to repeat the Bush administration.
ProfessorGAC (23,687 posts)
5. I Bet Dollars To Donuts This Model Wouldn't Pass A Peer Review
It sounds like they fashioned a model to fit the results from past elections and then claim they can extrapolate forward. Rule of thumb in statistics: One can always safely interpolate, but should always be wary of extrapolation.
The other piece they left out, glaringly, is the campaigning ability of each candidate and the charisma factor.
In politics, leaving those two things out practically make any such prediction valueless.
GAC
flamingdem (16,014 posts)
7. breaking news: Witch doctors in gazimbia predict a Romney win
whatevuh!
breaking news: primitives on Skins's island predict an 0bama win.
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Another lurking DUmmy comes out of the closet. Hi DUmmy!
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I'm worried he'll be more Obambam than Bush. But that won't stop the foaming and shit throwing they'll do at the DUmp.
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IIRC, this model correctly predicted the last several races. Doesn't mean it can't be wrong, but they've got a higher batting average than the DUmmies.
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IIRC, this model correctly predicted the last several races. Doesn't mean it can't be wrong, but they've got a higher batting average than the DUmmies.
Yup. From 1980 onward, at least that long.
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IIRC, this model correctly predicted the last several races. Doesn't mean it can't be wrong, but they've got a higher batting average than the DUmmies.
Correctly predicted all of the presidential elections since 1980. This is far more a real and proven theory than AGW. Unlike AGW, this model has been predictive.
However, I still am sticking with 352/186 electoral.
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electronic voting machines.
No wonder I am stuck with Harry Reid in Nevada. :thatsright:
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No wonder I am stuck with Harry Reid in Nevada. :thatsright:
SEIU counts the votes there.
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(http://cdn01.dailycaller.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/electoral-college-png1.jpg)
http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/23/university-of-colorado-prediction-model-points-to-big-romney-win
08/23/2012
University of Colorado prediction model points to big Romney win
<snippet>
A presidential election prediction model developed by two University of Colorado professors points to a big win for GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney in November.
The model, the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980.
It predicts Romney winning the electoral college by a 320-218 margin and winning 52.9 percent of the popular vote when only the two major parties’ candidates are considered, the Associated Press reported Thursday.
Romney, it concluded, will win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
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I will reserve judgment until Truth-is-All runs his Monte Carlo simulations. Hell, TIA can prove that Mondale actually won in 1984.
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I will reserve judgment until Truth-is-All runs his Monte Carlo simulations. Hell, TIA can prove that Mondale actually won in 1984.
I think I saw that mass of fecal matter. Remind me, with a link . . .
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I think I saw that mass of fecal matter. Remind me, with a link . . .
http://richardcharnin.com/ (http://richardcharnin.com/)
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(http://cdn01.dailycaller.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/electoral-college-png1.jpg)
http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/23/university-of-colorado-prediction-model-points-to-big-romney-win
08/23/2012
University of Colorado prediction model points to big Romney win
<snippet>
That is about what I would say, although I would add Michigan and Nevada to it also. They are a toss up of course, but It wouldn't surprise me if Romney both of those states as well.
What would be really pants is if obama loses Illinois. :lmao:
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(http://cdn01.dailycaller.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/electoral-college-png1.jpg)
Jesus that is a beautiful sight. So are all those states just bigot filled or are they logical people? :popcorn:
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That is about what I would say, although I would add Michigan and Nevada to it also. They are a toss up of course, but It wouldn't surprise me if Romney both of those states as well.
What would be really pants is if obama loses Illinois. :lmao:
I saw a model last week--I wish I could remember where--that had Nevada, Oregon, New Mexico, Iowa, and Michigan all red, in addition to the ones in the CU model.
That would be epic. O-) :yahoo:
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In 2008, Obama won Iowa, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Vermont by 200,000 votes or less.
I don't know what percentage of likely voters that is for each state, but it doesn't sound like a lot to me.
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I saw a model last week--I wish I could remember where--that had Nevada, Oregon, New Mexico, Iowa, and Michigan all red, in addition to the ones in the CU model.
That would be epic. O-) :yahoo:
That would somewhat remind me of this map ..
(http://kcjohnson.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/1952-map.png)
Eisenhower got 442 EV, and Stevenson got 89 ...
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In 2008, Obama won Iowa, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Vermont by 200,000 votes or less.
I don't know what percentage of likely voters that is for each state, but it doesn't sound like a lot to me.
Just a suspicion...but Obumbler wouldn't be wasting time in such a small electoral state such as Iowa if their internal polls showed they weren't in trouble. He's been here a ton lately, as have Romney & Ryan.
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Just a suspicion...but Obumbler wouldn't be wasting time in such a small electoral state such as Iowa if their internal polls showed they weren't in trouble. He's been here a ton lately, as have Romney & Ryan.
I concur. H5.
I think that if lots of wealthy libs on the Upper West Side of Manhattan start wavering, and there's evidence to suggest that some are, New York could see a visit from Teh Obamessiah.
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Then there is also this map ...
(http://reagan.procon.org/files/1-reagan-images/1980-presidential-election-map-picture.jpg)
Reagan: 489 - Carter: 49 ... I would love to see that again.
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Just a suspicion...but Obumbler wouldn't be wasting time in such a small electoral state such as Iowa if their internal polls showed they weren't in trouble. He's been here a ton lately, as have Romney & Ryan.
Iowa.....and there's New Hampshire.
That's six electoral votes and four, respectively.
And one assumes much of the "crowds" in New Hampshire consist of 0bama-worshippers from Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, given that they're all such miniature states and it's a half-hour drive to get from one to the other.
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Minnesota flip to red?
Nah, the smurfs of Minniecrapolis out-number regular people working for a living.
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The article mentions possibly New Mexico going red if the 3rd party folks come out strong to vote for a 3rd party candidate.
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Oooops, sorry, didn't realize this was already posted.
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Minnesota flip to red?
Nah, the smurfs of Minniecrapolis out-number regular people working for a living.
I think MN, IA & WI are all in play. Look at where the candidates travel. To me, that is the best indicator on what states will be competitive.
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I think MN, IA & WI are all in play. Look at where the candidates travel. To me, that is the best indicator on what states will be competitive.
I have IA and WI as Romney's already. Obama just doubled his campaign operations in New Mexico. So that is Romney's as of now. I predict that Nevada, Oregon and Washington are also in play (.65 all go for R2). As to Michigan, what Super Genius brings in a governor that devastated her state to yell and scream if he does not want to lose it?
After that disaster of a convention and the death star just firing up My electoral is going to get revised up.
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MN? PA? Pipe dream.
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I think MN, IA & WI are all in play. Look at where the candidates travel. To me, that is the best indicator on what states will be competitive.
I wish you were correct, Ralph.
Unfortunately, their past history of responsible voting isn't exactly "stellar".
Might I point out a certain governor, and a current senator?
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I wish you were correct, Ralph.
Unfortunately, their past history of responsible voting isn't exactly "stellar".
Might I point out a certain governor, and a current senator?
Minnesota probably won't go for Romney. But Iowa & Wisconsin certainly can.
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Minnesota probably won't go for Romney. But Iowa & Wisconsin certainly can.
That one is possible.
Just can't see MN, doing it.
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I wish you were correct, Ralph.
Unfortunately, their past history of responsible voting isn't exactly "stellar".
Might I point out a certain governor, and a current senator?
It should also be pointed out that Al Franken did cheat to win.
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southernyankeebelle (7,053 posts)
3. With voter suppression is the only way I see him winning. I just can't believe people will vote Mittens in to repeat the Bush administration.
You dumbasses can't see him winning because you never leave your little cocoon of True Believers and sample the air of reality. Anyone new who comes in talking about Obama's troubles gets banned. Old-timers who try to provide some real-world perspective get shouted down and accused of trying to "demoralize" people, which in turn has a chilling effect on anyone else speaking out. You live in a cannabis-fueled fantasyland.