DU DUbble Down on Global Warming

[thundley4]

villager (19,970 posts)  Wed Jan 1, 2014, 07:16 PM

Slate: Climate Change Vastly Worse Than Previously Thought

A new study published in Nature suggests that climate change is even worse than scientists had previously anticipated, upgrading the forecast from "dangerous" to "catastrophic." According to the study's authors, temperatures are currently snared in an upward spiral: As earth gets hotter, the heat prevents sunlight-reflecting clouds from forming, trapping more heat and further exacerbating the problem. The result could be a temperature climb of 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.

The alarming report follows yet another confirmation, this time by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that humans are almost indubitably the drivers of climate change. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has expressed concern, stating that "if this isn't an alarm bell, then I don't know what one is. If ever there were an issue that demanded greater cooperation, partnership, and committed diplomacy, this is it."

But the unnerving escalaton in climate change is unlikely to be abated without significant U.S. support—and for the time being, the Republican Party insists on stonewalling any efforts to offset the human-caused warming process. Given that the U.S. is the second biggest contributor to climate change, its participation in any international resolution is absolutely vital. Yet with one major political party blocking such support, the odds seem increasingly likely that 2100 will, indeed, bring with it a "catastrophic" increase of global heat.

<snip>

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024262649

AverageJoe90 (6,603 posts)
4. Unfortunately, the study quoted here seems to be *extremely* flawed.

Last edited Wed Jan 1, 2014, 09:14 PM - Edit history (1)

As I pointed out elsewhere, temperature rise hasn't been all that underestimated, and in fact, if anything, the middle models have been the most on target so far; if climate sensitivity really was supposed to be as high as 5*C per doubling by 2100 we'd be far warmer than we are now; right now, we're at around .65-.7*C as of now with 400 ppm in the atmosphere; this would support an overall estimate of about 2-2.5*C, maybe 3*C at the most, per doubling by 2100, and that's with moderate(though not quite severe) feedbacks assumed for the latter.

I'm sorry, but unless they took into account other possible feedbacks that we haven't been informed about here, they may need to go back to the drawing board for this one.

^Deniers are not allowed.

joshcryer (43,314 posts)
10. "the mistakes ... predict less warming, not ... more"

"Climate sceptics like to criticise climate models for getting things wrong, and we are the first to admit they are not perfect," said Sherwood. "But what we are finding is that the mistakes are being made by the models which predict less warming, not those that predict more."

He added: "Sceptics may also point to the 'hiatus' of temperatures since the end of the 20th century, but there is increasing evidence that this inaptly named hiatus is not seen in other measures of the climate system, and is almost certainly temporary."

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/31/planet-will-warm-4c-2100-climate?view=desktop
I'm a Huey Long Democrat. They've got a set of Republican waiters on one side and a set of Democratic waiters on the other side, but no matter which set of waiters brings you the dish, the legislative grub is all prepared in the same Wall Street kitchen. - 1932

Response to joshcryer (Reply #10)Wed Jan 1, 2014, 10:05 PM
AverageJoe90 (6,603 posts)
12. Sherwood, unfortunately, was definitely incorrect on this one.

As can be seen, the most pessimistic models have been quite a bit off course in terms of temperature rises.....well, of course, so were the most optimistic ones as well, so that leaves the middle course, which is about 3*C per doubling with some notable feedbacks or about 2-2.5*C without any significant feedbacks.

XemaSab (58,204 posts)
19. Too bad DU doesn't ban people for being deniers

Why do DUmmies continue to believe in theories when reality proves them wrong?

[Jmartin]

Yet this summer was one of the coolest on record across the nation. We can't even accurately predict the weekly weather, but yet some how we can say with absolute certainty what the climate will be like in 100 years.

[tanstaafl]

That study referenced in the OP was done in the interior of Australia. I think it has more to do with the new PM wanting to do away with their Carbon Tax than anything else.

[Dori]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024262649

Why do DUmmies continue to believe in theories when reality proves them wrong?

That's a loaded question.  Why do they?   

[98ZJUSMC]

Heh....the scam gets called so, make a bigger lie.

[Jmartin]

Heh....the scam gets called so, make a bigger lie.

Global Warming is falling apart at the seams. That is one reason why they are using more aggressive terms lately.

[98ZJUSMC]

Yet this summer was one of the coolest on record across the nation. We can't even accurately predict the weekly weather, but yet some how we can say with absolute certainty what the climate will be like in 100 years.

...and with precision, it would seem, determine that human activity is the driving factor, even though one volcanic event will exceed the CO2 emission of recorded human history.

Watch the petite gears grind in their widdle brains when you lay that on them.

we're at around .65-.7*C as of now with 400 ppm

Even the quasi-Denier is pulling crap out his ass.   

[JohnnyReb]

...and with precision, it would seem, determine that human activity is the driving factor, even though one volcanic event will exceed the CO2 emission of recorded human history.

Watch the petite gears grind in their widdle brains when you lay that on them.

Even the quasi-Denier is pulling crap out his ass.   

DUmmies should consume more fiber(info).....then they wouldn't have to pull crap out their ass.

[DumbAss Tanker]

I am somewhat curious about the basis for their conclusion that increasing heat will decrease cloud cover, if anything it seems it would have the opposite effect in that global atmospheric humidity would increase...increased clouds would of course increase the planetary albedo, and thus tend to moderate the warming, all other things being equal.

[tanstaafl]

I am somewhat curious about the basis for their conclusion that increasing heat will decrease cloud cover, if anything it seems it would have the opposite effect in that global atmospheric humidity would increase...increased clouds would of course increase the planetary albedo, and thus tend to moderate the warming, all other things being equal.

DAT, you heretic! Quit talking sense, dammit. Didn't you read the part about the computer models were wrong?

[DumbAss Tanker]

Didn't you read the part about the computer models were wrong?

So why trust different ones more?

 

[tanstaafl]

So why trust different ones more?

 

Because 

or something, like losing their grant money.

[Mike220]

So why trust different ones more?

 

Because your betters command it! 

[BlueStateSaint]

I am somewhat curious about the basis for their conclusion that increasing heat will decrease cloud cover, if anything it seems it would have the opposite effect in that global atmospheric humidity would increase...increased clouds would of course increase the planetary albedo, and thus tend to moderate the warming, all other things being equal.

Ain't that some sauce that is served on pasta?

[wasp69]

XemaSab (58,204 posts)
19. Too bad DU doesn't ban people for being deniers

Too bad society does not sterilize the insane. 

Two can play the hyperbole game, DUmmie.

[FlippyDoo]

Man-made Climate Change is real I tell you, and I have proof. I'm sitting here next to a man-made heater and I'm warm. When I go outside I'm cold. The difference in temperature is so great that you can actually feel it.

[Bad Dog]

I just ask the believers, what in fact is the ideal temperature for the earth?  If you can't answer that, how can you believe the warming/cooling/change that apparently isn't happening is bad?

The other one that drives me nuts are the claims of sea level rising in certain locations when I've lived on the water for the last 25 years an have observed the sea level has not changed.  

[thundley4]

Some idiots like to claim that the earth could warm up to where it was during the dinosaur age.  What caused that warming?  Jesus riding his dinosaur?

[Vagabond]

I am somewhat curious about the basis for their conclusion that increasing heat will decrease cloud cover, if anything it seems it would have the opposite effect in that global atmospheric humidity would increase...increased clouds would of course increase the planetary albedo, and thus tend to moderate the warming, all other things being equal.

That's the thing about their models.  Increase air temperature enough, and yes, it does tend to not hold water as well, but well before that, the ocean is going to evaporate quite a lot adding moisture to the air, which would temporarily cause a green house effect, then it would all come back down rather quickly after moisture forced cloud formation.

Basically, their models call for less cloud cover, or not, either way it can be claimed to be global warming.

[FlaGator]

I just ask the believers, what in fact is the ideal temperature for the earth?  If you can't answer that, how can you believe the warming/cooling/change that apparently isn't happening is bad?

The other one that drives me nuts are the claims of sea level rising in certain locations when I've lived on the water for the last 25 years an have observed the sea level has not changed.  

I would also like to know how one determines the global temperature of the Earth? What are the conditions that are used to calculate the temperature? How high above sea level? How far north or south of the equator? How far away from the sea shore?

[Maxiest]

I have so many questions for them.

Why is Greenland covered in ice and Iceland green?

Didn't Glaciers create the Grand Canyons?  Has any human that we know off seen said glaciers?  So it was getting warmer before most any human was around?  So humans cause warming?

Why is it when I look at the record highs for my area most of them were in the 70's?

Why is it that this week in my area going to probably break record lows?

Why isn't the ice gone like Al Gore said it would be 5 years ago?

Where was the best place to grow grapes in Europe in the 1800's?  Why isn't it now?

[DumbAss Tanker]

Ain't that some sauce that is served on pasta?

We can't take you anywhere, can we?

 

j/k!

[GOBUCKS]

The other one that drives me nuts are the claims of sea level rising in certain locations when I've lived on the water for the last 25 years an have observed the sea level has not changed.

They sometimes speak of sea level changes in terms of centimeters, whereas everything I've read on the subject indicates it's virtually impossible to measure sea level to that precision.

Then they'll talk about some god-forsaken Pacific island or muzzy-infested Asian swamp that's being inundated because Americans have electricity in their homes.

[BlueStateSaint]

We can't take you anywhere, can we?

 

j/k!

No, you can't.

BEG or Schade, OTOH . . .

[DumbAss Tanker]

No, you can't.

BEG or Schade, OTOH . . .

They'll make you bring a note from your wife, you know...