You are implying "independents" are all moderates and, you would be wrong.
Nope cause you could say all Repubs are conservatives, and you would be wrong. It is also true that some blue dog democrats of yesteryear were more conservative than RINO's. I am stating the poll that when voters were asked whether they are Repubs, Democrats or Independents, the majority said they voted independently of either party. My take is that independent voters were put off on the shutdown and punished the Repub candidate in VA. That is my opinion of why he lost.
I registered as a democrat over 40 years ago because the state would not allow cross voting in primaries and at that time the Repub party was very weak. Never voted for a Democrat in my life.