Thursday Poll Update: McCain +8 in FL, +1 in OH

[Tess Anderson]

I still wouldn't put too much stock into the polls, but from Rasmussen today:

There was a time—not too long ago—when calling for offshore oil drilling in Florida was a sure way to lose an election. But, that was back before the price of gas passed the $4.00 a gallon mark. Some political observers think that price increase may be a game-changing event in the politics of the issue and Republican Presidential hopeful John McCain is putting that theory to the test. Early indications are that his call for offshore drilling may boost his campaign in the Sunshine State.

Rasmussen Reports conducted a special Florida survey to measure the immediate impact of the offshore drilling issue on the Presidential race. As one part of the survey, respondents were told that McCain favored offshore drilling and said it would bring down the price of gas and oil. They were also told that Barack Obama opposed offshore drilling and said it would not bring down the price of gas and oil. After hearing the views of both McCain and Obama, most Florida voters agreed with McCain--61% said it was likely that offshore drilling would reduce gas prices. Only 34% disagreed and said that offshore drilling would not accomplish that goal.

Not surprisingly, 85% of Republicans agreed with McCain’s perspective. However, Democrats were evenly divided—45% of those in Obama’s party agreed with McCain and said offshore drilling was likely to reduce the price of oil and gas. Just 48% of Democrats agree with Obama on this point. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 51% said drilling was likely to reduce prices and 38% disagreed. These findings help explain why the Obama has responded so aggressively to challenge McCain on this issue over the past couple of days.

The Florida survey also found that McCain currently leads Obama in the state by a 47% to 39% margin. Six percent (6%) said they would vote for some other candidate while 8% are undecided.

However, after voters were told that McCain favored offshore drilling and Obama opposed it, McCain’s lead increased to eleven points, 49% to 38%. While a three-point net gain is not stunning, it is significant that the issue didn’t push voters towards Obama. All of McCain’s gains on the offshore drilling issue came from male voters.

The survey was conducted the day after McCain formally called for allowing states to implement offshore drilling and Florida Governor Charlie Crist stunned some politicos by indicating his support as well. It is likely that some survey participants were aware of the candidates’ positions on offshore drilling before taking the survey. Therefore, some of the impact may have been factored into the initial ballot question. A month ago, McCain held a ten-point lead over Obama in Florida. Since then, Obama has clinched the Democratic Presidential Nomination and benefitted from a bounce nationally and in most state polls.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 57% of Florida voters, Obama by 51%. Those figures reflect a seven-point gain over the past month for McCain and a three-point gain for Obama.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Florida voters say Governor Crist is doing a good or an excellent job, up a point over the past month. Just 17% say he is doing a poor job.

Rasmussen Markets shows that McCain is currently given a 65.0 % chance of winning Florida this fall. As this poll is released, Florida is rated “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. Balance of Power projections indicate that the Electoral College scoreboard is a toss-up at this time.

Rasmussen Reports will conduct another Florida survey within the next couple of weeks to track the issue further and measure any lasting impact as the campaigns seek to further define the issue. 

Rasmussen Poll: Ohio 6/18

McCain 44%
Obama 43%



John McCain and Barack Obama remain in a statistical dead heat in the key swing state of Ohio, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Buckeye State.

McCain holds a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Obama, 44% to 43%, among likely voters. Seven percent (7%) favor a third-party candidate and 7% are undecided.

A month ago, when Hillary Clinton was still in the Democratic race, McCain also held an insignificant one-point lead over Obama and the GOP hopeful actually polled 7% lower than Clinton among Ohio voters. Clinton defeated Obama in the Ohio Primary by 8 percentage points.

Both candidates have experienced similar bumps in their favorability ratings. McCain is now viewed favorably by 58%, up from 53% in May. Obama gets favorable marks from 53% of the state’s voters, up from 47%.

The survey, taken Tuesday night, suggests that the modest bounce in the polls that Obama experienced nationwide following Clinton’s departure from the race may be settling out. Nationally, Obama retains a modest lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Also, early this week McCain and Obama sparred over the need for offshore drilling to help curb rising gas prices. Seventy-one percent (71%) of Ohio voters agree with McCain’s position that the ban on offshore drilling should be lifted, while 18% disagree. Nationally, there is strong support for this approach.

Although Obama campaigned in Ohio last Friday to promote his domestic economic agenda, his campaign was forced to spend much of its time knocking down reports that it believes it can win the presidency without the Buckeye State’s 20 Electoral College votes.

Interestingly nearly half of Ohio voters (48%) think Obama is too inexperienced to be president, although 44% don’t agree and nine percent (9%) are undecided.

McCain now leads by three percentage points among men (45% to 42%), but he and Obama each have 43% of the female vote.

With Clinton out of the race, Obama’s share of the Democratic vote has increased to 73%, up from 65% last month. Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Republicans back McCain, up two percentage points from May.

Perhaps reflecting his maverick image, McCain has a 44% to 38% edge over his Democratic opponent among moderate voters. More predictably, 71% of conservatives support McCain while 77% of liberals back Obama.

McCain still leads among most voters in the $20,000-$100,000 income range, while those earning less or more than those amounts continue to favor Obama.

Ohio was key to President Bush’s reelection in 2004, going narrowly for him over John Kerry. Bush also carried the state in 2000, but Ohio swung to Democrat Bill Clinton in the two previous presidential contests.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a 59.0 % chance of carrying Ohio this November. Ohio is still rated a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. In terms of Electoral College votes, it is currently the largest of the Toss-Up states.

In the new survey, only 28% of Ohio voters think Clinton should be Obama’s running mate, with 55% opposed. Clinton will make her first campaign appearance with Obama next week since quitting the race.

Two out of three voters (66%) do not think McCain is too old to be president, while 31% say he is.

For Ohio voters, bringing the troops home is more importantly than winning the war – 53% to 39%. Those figures are very similar to the national average.

Like most voters nationwide, 71% think government has become a special interest of its own. Fifteen percent (15%) of Ohio voters disagree. Three out of four voters (75%) say the government does not represent the will of the people, although 13% think it does.

Ohio voters are divided on the benefits of free trade for the U.S. economy, with 38% seeing it is a good thing, 34% characterizing it as bad, and 19% saying neither. This is similar to the national mood which also shows that 56% believe the North American Free Trade Agreement should be renegotiated.

Forty-nine percent (49%) oppose nationalizing U.S. oil companies, while 34% favor such a move.

Nearly half of Ohio voters (49%) say President Bush is doing a poor job, while 35% give him good or excellent marks.

Approval ratings for Gov. Ted Strickland, a Democrat, remain virtually unchanged, with 47% rating his job performance good or excellent. Fifteen percent (15%) rate him poor.

 

I still maintain he's unelectable.

[Wretched Excess]

these two rassmussen polls tend to indicate that the Quinippiac poll was trash.  but I think we all already knew that.

[Jim]

I still maintain he's unelectable.

seriously ?   

I don't see how he can lose unless he starts shooting his own feet off faster than BHO is doing.  And he IS plinking toes here and there.

BHO has really hurt himself with this.  YEAH !

[WinOne4TheGipper]

I still wouldn't put too much stock into the polls, but from Rasmussen today:

I still maintain he's unelectable.

I maintain that they're both unelectable, but unless something dramatic happens, one of them will end up elected.  For what it's worth, here's my latest prediction map, based on the averaging of the last three available polls for each state (red for Obama, blue for McCain):

[Doc]

I still wouldn't put too much stock into the polls, but from Rasmussen today:

I still maintain he's unelectable.

I maintain that they're both unelectable, but unless something dramatic happens, one of them will end up elected.  For what it's worth, here's my latest prediction map, based on the averaging of the last three available polls for each state (red for Obama, blue for McCain):

I would be not surprised, but AMAZED if Obama won my home state of Missouri, regardless of what the polls show........we have some interesting groups here......

In the Ozarks, the bulk of the folks would not vote for a black candidate at gunpoint......I know its "racist", but they are, and proudly so.  The "War of Northern Agression" is still being fought down there, and there is no end in sight.

The central and northern portions of the state are largely agricultural, and light industrial, and are generally quite conservative.

The two urban cores of KC and St Louis are very liberal (and largely black), but unlike Illinois (and Chicago) they simply don't have the numbers to overwhelm the states vote.  These two cities are surrounded by suburbs that are the home to many of the "Christian Right", there are two churches on every block.  These folks occasionally elect a Democrat, but generally of the "Ike Skelton" variety of somewhat moderate stripe.

If the Dems were running a moderate instead of a moonbat, I would consider it possible, but I don't see it happening this presidential cycle.  The union vote is a factor here, but McCain appeals to these folks, where Obama does not.

Gun rights are very important to Missourians (the state is full of hunters).......the "gay agenda" has been soundly rejected (we still have sodomy laws on the books....never repealed.....after the Texas SCOTUS decision, the Dems in the state legislature mounted an effort to repeal them as a symbolic gesture.....it was defeated by a margin of 75 - 25%)).

The media likes to refer to Missouri as a "battleground" or "swing" state, but in reality people here will have much respect for John McCain's military record, and experience as a political leader......I would be surprised if he did not win the state by about a 60 - 40 margin.....

doc

[WinOne4TheGipper]

I still wouldn't put too much stock into the polls, but from Rasmussen today:

I still maintain he's unelectable.

I maintain that they're both unelectable, but unless something dramatic happens, one of them will end up elected.  For what it's worth, here's my latest prediction map, based on the averaging of the last three available polls for each state (red for Obama, blue for McCain):

I would be not surprised, but AMAZED if Obama won my home state of Missouri, regardless of what the polls show........we have some interesting groups here......

In the Ozarks, the bulk of the folks would not vote for a black candidate at gunpoint......I know its "racist", but they are, and proudly so.  The "War of Northern Agression" is still being fought down there, and there is no end in sight.

The central and northern portions of the state are largely agricultural, and light industrial, and are generally quite conservative.

The two urban cores of KC and St Louis are very liberal (and largely black), but unlike Illinois (and Chicago) they simply don't have the numbers to overwhelm the states vote.  These two cities are surrounded by suburbs that are the home to many of the "Christian Right", there are two churches on every block.  These folks occasionally elect a Democrat, but generally of the "Ike Skelton" variety of somewhat moderate stripe.

If the Dems were running a moderate instead of a moonbat, I would consider it possible, but I don't see it happening this presidential cycle.  The union vote is a factor here, but McCain appeals to these folks, where Obama does not.

Gun rights are very important to Missourians (the state is full of hunters).......the "gay agenda" has been soundly rejected (we still have sodomy laws on the books....never repealed).

The media likes to refer to Missouri as a "battleground" or "swing" state, but in reality people here will have much respect for John McCain's military record, and experience as a political leader......I would be surprised if he did not win the state by about a 60 - 40 margin.....

doc

Thanks for the comments.  Going back over the Misouri polls on Wikipedia, McCain has led 7 of the 10 polls available, even by as much as 15 points a couple of weeks after he secured the nomination.  I think that a bunch of Obama's momentum can be attributed to the post nomination bump and we'll soon see some of these traditional Republican states (Indiana!?) back in the McCain fold, pretty much to stay.