Quinnipiac Battleground State Poll : Obama Leads in FL, PA, and OH (BAD news)

[Wretched Excess]

and we were just saying yesterday that his poll numbers haven't moved since he clinched the
nomination.   I tend to suspect this entire poll because I just don't believe the numbers
for florida.

but this could represent hillary supporters and independents shifting to Obama.

52-40 in PA
48-42 on OH
47-43 in FL

It looks like Sen. Barack Obama got the expected "bounce" out of wrapping up the Democratic nomination for president.
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A Quinnipiac University poll released today shows Obama leading Sen. John McCain in three important swing states, but his lead is relatively small in Florida. The Quinnipiac pollsters said women and young people are the mainstays of Obama's support in all three states.

"Finally getting Sen. Hillary Clinton out of the race has been a big boost for Sen. Barack Obama," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Sen. Obama is certainly not out of the woods, but these results are a good indication that he enters the summer slightly ahead in the race to be the next president."

Most political experts agree that Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania are the key states next November, and that whoever wins two out of three of them will be president. Today's poll showed Obama leading McCain by 52-40 percent in Pennsylvania, 48-42 percent in Ohio and by 47-43 percent in Florida.

That's well beyond the poll's margin of error in all three states.

Quinnipiac said McCain is trailing by 10 to 23 points in those states among women voters, while the vote among men was too close to call. Obama also has double-digit leads among young voters in all three states.

The polls were conducted over the past week in all three states, with a margin of error of 2.6 percent in Florida and Ohio, and 2.5 percent in Pennsylvania.

The poll also indicated that putting Clinton on the ticket for vice president wouldn't help Obama in the three states, which she carried in the primaries. Brown also said that "picking a Floridian for vice president apparently won't help either nominee carry the state's 27 electoral votes."

Gov. Charlie Crist has been prominently touted by Florida party officials as a running mate for McCain. There has also been speculation about Sen. Bill Nelson teaming up with Obama.

Link

[Wretched Excess]

RCP says the poll was taken 6/9 through 6/16.  there's a weekend in there, which, historically, tends to
depress republican numbers . . . .

[Lord Undies]

I read this story/poll earlier this morning.  I went to the website.  I could not find any internal information about how when or where the poll was conducted.  I could not find out how many of these likely voters polled were democrats and their independent cousins and how many were republicans.  

These polls are getting to the saturation point.  Everyday another ten unsubstantiated polls hit the public square.  They are all free commercials for Obama.  They remind me of the widely broadcast polls in 2004 which showed John Kerry with a national advantage of 9-12% over President Bush.  It took some digging to find out that those polls were based on the answers from (at least) one and one quarter democrats for every republican.

"Likely voters" doesn't mean a thing.  It doesn't tell us a thing.  A real poll, if one exists, would tell us that McCain has a pretty easy ride into the White House.  Of course, no one wants to admit it.   The over all picture is so bleak for Obama, I am still not convinced he will be the democrat candidate.  Obama is a liability and cannot pull off an electoral election.    

[Tucker]

Even if it's true, it's early.

[Jim]

Even if it's true, it's early.

and realistically, McC has hardly begun to campaign.  no value in it really.  only political junkies care before fall.

[franksolich]

Sorry to object, and to strenuously object, but it's w-a-a-a-a-a-a-y too early to be bothered by polls.

I've seen this all my life; the only polls that illuminate are those taken just before an election, like a week or a few days before.   Polls taken months and months before elections don't mean squat.

The only usefulness one can get out of early polls is an early indication which way people are trending, and candidates usually have a campaign staff to devise strategies to influence people to gradually swing in their favor.

I've lived my whole life through this; I'm not seeing anything I haven't seen before.

Barry "Goldwater" Obama is bound to make some major gaffe somewhere along the line, and by late October, we're going to see the same thing we saw in 1972 and 1984, the big-city machine bosses abandoning the top of the ticket and working desperately creating votes to save those Democrats further down the ballot.

Wait and see if I'm not right.

I wish I could articulate why I feel this way--muddyemms asked me to, but I couldn't--but there you have it, my gut instinct.  Wait and see if I'm not right.

[Willow]

and we were just saying yesterday that his poll numbers haven't moved since he clinched the
nomination.   I tend to suspect this entire poll because I just don't believe the numbers
for florida.

but this could represent hillary supporters and independents shifting to Obama.

52-40 in PA
48-42 on OH
47-43 in FL

It looks like Sen. Barack Obama got the expected "bounce" out of wrapping up the Democratic nomination for president.
Advertisement

A Quinnipiac University poll released today shows Obama leading Sen. John McCain in three important swing states, but his lead is relatively small in Florida. The Quinnipiac pollsters said women and young people are the mainstays of Obama's support in all three states.

"Finally getting Sen. Hillary Clinton out of the race has been a big boost for Sen. Barack Obama," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Sen. Obama is certainly not out of the woods, but these results are a good indication that he enters the summer slightly ahead in the race to be the next president."

Most political experts agree that Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania are the key states next November, and that whoever wins two out of three of them will be president. Today's poll showed Obama leading McCain by 52-40 percent in Pennsylvania, 48-42 percent in Ohio and by 47-43 percent in Florida.

That's well beyond the poll's margin of error in all three states.

Quinnipiac said McCain is trailing by 10 to 23 points in those states among women voters, while the vote among men was too close to call. Obama also has double-digit leads among young voters in all three states.

The polls were conducted over the past week in all three states, with a margin of error of 2.6 percent in Florida and Ohio, and 2.5 percent in Pennsylvania.

The poll also indicated that putting Clinton on the ticket for vice president wouldn't help Obama in the three states, which she carried in the primaries. Brown also said that "picking a Floridian for vice president apparently won't help either nominee carry the state's 27 electoral votes."

Gov. Charlie Crist has been prominently touted by Florida party officials as a running mate for McCain. There has also been speculation about Sen. Bill Nelson teaming up with Obama.

Link

I tend to agree with you WE. I think political strategists publish "poll" number to infulence votes. Theory is everybody wants to vote for the winner. I don't believe the Florida votes either. McCain had better use good sense and put Mitt Romney on his ticket. He will carry Michigan and Ohio.

[Tess Anderson]

RCP says the poll was taken 6/9 through 6/16.  there's a weekend in there, which, historically, tends to
depress republican numbers . . . .

That's a little too long to do a poll, ther best ones over two or three days, not seven.

Still, Barack Hussein Obama should be 10-20 points ahead at this point, and I don't see any "bounce" - those numbers haven't changed much at all.

[Rebel]

I don't trust polls.

[Wretched Excess]

I read this story/poll earlier this morning.  I went to the website.  I could not find any internal information about how when or where the poll was conducted.  I could not find out how many of these likely voters polled were democrats and their independent cousins and how many were republicans. 

These polls are getting to the saturation point.  Everyday another ten unsubstantiated polls hit the public square.  They are all free commercials for Obama.  They remind me of the widely broadcast polls in 2004 which showed John Kerry with a national advantage of 9-12% over President Bush.  It took some digging to find out that those polls were based on the answers from (at least) one and one quarter democrats for every republican.

"Likely voters" doesn't mean a thing.  It doesn't tell us a thing.  A real poll, if one exists, would tell us that McCain has a pretty easy ride into the White House.  Of course, no one wants to admit it.   The over all picture is so bleak for Obama, I am still not convinced he will be the democrat candidate.  Obama is a liability and cannot pull off an electoral election.     

how is he not going to be the democrat candidate?

[formerlurker]

It's June.  Polls mean little to nothing now outside of campaign fundraising.

Lots of mud to be thrown, VPs to be picked, conventions to be had..... and of course the October surprise.

McCain has been up, down, and around the block many times.   His closet has been completely emptied.    The lock just got popped off of Obama's closet......

[Lord Undies]

I read this story/poll earlier this morning.  I went to the website.  I could not find any internal information about how when or where the poll was conducted.  I could not find out how many of these likely voters polled were democrats and their independent cousins and how many were republicans. 

These polls are getting to the saturation point.  Everyday another ten unsubstantiated polls hit the public square.  They are all free commercials for Obama.  They remind me of the widely broadcast polls in 2004 which showed John Kerry with a national advantage of 9-12% over President Bush.  It took some digging to find out that those polls were based on the answers from (at least) one and one quarter democrats for every republican.

"Likely voters" doesn't mean a thing.  It doesn't tell us a thing.  A real poll, if one exists, would tell us that McCain has a pretty easy ride into the White House.  Of course, no one wants to admit it.   The over all picture is so bleak for Obama, I am still not convinced he will be the democrat candidate.  Obama is a liability and cannot pull off an electoral election.     

how is he not going to be the democrat candidate?

Presumed candidates can find all sorts of forks in the road to the White House.  You being a political junkie makes me surprised you asked.

[Jim]

how is he not going to be the democrat candidate?

if the supers decide to change their minds, he's out.
that presumes something very significant coming to light. 

likely ?   maybe not.  impossible ?  hock up that Michelle whitey tape and lets see !

[Wretched Excess]

this poll smells.  the florida numbers are suspect, and I'm not buying the PA numbers, either.  in 2004, kerry
carried PA 51-49.  I just don't see how 12 points can be accurate.

same with OH;  kerry only won by 2 points in 2004.

[Lord Undies]

this poll smells.  the florida numbers are suspect, and I'm not buying the PA numbers, either.  in 2004, kerry
carried PA 51-49.  I just don't see how 12 points can be accurate.

same with OH;  kerry only won by 2 points in 2004.

When did Kerry win Ohio by 2 points? 

[Wretched Excess]

I read this story/poll earlier this morning.  I went to the website.  I could not find any internal information about how when or where the poll was conducted.  I could not find out how many of these likely voters polled were democrats and their independent cousins and how many were republicans. 

These polls are getting to the saturation point.  Everyday another ten unsubstantiated polls hit the public square.  They are all free commercials for Obama.  They remind me of the widely broadcast polls in 2004 which showed John Kerry with a national advantage of 9-12% over President Bush.  It took some digging to find out that those polls were based on the answers from (at least) one and one quarter democrats for every republican.

"Likely voters" doesn't mean a thing.  It doesn't tell us a thing.  A real poll, if one exists, would tell us that McCain has a pretty easy ride into the White House.  Of course, no one wants to admit it.   The over all picture is so bleak for Obama, I am still not convinced he will be the democrat candidate.  Obama is a liability and cannot pull off an electoral election.     

how is he not going to be the democrat candidate?

Presumed candidates can find all sorts of forks in the road to the White House.  You being a political junkie makes me surprised you asked.

barring some hopelessly unlikely and earth shattering revelation, I don't see any way that he won't be the democrat nominee.  that was what I questioned.

[franksolich]

this poll smells.  the florida numbers are suspect, and I'm not buying the PA numbers, either.  in 2004, kerry
carried PA 51-49.  I just don't see how 12 points can be accurate.

same with OH;  kerry only won by 2 points in 2004.

When did Kerry win Ohio by 2 points? 

Well, a prominent vote-fraud activist was ten bucks away from proving the Bostonian Billionaire won Ohio over George Bush, but then the malicious cartoon character primitive tripped her up, and she never got that last ten bucks.

[Wretched Excess]

this poll smells.  the florida numbers are suspect, and I'm not buying the PA numbers, either.  in 2004, kerry
carried PA 51-49.  I just don't see how 12 points can be accurate.

same with OH;  kerry only won by 2 points in 2004.

When did Kerry win Ohio by 2 points? 

brain damaged typo.   bush won by two points, of course.   but the point remains;  these numbers just seem totally out of kilter with past polls and past electoral history.

[Jim]

this poll smells.  the florida numbers are suspect, and I'm not buying the PA numbers, either.  in 2004, kerry
carried PA 51-49.  I just don't see how 12 points can be accurate.

same with OH;  kerry only won by 2 points in 2004.

of course its suspect.

if you suspected that polling in the past might have been slanted, it goes double this cycle.

but they also had polls showing JFK winning easily, didn't work out that way in real life.

[Wretched Excess]

this poll smells.  the florida numbers are suspect, and I'm not buying the PA numbers, either.  in 2004, kerry
carried PA 51-49.  I just don't see how 12 points can be accurate.

same with OH;  kerry only won by 2 points in 2004.

of course its suspect.

if you suspected that polling in the past might have been slanted, it goes double this cycle.

but they also had polls showing JFK winning easily, didn't work out that way in real life.

I am well versed in how polls work, their past history of success, and what their overall value is at this point in a presidential election.  nonetheless, I find them interesting, and so I post them.  others like to discuss them, too.

but none of us here are so deluded as to think that the world has ended because of the results of a single polling firm that has nothing but a history of inaccuracy.

[Lord Undies]

this poll smells.  the florida numbers are suspect, and I'm not buying the PA numbers, either.  in 2004, kerry
carried PA 51-49.  I just don't see how 12 points can be accurate.

same with OH;  kerry only won by 2 points in 2004.

When did Kerry win Ohio by 2 points? 

brain damaged typo.   bush won by two points, of course.   but the point remains;  these numbers just seem totally out of kilter with past polls and past electoral history.

I though the State of Oh may have been one of those states #51 - #57 that only you and Obama know about. 

[Jim]

this poll smells.  the florida numbers are suspect, and I'm not buying the PA numbers, either.  in 2004, kerry
carried PA 51-49.  I just don't see how 12 points can be accurate.

same with OH;  kerry only won by 2 points in 2004.

of course its suspect.

if you suspected that polling in the past might have been slanted, it goes double this cycle.

but they also had polls showing JFK winning easily, didn't work out that way in real life.

I am well versed in how polls work, their past history of success, and what their overall value is at this point in a presidential election.  nonetheless, I find them interesting, and so I post them.  others like to discuss them, too.

but none of us here are so deluded as to think that the world has ended because of the results of a single polling firm that has nothing but a history of inaccuracy.

OK, you obviously still have a problem with me.  Its your bat and ball, I get that.

[Wretched Excess]

this poll smells.  the florida numbers are suspect, and I'm not buying the PA numbers, either.  in 2004, kerry
carried PA 51-49.  I just don't see how 12 points can be accurate.

same with OH;  kerry only won by 2 points in 2004.

When did Kerry win Ohio by 2 points? 

brain damaged typo.   bush won by two points, of course.   but the point remains;  these numbers just seem totally out of kilter with past polls and past electoral history.

I though the State of Oh may have been one of those states #51 - #57 that only you and Obama know about. 

I just think the poll is all f*cked up.  that is a highly technical term from the world of statistics.

[Wretched Excess]

this poll smells.  the florida numbers are suspect, and I'm not buying the PA numbers, either.  in 2004, kerry
carried PA 51-49.  I just don't see how 12 points can be accurate.

same with OH;  kerry only won by 2 points in 2004.

of course its suspect.

if you suspected that polling in the past might have been slanted, it goes double this cycle.

but they also had polls showing JFK winning easily, didn't work out that way in real life.

I am well versed in how polls work, their past history of success, and what their overall value is at this point in a presidential election.  nonetheless, I find them interesting, and so I post them.  others like to discuss them, too.

but none of us here are so deluded as to think that the world has ended because of the results of a single polling firm that has nothing but a history of inaccuracy.

OK, you obviously still have a problem with me.  Its your bat and ball, I get that.

now I am confused.  

[Miss Mia]

New ARG Poll:

Florida:
June 18, 2008 - Florida General Election Preference
Florida
Likely voters    June 13-17
McCain    44%
Obama    49%
Undecided    7%
Sample size: 600 likely voters
Sample dates: June 13-17, 2008
Question wording: If the general election were being held today between John McCain, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat, for whom would you vote - McCain or Obama? (names rotated)


Barack Obama leads John McCain 77% to 16% among Democrats (43% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 75% to 18% among Republicans (38% of likely voters). And Obama leads McCain 47% to 43% among independent voters (19% of likely voters).

Obama leads McCain 48% to 46% among men (47% of likely voters). Among women, Obama leads 49% to 43%.

McCain leads Obama 48% to 45% among white voters (73% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 88% to 8% among African American voters (11% of likely voters). And McCain leads Obama 50% to 41% among Hispanic voters (16% of likely voters).

Obama leads McCain 52% to 42% among voters age 18 to 49 (45% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (55% of likely voters),  Obama and McCain are tied at 46% each.

35% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election and 46% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election.

When Bill Nelson and Charlie Crist are placed on the same ballot as possible vice presidential running mates, McCain leads Obama 43% to 42%, with 15% undecided.

June 18, 2008 - New Hampshire General Election Preference
New Hampshire
Likely voters    June 13-17
McCain    39%
Obama    51%
Undecided    10%
Sample size: 600 likely voters
Sample dates: June 13-17, 2008
Question wording: If the general election were being held today between John McCain, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat, for whom would you vote - McCain or Obama? (names rotated)

Barack Obama leads John McCain 89% to 5% among Democrats (31% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 74% to 10% among Republicans (31% of likely voters). And Obama leads McCain 53% to 38% among independent voters (38% of likely voters).

Obama leads McCain 48% to 47% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women, Obama leads 54% to 32%.

Obama leads McCain 48% to 41% among voters age 18 to 49 (47% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (55% of likely voters),Obama leads McCain 53% to 37%.

43% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election and 25% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election.

In the race for US Senate in New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen leads John Sununu 54% to 40%, with 6% undecided. Shaheen leads Sununu 53% to 38% among independent (undeclared) voters.

In the race for Governor of New Hampshire, John Lynch leads Joseph Kenney 65% to 21%, with 14% undecided. Kenney leads Lynch 46% to 38% among registered Republicans. Lynch leads Kenney 62% to 16% among independent (undeclared) voters.