Author Topic: The housing market isn't what the government wants us to think it is...  (Read 21557 times)

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Offline Dori

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Texas has some really nice homes that are reasonable, but their property taxes and utilities are high.  Guess that's what happens when you don't have a state income tax......they have to get it from somewhere.

“How fortunate for governments that the people     they administer don't think”  Adolph Hitler

Offline debk

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Vesta... the only reason I posted that house, was to show what property taxes are down here on a house like that, and how low our property taxes are in comparison with other parts of the country.

There are a couple of things I like about the house - the location, the kitchen, and the pool. The rest, like you said - is like a hotel and too perfect. There were several other pictures, and not a one of them showed a place to curl up with a book, a blankie, and one's cat or dog.... not my idea of HOME.
Just hand over the chocolate...back away slowly...far away....and you won't get hurt....

Save the Earth... it's the only planet with chocolate.

"My therapist told me the way to achieve true inner peace is to finish what I start. So far I've finished two bags of M&M's and a chocolate cake. I feel better already." – Dave Barry

A balanced diet is chocolate in both hands.

Offline Eupher

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Vesta... the only reason I posted that house, was to show what property taxes are down here on a house like that, and how low our property taxes are in comparison with other parts of the country.

There are a couple of things I like about the house - the location, the kitchen, and the pool. The rest, like you said - is like a hotel and too perfect. There were several other pictures, and not a one of them showed a place to curl up with a book, a blankie, and one's cat or dog.... not my idea of HOME.

I love that kitchen, but I do not like the price tag. And you're right - the property taxes are very reasonable for the cost of the home -- assessed value being much less than the price, of course.

Oh, and the presence of a pool is an automatic deal-breaker for me. I do not want a pool and won't even consider buying a house that has one.
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Offline Evil_Conservative

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We just had about 200 people laid off from my company (mortgage business) last week.  That included our location and our locations in Illinois, Minnesota, and Iowa.  There are rumors of more layoffs to come.  We have been so slow.  We work with the smaller lenders who sell their loans to us to clear their pipeline so they can do more business.  It's just not looking good.  It would be nice if things would pick up again, but I don't see that happening for awhile.  We have a lot of changes coming up for that financial reform in 2014 too.  I'm not sure how that's going to help business.  Guess we will find out soon.

It's interesting to note that we got even slower at work a week or so after the interest rates went up.  Our news update always talks up the sales of homes in this area, but then notes, "and all of these sales are cash investors..."... same old, same old here in Las Vegas.  Things seem good because there is a boom of construction going on again, but I know where that led last time.

Since I am now in the mortgage business, I'll just suck it up and try to get through it like everyone else seems to do who have been in this industry for decades.  As long as I don't get laid off, I'll be happy.
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Offline debk

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New houses are selling here too.

Problem is, people move out of the old house into new construction, and old house doesn't sell... or first time buyers who can afford it, go for new construction.. and all the other houses just sit on the market.
Just hand over the chocolate...back away slowly...far away....and you won't get hurt....

Save the Earth... it's the only planet with chocolate.

"My therapist told me the way to achieve true inner peace is to finish what I start. So far I've finished two bags of M&M's and a chocolate cake. I feel better already." – Dave Barry

A balanced diet is chocolate in both hands.

Offline Gratiot

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I'm confused Deb!  We just visited a time share in the Smokies and they said property sales are going through the roof!   :panic:  :rofl:

Love that area!  We visit every few months.

For what it's worth, the next mountain range over appears to have a different market condition.  Prices are sky high and even bidding wars have broken out.  Granted, I believe that it's only certain neighborhoods.

Offline debk

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I'm confused Deb!  We just visited a time share in the Smokies and they said property sales are going through the roof!   :panic:  :rofl:

Love that area!  We visit every few months.

For what it's worth, the next mountain range over appears to have a different market condition.  Prices are sky high and even bidding wars have broken out.  Granted, I believe that it's only certain neighborhoods.


Kind of depends on where you go up there.

I'm nearest the Sevierville, Pigeon Forge, Gatlinburg area to the east, which is in Sevier County(home of Dolly Parton), or Townsend/Walland in Blount County, to the south.

There have been some beautiful cabins built up in the S/PF/G area, with very high price tags. And a whole bunch of them have gone on the foreclosure market in the last 2-3 yrs....you go in and the lamp shades still have the price tags and plastic wrap on them! They have never been lived in and are totally furnished down to fully equipped kitchens, tv's, pool tables, etc. Only thing missing are sheets, towels and food. When all these first started going into foreclosure, per the lenders instructions - the listing agent had to have the entire place emptied out!! And the trashout person - who was paid by lender to trash it out - also got the profit/cost of disposing the items!!!! Finally the lenders got smart, and started selling the ones that were so brand new, with the furnishings intact.

Also, as of a couple of years ago, any values over $600, trash out person is "supposed" to list and provide a picture to the lender. As to how that's working out, I honestly have no idea. The trashout guy I used to use, got himself listed as an individual vendor to the company I contracted with, so all of his costs and stuff went straight from him to the company. One of the reasons I don't do foreclosures anymore, is because the list agent has to pay all costs out of pocket - trashout, lock change/boarding up, utilities(put in the agent's name, not the lender), yard maintenance, winterization - and, with some lenders (or 3rd party company that deals with the entire foreclosure process from the moment the lender takes the property back on courthouse steps through selling and closing out the property), the agent is not paid until AFTER the closing. I know agents that have outstanding bills to lenders up in the $15-20,000 range!  I can't, nor am I willing! to do that. The worst I was in for was $2000 and it was horrible... and it was all due to the local utility company - in my name!  That was back when the bills were paid directly by the lender (not anymore!) and they were slow to pay. After that, I always found a reason to not turn on the utlities. Mine got that high on one house because there was a water leak in the huge front yard, that was sloped and being absorded before it hit the street...no way to know there was a leak until the bill came. The utility company said "too bad, so sad - pay up!"

Back to the "bidding wars" possibilities....


In the S/PF/G area, these are the stats for the last 180 days. (time frame lenders use)

Currently for Single Family Dwellings - this does not include condo or PUD..

Active lists - 759 ranging from $25,900 to $2,700,00
                  176 days on market - averaged

Solds in last 180 days - 199
                                 210 DoM -averaged

Foreclosures in last 180 days - 45 currently active
                                          73 sold

Last 30 days sold - 24 total
                            7 foreclosures incl in those 24
     

Currently for Condo/PUD

Active - 141
            184 DoM

Sold - 48
         217 DoM

Foreclosure - 17 Active
                   13 Sold

Last 30 Days - 3 Sold
                     0 Foreclosure


In the Townsend/Walland area

Single Family Dwellings...

Active - 211 ranging from $22,000 to $1,994,000
            170 DoM

Sold - 75
         159 DoM

Foreclosure - Active - 8
                  Sold - 12

Last 30 days - 7
                     1 Foreclosure


My mls does have a category for Timeshares, but there is nothing listed in it for the above areas for the last 180 days. That does not mean there aren't any, they just aren't in the Knoxville Area MLS.

Not sure what constitutes "going through the roof", but I have heard other agents here say the same about the market here in town. Compared to how sales have been the last couple of years? Yes, that would be an appropriate statement. However, compared with what is on the market.... there's a couple of years supply out there.

One thing agents have noticed around here, and I'm seeing it in the work I do...is how many cash sales there are lately. I'm talking about houses in excess of $1-500,000! From what I'm hearing from agents, there are a lot of people moving in from up north. MI, PA, NY, NJ, etc. They are selling their homes, taking the cash and moving south, because the cost of living is so much cheaper, and there are jobs here. Not high paying exec ones, but there are a lot in the $9-13/hr. For a person that has retired in their 50's/early 60's, and have retirement money coming in, and want something to do... that's not bad, especially if they can get benefits. Caremark, ADT, JTV, Talbots Catalog, Whirlpool, Marriott, all have big call centers here, and they love older employees because they show up and most don't have to be taught phone etiquette. Surrounding counties are getting new businesses too.

In the last couple of years, the retail market around here has really changed - wonderfully so as far as I'm concerned! Trader Joe's, Publix, Aeropostle, Pottery Barn have all come in the last year. Whole Foods, Urban Outfitters, and Anthropologie are all coming in - all but Whole Foods have started on structures. These are all stores from more "sophisticated" areas than Knoxville. And are an indication of how the area is changing due to influence from "outsiders" (bless them!!!!) Lot of people and companies moving in to East Tn, Nashville, and Chattanooga areas.

Things may have changed in the last few years, but cross over into NC and the prices go up. Particularly the closer you get to Asheville. I'm pretty sure there are a couple of members here that live in that area and they have way more knowledge about their local real estate costs/values than I do. It's been 30 yrs since I lived in Asheville just a few months, and it was expensive then. JohnnyReb in near the mountains on the SC side and he would know the costs over there. NC economy seems to be doing well, too, with large companies headquartering there.


I should be working for the  Chamber of Commerce... :thatsright: :rofl:
Just hand over the chocolate...back away slowly...far away....and you won't get hurt....

Save the Earth... it's the only planet with chocolate.

"My therapist told me the way to achieve true inner peace is to finish what I start. So far I've finished two bags of M&M's and a chocolate cake. I feel better already." – Dave Barry

A balanced diet is chocolate in both hands.

Offline Lacarnut

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I'm confused Deb!  We just visited a time share in the Smokies and they said property sales are going through the roof!   :panic:  :rofl:

Love that area!  We visit every few months.

For what it's worth, the next mountain range over appears to have a different market condition.  Prices are sky high and even bidding wars have broken out.  Granted, I believe that it's only certain neighborhoods.

If it were me I would do a great deal of research before I bought a time share. My ex bought one in the French Quarter. It went belly up and she lost all of her money. Several of Donald Trump's new construction projects have went down the tube.

I assume when you buy a time share, you own a piece of that property. With owning property, maintenance has to be performed such as replacement of AC, new roofs, painting, furniture, appliances. Stuff wears out and somebody has to pay to repair or replace. Property taxes is another expense.

I lucked up when I bought a condo as an investment last year. The building had just been renovated and I got a great property manager who lives in the area and is involved in the maintenance. You will be at the mercy of the HOA though. They can charge $20 to change a light bulb or $50 to unstop a toilet. Assessments are common place for condos.

I think Wyndham owns/sells more time shares than anyone. From what I have read, you are very lucky if you sell it  for what you paid for it. There many time share for sales on the market. Hope this helps.   

Offline Gratiot

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If it were me I would do a great deal of research before I bought a time share. My ex bought one in the French Quarter. It went belly up and she lost all of her money. Several of Donald Trump's new construction projects have went down the tube.

I assume when you buy a time share, you own a piece of that property. With owning property, maintenance has to be performed such as replacement of AC, new roofs, painting, furniture, appliances. Stuff wears out and somebody has to pay to repair or replace. Property taxes is another expense.

I lucked up when I bought a condo as an investment last year. The building had just been renovated and I got a great property manager who lives in the area and is involved in the maintenance. You will be at the mercy of the HOA though. They can charge $20 to change a light bulb or $50 to unstop a toilet. Assessments are common place for condos.

I think Wyndham owns/sells more time shares than anyone. From what I have read, you are very lucky if you sell it  for what you paid for it. There many time share for sales on the market. Hope this helps.

Oh, I had not interest in buying a time share.  With limited exception the whole concept seems a bit ridiculous to me.  Although the RCI benefits alone may be worth considering at times.  Just every now and than, I'll succumb to the entertaining two hours of a horrendous sales pitch - since they typically are offering a couple hundred in cash to sit through it. 

You're absolutely spot on, there are time shares regularly on Ebay for merely a dollar or so just begging for someone to take them off their hands to get out of the annual reoccurring fees.

Offline debk

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Looks like a lot of people are reading this...so I will mention it here...

The other half broker's manufacturing machinery. He has several customers who cannot find people who are qualified, willing to work 5 days out of 7, and can pass a drug test. He's placed ads in the local papers and doesn't even get a response...

One is particular, has more work lined up than he has employees to get the work done. He can't find anyone to even interview. He's paying $22.50/hr, I don't know what the benefits are. His company is northeast of Knoxville, in a small town but pretty town. Cost of living is lower than Knoxville, go outside of town, and it's even lower. (BFF's daughter & SIL just moved up there about 20 miles away, got a 2800 SF house, 1 acre, 4 br, 2.5 bath, 3 c gar, huge kit with granite counters, hardwoods throughout first flr for $200,000.)

Back to the plant owner.... he's looking for machinists in particular (press type stuff - I'm hoping a qualified person understands this description better than me. I know what they make and describe it), also tool & dye. M was up there yesterday to see him, and the owner told him he had his people working all weekend, because they can't get all the work done during the week.  

This is just one customer looking, he has several others that are too. High schools don't teach this type of work down here, there aren't vocational schools except for ITT, and nobody wants to learn...

If you know anyone, who - seriously -wants to move to E TN and does this kind of work, send me a pm and I will get the information to you.



Told M there are a lot of people here, and I have no idea what most do for a living, but it was worth a try....
« Last Edit: July 30, 2013, 02:39:15 PM by debk »
Just hand over the chocolate...back away slowly...far away....and you won't get hurt....

Save the Earth... it's the only planet with chocolate.

"My therapist told me the way to achieve true inner peace is to finish what I start. So far I've finished two bags of M&M's and a chocolate cake. I feel better already." – Dave Barry

A balanced diet is chocolate in both hands.

Offline CG6468

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Quote
High schools don't teach this type of work down here, there aren't vocational schools except for ITT, and nobody wants to learn... 

Government schools don't teach jobs in the skilled labor sector anywhere any more.
Illinois, south of the gun controllers in Chi town

Offline Gratiot

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Government schools don't teach jobs in the skilled labor sector anywhere any more.

Sure they do. 

Offline debk

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Sure they do. 

When my kids were in HS, the HS had Electronics I & II... and I only know that because my son took I as an elective, and they moved him into II the 3rd day of class. He graduated back in 2000.

One of my daughter's classmates, who is the son of a former co-worker, took 2 auto mechanic/ car building type class. They graduated in '97 and he got the first ever full ride scholarship to a well-known school in TX, for auto-mechanic and from there went straight to BMW and a $50K a year job.

I don't know if my kids' HS still has auto mechanics, but I know there is at least one HS in the area that does, because there was a big deal on the news last spring - spring before? - that the kids' car was in some contest for electric/hybrid cars.

I do know that many of the surrounding counties' schools do not have any type of "shop" courses. There just isn't the money for them. Heck, some of them can't even afford to have school buses..  :(
Just hand over the chocolate...back away slowly...far away....and you won't get hurt....

Save the Earth... it's the only planet with chocolate.

"My therapist told me the way to achieve true inner peace is to finish what I start. So far I've finished two bags of M&M's and a chocolate cake. I feel better already." – Dave Barry

A balanced diet is chocolate in both hands.

Offline Gratiot

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When my kids were in HS, the HS had Electronics I & II... and I only know that because my son took I as an elective, and they moved him into II the 3rd day of class. He graduated back in 2000.

One of my daughter's classmates, who is the son of a former co-worker, took 2 auto mechanic/ car building type class. They graduated in '97 and he got the first ever full ride scholarship to a well-known school in TX, for auto-mechanic and from there went straight to BMW and a $50K a year job.

I don't know if my kids' HS still has auto mechanics, but I know there is at least one HS in the area that does, because there was a big deal on the news last spring - spring before? - that the kids' car was in some contest for electric/hybrid cars.

I do know that many of the surrounding counties' schools do not have any type of "shop" courses. There just isn't the money for them. Heck, some of them can't even afford to have school buses..  :(

They've certainly been drastically reduced, but there's still a handful out there providing trade school education.  Between budgets and our nations obsession with university degrees, they certainly were pushed towards the edge of extinction.  However there is a major national push to reinvigorate them, and bring them back. 

To a great extent, I believe more people would be better off with a trade education versus a degree.  Unfortunately, our society still places more emphasis on a liberal arts degree than a formal apprenticeship cumulating in journeyman level technical skill and years of experience.   

Offline CG6468

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Sure they do.

They've been eliminated in all the schools around here and in Chicago.
Illinois, south of the gun controllers in Chi town

Offline Gratiot

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They've been eliminated in all the schools around here and in Chicago.

Many districts have.  It's truly a shame. 

Offline Eupher

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Looks like a lot of people are reading this...so I will mention it here...

The other half broker's manufacturing machinery. He has several customers who cannot find people who are qualified, willing to work 5 days out of 7, and can pass a drug test. He's placed ads in the local papers and doesn't even get a response...

One is particular, has more work lined up than he has employees to get the work done. He can't find anyone to even interview. He's paying $22.50/hr, I don't know what the benefits are. His company is northeast of Knoxville, in a small town but pretty town. Cost of living is lower than Knoxville, go outside of town, and it's even lower. (BFF's daughter & SIL just moved up there about 20 miles away, got a 2800 SF house, 1 acre, 4 br, 2.5 bath, 3 c gar, huge kit with granite counters, hardwoods throughout first flr for $200,000.)

Back to the plant owner.... he's looking for machinists in particular (press type stuff - I'm hoping a qualified person understands this description better than me. I know what they make and describe it), also tool & dye. M was up there yesterday to see him, and the owner told him he had his people working all weekend, because they can't get all the work done during the week.  

This is just one customer looking, he has several others that are too. High schools don't teach this type of work down here, there aren't vocational schools except for ITT, and nobody wants to learn...

If you know anyone, who - seriously -wants to move to E TN and does this kind of work, send me a pm and I will get the information to you.



Told M there are a lot of people here, and I have no idea what most do for a living, but it was worth a try....

The inability for many, many people to pass a drug screen is very much a factor here too. My plant can't make product fast enough; OT is mandatory now; and simply getting someone to hire on and stay on (especially as a temp) is like pulling teeth.

AFAIC, these are the shitheads that expect the free lunch, Obamaphones, and skittle-shitting ponies.
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Offline debk

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Got this email today....  :(

Quote
Foreclosures Filings Rise in July
.....RealtyTrac just reported an increase in foreclosures filed last month, and many agents are reporting that they're seeing more REO inventory coming out in their neighborhoods.  Are you seeing the same in your area?  If so, we'd love to hear about it.  If you haven't noticed a surge yet, you will soon.  And although REO activity has dropped from the peak in 2010, we are still "54 percent above the historical average prior to the housing crisis", according to RealtyTrac. 
Just hand over the chocolate...back away slowly...far away....and you won't get hurt....

Save the Earth... it's the only planet with chocolate.

"My therapist told me the way to achieve true inner peace is to finish what I start. So far I've finished two bags of M&M's and a chocolate cake. I feel better already." – Dave Barry

A balanced diet is chocolate in both hands.

Offline Eupher

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what is "REO"?
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Mouthpiece data provided on request.

Offline debk

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what is "REO"?


Technically - Real Estate Owned.

Real life term - FORECLOSURED by the bank, now owned by bank, lender, Fannie, Freddie, HUD
Just hand over the chocolate...back away slowly...far away....and you won't get hurt....

Save the Earth... it's the only planet with chocolate.

"My therapist told me the way to achieve true inner peace is to finish what I start. So far I've finished two bags of M&M's and a chocolate cake. I feel better already." – Dave Barry

A balanced diet is chocolate in both hands.

Offline obumazombie

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what is "REO"?
The prefix to Speedwagon...

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcKFtyy1FPM[/youtube]

I know that neighborhood !
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Offline USA4ME

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Got this email today....  :(

It's got to be regional. Over the past year I've partnered with a builder and we're buying depressed properties on the cheap here in Asheville, NC, fixing them up, and reselling them. Had realtors in this area right after we started saying they needed spec homes to show, so we've kept them in the $200K range and have had much success.

Getting ready to expand what I'm doing into Central Florida in 2014. Lots of opportunities.

.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2013, 03:42:23 PM by USA4ME »
Because third world peasant labor is a good thing.

Offline zeitgeist

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Technically - Real Estate Owned.

Real life term - FORECLOSURED by the bank, now owned by bank, lender, Fannie, Freddie, HUD

I caught an interesting blurb this morning while walking the dogs or out getting milk while listening to  the local talk show. I wish I had heard the whole thing.  What I did catch went something like this on housing.  (semi quote from memory, a money advisor type talking) I am in the middle of the baby boom at 58 with nine years leading and trailing me.  And what I am seeing in my older clients are lots of them trying to downsize but unable to get rid of their McMansion.  There are not enough younger buyers behind them making enough to cover the McMansion market.  It will be at least ten years before the millennials will be ready to buy these type of properties if ever.  Kids today don't want to be burdened with property maintenance and prefer to rent or live in condos.

I have been looking at foreclosures in the Ft. Myers area as a possible winter retreat. I might have to give serious consideration to not doing an all cash deal at this point if anyone is foolish enough to give a low interest loan.  I would look at it like renting and paying property taxes  to which I would add a life insurance kicker to leave it free and clear to the heirs.
< watch this space for coming distractions >

Offline Lacarnut

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I have been looking at foreclosures in the Ft. Myers area as a possible winter retreat. I might have to give serious consideration to not doing an all cash deal at this point if anyone is foolish enough to give a low interest loan.  I would look at it like renting and paying property taxes  to which I would add a life insurance kicker to leave it free and clear to the heirs.

Go live there for a couple of months. I stayed in Sarasota for 3 weeks & did not like all the inconsiderate Yankee assholes. I bought a beach condo in Perdido Key, FL (just west of Pensacola). Most of the people are from the South or Midwest. A better class of people IMO.

Property tax and insurance is high compared to where I live. Hurricane insurance is a big mess in Florida. Make sure you have it before you buy. Citizens Insurance is backed by the state of FL for hurricane damage and one of the few that sells it. I was canceled right before the season started last year because some of my rentals were less than a week . Talk about a panic mode.

You will be lucky to break even if you use the FT Meyers property in the winter time. That is when all the snowbirds come down and you make the most money because of high rental prices. Summer is considered the off season there. Just the opposite where my condo is located.

Offline zeitgeist

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Go live there for a couple of months. I stayed in Sarasota for 3 weeks & did not like all the inconsiderate Yankee assholes. I bought a beach condo in Perdido Key, FL (just west of Pensacola). Most of the people are from the South or Midwest. A better class of people IMO.

Property tax and insurance is high compared to where I live. Hurricane insurance is a big mess in Florida. Make sure you have it before you buy. Citizens Insurance is backed by the state of FL for hurricane damage and one of the few that sells it. I was canceled right before the season started last year because some of my rentals were less than a week . Talk about a panic mode.

You will be lucky to break even if you use the FT Meyers property in the winter time. That is when all the snowbirds come down and you make the most money because of high rental prices. Summer is considered the off season there. Just the opposite where my condo is located.

I lived in Coral Gables years ago.  We have vacationed in the Captiva / Ft Myers area a few times since.  I have also considered just putting the Motor Home on a winter lot.  Spent a week looking at parks this spring.   The jury is still out on which way to will go.  But there are plenty of foreclosures to look at (with plenty of Chinese dry wall). :o
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