DangerDave921 (1000+ posts) Fri May-30-08 03:55 PM
Original message
November Predictions?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3365157
Personally, I think that very little can be made of polls five months in advance. I can envision McCain winning IF: a) he energizes his base more; and b) whites are reluctant to vote for Obama. I can envision Obama winning IF: a) McCain doesn't inspire the base; and b) a lot of independents move his way.
My biggest concern is race -- how many white folks will be reluctant to vote for a black man?
Oh, we need to sticky this one, and all the other ones between now an Novemeber...
slackmaster (1000+ posts) Fri May-30-08 03:59 PM
Response to Original message
1. I predict that whoever loses will whine endlessly about how the winner "stole" the election
And we have a Winnah!!!TheWatcher (1000+ posts) Sun Jun-01-08 06:10 PM
Response to Reply #1
21. Those of us who "whined" about 2000 and 2004
Were right.
sure you were, Debbie.
Mountainman (1000+ posts) Fri May-30-08 04:05 PM
Response to Original message
4. Just who is McCain's base. I don't think he has one.
The only base I hear he has are some independents and Hillary supporters who would vote for him to spite their noses.
addreamgirl (107 posts) Fri May-30-08 04:17 PM
Response to Original message
7. I am embarrased to say...
that my own mother and sister (Hillary supporters both) are planning to vote for McSame if Obama is the candidate, because they are "afraid of blacks taking over the world" (they bought into the whole MSM uproar over Rev. Wright - hook, line, and sinker). OMG, I can't believe that I'm even related to them! Needless to say, there have been some heated arguments in the family. My sister won't even try to listen to me (to reason), she says, "I don't care what you tell me, I'm not going to change my mind." This, from a mother of five, whose husband is working two jobs to make ends meet. I just don't get it.
And the Democrats call us racist?
LanternWaste (1000+ posts) Fri May-30-08 04:53 PM
Response to Original message
12. Either way, Democrats take back the White House
Barack or Hillary-- either way, Democrats take back the White House. Popular vote will be a wipe out-- 60%-67% of popular vote goes to Dem nominee. Electoral college will be closer, but still Dem's pull out victory with a comfortable 10-15% margin lead.
We'll pick up even more seats in the House. Senate worries me, but not too much. We'll keep our edge there too, but nothing to the degree where we have any real or total control over the calendar.
McCain will turn off the independents or his base-- it's an either-or choice for him. And since he can't win unless he has the support of both, he simply won't win.
Race? Not concerned about it at all vis-a-vis the election. To Progressives and Independents, it's a non-factor. It's only a factor to those whites who wouldn't dream of voting for a Democratic nominee regardless of his/her race.
Suicide predictions with this one? Anybody?
DangerDave921 (1000+ posts) Fri May-30-08 05:15 PM
Response to Reply #12
16. what are you smoking?
60%-67% popular vote??? When in the hell has that taken place in recent history?
I think Obama has some big negatives in a general election. Young, inexperienced on the national level, black, and some baggage of his prior associates. So I would be highly surprised if he had a huge win as you predict.
I also disagree with your assessment on race. I think there are plenty of Dems out there who may vote for a white Dem, but may hesitate to vote for a black Dem. Very hard to predict this number though.
LanternWaste (1000+ posts) Sun Jun-01-08 04:44 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. I'm smoking hope and optimism, chief-- what's your deal...?
"When in the hell has that taken place in recent history?"
History's about to change. McCain has effectively split his base into two factions and he can't get both on his side, therefore only one portion of the base will vote for him while the portion simply sits this election out.
(Don't get too frustrated by my opnions though-- no need to infer that I smoke simply because my predictions are different than yours, otherwise, I suppose you must have to accuse a lot of people of smoking...)
I suppose we disagree-- I don't foresee any Dems discounting a nominee simply due to race or sex, maybe you do.
Did you read the post just above you?
Bozita (1000+ posts) Sun Jun-01-08 06:09 PM
Response to Original message
20. The "October Surprise" backfires. GOP loses 45 House seats, 11 in Senate.
Dutch's predictions:
Denver burns as the moonbats, socialists, and commies try to force Hillery's nomination. Barry's Buddies burn the other half 'a la anytime the black man doesn't get selected as innocent/ cops are found guilty', and th world sees the insanity that is the left. Clinton decalres as independant, huge voter turn out, Shit knows who wins.
