Author Topic: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%  (Read 7940 times)

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Offline Texacon

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #25 on: October 18, 2012, 03:40:46 PM »
http://www.270towin.com/

Obama 201
Romney 191

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground

Obama 237
Romney 191

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

Obama 277
Romney 206

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map

Obama 237
Romney 191

http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php

Obama 281
Romney 257

Ok, there's a few.  Can I pick the one I like?  I'm guessing these places use the polls to come up with their numbers?

If that's the case some of these could be wildly off.

KC
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Offline Texacon

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #26 on: October 18, 2012, 03:44:29 PM »
Interestingly the Intrade map shows Texas as having the highest probability (of the entire country) of going to Romney while the RCP map shows Texas as 'likely' Romney.

KC
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Offline Texacon

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #27 on: October 18, 2012, 04:05:34 PM »
Here's another interesting tidbit;

Poll Data Shows That Obama Is Way Behind

Quote
<snip>

When the numbers for both men are added up, Romney is getting 50.09 –  not very impressive until we consider  Obama’s 41.354.  There are 8.556 points of“undecided” voters. Two separate surveys of how undecided voters eventually vote show that at least 80% go with the challenger.  This gives Romney another 6.8448 for a grand total of 56.9348, and Obama gets another 1.7112 for a total of 43.0652. Under this formula, Obama trails by 8.736 points.

Yesterday’s Gallup poll shows Romney leading 51/45 among likely voters. This means that a guy doing a little research and using  a $10.00 calculator produced an aggregate score that is just 2.8448 off Gallup’s 51/45- well within any standard margin of error.

<snip>

Right?  Wrong?  I have no idea but we'll see on November 6th.

KC
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Offline miskie

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #28 on: October 18, 2012, 04:08:26 PM »
Interestingly the Intrade map shows Texas as having the highest probability (of the entire country) of going to Romney while the RCP map shows Texas as 'likely' Romney.

KC

RCP used to be a fairly reliable source of polling data, but since 2010, Democrat pollsters have been 'DUing' RCP by submitting polls with badly skewed data.

Their hope was to create their own reality where Romney is trailing badly, and as the election draws near, the pollsters wouldn't have to tweak their sampling much to continue the trend, because conservatives will have lost any sort of enthusiasm.

However -

It seems to have backfired. Polling companies who want to remain in business are adjusting their models to be more accurate, and as a side effect of those adjustments, poll after poll are now showing massive movement toward Romney.That movement is creating conservative enthusiasm which is generating even more movement.

Too bad, primitive pollsters.

Offline 98ZJUSMC

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #29 on: October 18, 2012, 04:23:13 PM »
RCP used to be a fairly reliable source of polling data, but since 2010, Democrat pollsters have been 'DUing' RCP by submitting polls with badly skewed data.

(............)

It seems to have backfired. Polling companies who want to remain in business are adjusting their models to be more accurate, and as a side effect of those adjustments, poll after poll are now showing massive movement toward Romney.That movement is creating conservative enthusiasm which is generating even more movement.

Too bad, primitive pollsters.

Big time.  The preference cascade we appear to be seeing is, really, of their own creation.  They will never understand that though.  They will twirl their fingers in the mud and chant: "racissssst".

              

Liberal thinking is a two-legged stool and magical thinking is one of the legs, the other is a combination of self-loating and misanthropy.  To understand it, you would have to be able to sit on that stool while juggling two elephants, an anvil and a fragmentation grenade, sans pin.

"Accuse others of what you do." - Karl Marx

Offline miskie

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #30 on: October 18, 2012, 04:34:30 PM »
Big time.  The preference cascade we appear to be seeing is, really, of their own creation.  They will never understand that though.  They will twirl their fingers in the mud and chant: "racissssst".



It absolutely is - If the primitives and their favorite talking heads hadn't been engaging in this fantasy circle-jerk for the last several months, they probably would have had a better idea about how to effectively derail 'RMoney' - instead, it seems they stepped into their own bear trap.

In other words, it seems the primitives are their own "October Surprise". Too bad...DUmbasses.

Offline Traveshamockery

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #31 on: October 18, 2012, 05:27:42 PM »
It absolutely is - If the primitives and their favorite talking heads hadn't been engaging in this fantasy circle-jerk for the last several months, they probably would have had a better idea about how to effectively derail 'RMoney' - instead, it seems they stepped into their own bear trap.

In other words, it seems the primitives are their own "October Surprise". Too bad...DUmbasses.


Speaking of October surprises, has anyone seen this tease? 

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/18/octsuprise-com-is-just-one-big-rick-roll-say-farkers/

Offline thundley4

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #32 on: October 18, 2012, 05:33:10 PM »

Speaking of October surprises, has anyone seen this tease? 

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/18/octsuprise-com-is-just-one-big-rick-roll-say-farkers/

I posted the link to the October surprise site elsewhere.  I've seen it linked on several sites, but it could be a Rick Roll.

Offline GOBUCKS

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #33 on: October 18, 2012, 05:48:20 PM »
Do you have numbers other than these?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

That one shows 206 to 201 Romney.  The only other one I've seen was sent to me by my lib buddy and it came from Huffpo.  I haven't gone out looking for others either though.
The RCP poll has the muslim leading in eight out of the ten "tossup" states. It counts states like Pennsylvania and Michigan which are realistically moonbat states, as tossups.

Getting from 206 to 270 is going to require a strong continuing shift over the next three weeks. That's maybe doable, but very difficult.

Offline miskie

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #34 on: October 18, 2012, 05:52:14 PM »
I posted the link to the October surprise site elsewhere.  I've seen it linked on several sites, but it could be a Rick Roll.

I assumed it was a prank, and just discarded the notion of the website altogether.

Offline Texacon

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #35 on: October 18, 2012, 06:13:08 PM »
The RCP poll has the muslim leading in eight out of the ten "tossup" states. It counts states like Pennsylvania and Michigan which are realistically moonbat states, as tossups.

Getting from 206 to 270 is going to require a strong continuing shift over the next three weeks. That's maybe doable, but very difficult.

Maybe not;

http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-shows-romney-leading-in-blue-pennsylvania/article/2511153#.UICHI-xPE1o


Poll shows Romney leading in blue Pennsylvania

KC
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Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #36 on: October 18, 2012, 06:58:40 PM »
That's exactly what that is--from the Japan one of a couple of years ago.

So's this one:



Oh, I didn't notice it. I like the one you posted here better. It is more fitting to what is going to happen.

Offline ChuckJ

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #37 on: October 18, 2012, 07:43:43 PM »
Right now, regardless of what any polls say, I've got a good feeling about things. This comes from what I saw in the debates, the talks I've had with everyday working people, and the hatred and fear that the DUmmies are showing toward Romney and his family.

I might be completely wrong, but right now November is looking bright. The one other thing that would really seal the deal for me would be Wee Willie posting an "Obama will win. Bank on it" post.
“Don’t vote for the person who tells you you deserve something. Just don’t do it if it’s something other than life, liberty, or the pursuit of possible happiness. If everyone is telling you you deserve something, vote for the one who is promising you the least. Be suspicious of the man or woman who tell you deserve everything. Because you don’t.” ---Mike Rowe

Offline GOBUCKS

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #38 on: October 18, 2012, 08:14:11 PM »
You may recall that in the closing stages of the 2008 campaign, polls came out showing McCain pulling into a tie or near tie in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

They even persuaded the McCain campaign to spend resources in states they'd written off.

The Kenyan won both by landslide margins.

New Jersey is a standard blue hellhole state, and Pennsylvania is dominated by hordes of savages in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

Offline Dongus

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #39 on: October 18, 2012, 08:46:48 PM »
The polls are horseshit, and have been for a long time.  Has everyone forgotten the midterms already?  Have people forgotten that Carter was going to bury that guy from the chimp movie?  To buy this whole close election thing, you have to believe that Obama has basically the same level of support he had in '08.  You also have to believe that Romney is not doing substantially better than McCain.

Republican party affiliation is at its highest, or close to it, and Dem affiliation is WAY off from what it was.  Take a look at this breakdown.  We have the election, and I believe Obama has been doomed for a long time. 

Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #40 on: October 18, 2012, 08:48:46 PM »
The polls are horseshit, and have been for a long time.  Has everyone forgotten the midterms already?  Have people forgotten that Carter was going to bury that guy from the chimp movie?  To buy this whole close election thing, you have to believe that Obama has basically the same level of support he had in '08.  You also have to believe that Romney is not doing substantially better than McCain.

Republican party affiliation is at its highest, or close to it, and Dem affiliation is WAY off from what it was.  Take a look at this breakdown.  We have the election, and I believe Obama has been doomed for a long time. 

The similarities between now and 1980 are staggering.

Offline ChuckJ

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #41 on: October 18, 2012, 08:55:45 PM »
I also have to say that I think a lot of people have grown tired of the 'if you don't vote for the half-white guy you're a racist' meme.
“Don’t vote for the person who tells you you deserve something. Just don’t do it if it’s something other than life, liberty, or the pursuit of possible happiness. If everyone is telling you you deserve something, vote for the one who is promising you the least. Be suspicious of the man or woman who tell you deserve everything. Because you don’t.” ---Mike Rowe

Offline Dongus

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #42 on: October 18, 2012, 09:11:44 PM »
You may recall that in the closing stages of the 2008 campaign, polls came out showing McCain pulling into a tie or near tie in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

They even persuaded the McCain campaign to spend resources in states they'd written off.

The Kenyan won both by landslide margins.

New Jersey is a standard blue hellhole state, and Pennsylvania is dominated by hordes of savages in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

You may have forgotten what has happened since 2008.  The Obama administration has stomped on the nuts of blue collar voters in Western Pennsylvania.  The metro areas, that turned out a boatload of voters, have been devastated by the administration.  

Black unemployment is massive.  Obama's turn to gay marriage has had a large impact on black religious leaders.  The left tried to blame Mormons for Prop 8, but it was primarily black voters that turned the tide.  The black vote isn't going to move to Romney, but they are not going to turn out like they did.

I firmly believe that Romney would have won even if he was the wooden, detached guy that the media painted him to be.  The debates showed America who Romney is.  America likes Romney, and the illusion of Obama was demolished.  You can't pull the hope and change con twice.  

Offline GOBUCKS

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #43 on: October 18, 2012, 09:28:13 PM »
You may have forgotten what has happened since 2008.  The Obama administration has stomped on the nuts of blue collar voters in Western Pennsylvania.  The metro areas, that turned out a boatload of voters, have been devastated by the administration.  

Black unemployment is massive.  Obama's turn to gay marriage has had a large impact on black religious leaders.  The left tried to blame Mormons for Prop 8, but it was primarily black voters that turned the tide.  The black vote isn't going to move to Romney, but they are not going to turn out like they did.

I firmly believe that Romney would have won even if he was the wooden, detached guy that the media painted him to be.  The debates showed America who Romney is.  America likes Romney, and the illusion of Obama was demolished.  You can't pull the hope and change con twice.  
I hope you're right, because if Romney wins Pennsylvania he'll likely win the election.

Offline Dongus

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #44 on: October 18, 2012, 09:57:14 PM »
I hope you're right, because if Romney wins Pennsylvania he'll likely win the election.

Romney doesn't need to win Pennsylvania, we haven't won it since '88, if I remember correctly.  A Romney win is all but inevitable at this point, overall.  It has been for a long time, and I feel foolish for buying into what I was being sold.  At this point, it is all about making the win as large as possible. 

The dems and the media establishment have overplayed their hand from the beginning of Obama's presidency.  A fact that I missed about the dem convention was that it was branded entirely with the Obama logo.  The dems went all in on Obama, and their surrogates in the media have done it too.  Many more people watched the debates than the establishment expected.  The first debate, especially, was an enormous disaster.  Look at where the blame was laid. 

Offline 98ZJUSMC

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #45 on: October 19, 2012, 02:34:51 AM »

Speaking of October surprises, has anyone seen this tease? 

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/18/octsuprise-com-is-just-one-big-rick-roll-say-farkers/


Omaha Steve devastated.  Blames neckbeard.
              

Liberal thinking is a two-legged stool and magical thinking is one of the legs, the other is a combination of self-loating and misanthropy.  To understand it, you would have to be able to sit on that stool while juggling two elephants, an anvil and a fragmentation grenade, sans pin.

"Accuse others of what you do." - Karl Marx

Offline 98ZJUSMC

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #46 on: October 19, 2012, 02:52:01 AM »
The polls are horseshit, and have been for a long time.  Has everyone forgotten the midterms already?  Have people forgotten that Carter was going to bury that guy from the chimp movie?  To buy this whole close election thing, you have to believe that Obama has basically the same level of support he had in '08.  You also have to believe that Romney is not doing substantially better than McCain.

Republican party affiliation is at its highest, or close to it, and Dem affiliation is WAY off from what it was.  Take a look at this breakdown.  We have the election, and I believe Obama has been doomed for a long time. 

That's a good point.  I first heard that ....hell, over two months ago, and at that time, (R) enthusiasm was something like 16-20% above the (D)Umbsh*ts.  Then, it got hushed up (surprise, surprise).  I feel real good about the trend and I do think we have this.  The Blamestream® Marxists suppressed the actual number for so long, that the wave looks huge. 

Just hate being overconfident.
              

Liberal thinking is a two-legged stool and magical thinking is one of the legs, the other is a combination of self-loating and misanthropy.  To understand it, you would have to be able to sit on that stool while juggling two elephants, an anvil and a fragmentation grenade, sans pin.

"Accuse others of what you do." - Karl Marx

Offline delilahmused

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #47 on: October 19, 2012, 03:02:15 AM »
I hope you're right, because if Romney wins Pennsylvania he'll likely win the election.

Don't be so worried...Romney has momentum. People started paying attention about the time of the first debate, which Romney clearly won. And, they were able to form their opinion of him  based on his own words, deeds and accomplishments instead of the lying negative bullshit the boy king's campaign has been spinning. Look at the size of the viewers in the first debate. People are engaged because they don't like what's going on in their country. It may not be the same intense enthusiasm as the midterms but there's enthusiasm nonetheless.

Pundits, inside the beltway types who rarely get out of their bubble say it's gonna be close but I just don't think so. The crowds at Romney events IN SWING STATES are surging to ridiculously huge amounts (in one small town in Ohio, almost half the town's population showed up) while the First Wookie's husband's have been small, lackluster affairs. Libya and the cluster **** the administration created for themselves, his debate performances (even in this last one which most people thought Romney won on the economy), the bold-faced, obvious lies he actually thinks he can get away with when directly talking to the American people...this is a man who's used to having the media filter protecting him, hard to do that in a debate or campaign speeches...the regime has created their own October surprise.

In many ways, Romney is the perfect candidate for us (and he's actually been talking like a Constitutional conservative) because he's so damned squeaky clean there's no dirt to dig up. We have a very conservative House so holding his feet to the fire will be their first priority. And I don't think Romney will be afraid to use the bully pulpit, a la Reagan and Clinton. So, even if we don't take the senate that creepy rat-faced bastard, Harry Reed won't be able to simply not bring bills to the floor. People realize the huge mistake they made in 2008 and won't repeat it. We ARE a right-of-center country. We forget sometimes because the media, where the majority of citizens get their news, is constantly promoting left wing propaganda. But remember, they're now less trusted than labor unions. 0bama's election and the complete disaster he's been, has been a HUGE wake-up call. Doesn't matter what the media says, America feels the pain he's caused to this country and her people. Bet it's even an early night on November 6th.

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Offline franksolich

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #48 on: October 19, 2012, 03:40:02 AM »
Bet it's even an early night on November 6th.

I'm guessing about 9:00 p.m. central time.

Kentucky for some odd reason always seems to be the first state to report; I wonder why that is, and wish some of these blue states would emulate Kentucky.
apres moi, le deluge

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Offline BlueStateSaint

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Re: GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
« Reply #49 on: October 19, 2012, 07:14:33 AM »
That's a good point.  I first heard that ....hell, over two months ago, and at that time, (R) enthusiasm was something like 16-20% above the (D)Umbsh*ts.  Then, it got hushed up (surprise, surprise).  I feel real good about the trend and I do think we have this.  The Blamestream® Marxists suppressed the actual number for so long, that the wave looks huge. 

Just hate being overconfident.

Yup, it does . . .



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