Intrade is depressing DUmmy DavidDvorkin

[Tess Anderson]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251138602

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 09:51 PM
 DavidDvorkin (11,486 posts)

Intrade is starting to get me down
I used to look at it to be cheered up.

Response to DavidDvorkin (Original post)
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:07 PM
ChimpersMcSmirkers (3,248 posts)
11. Nate and Intrade are all I look at and it's not a pretty picture.

The massive change after a single debate is really astounding. It seems that there are a lot of people who were looking for just about anything to vote against Obama and they found it.

I do think Obama can get a lot of them back with a strong debate performance in the next one. There won't be a landslide and it's going to be tight no matter what. It's going to come down to OH, IA, VA and NV. I live in VA and I'm not very confident he'll carry it.

The good news is that IA is covered well on the ground and OH isn't collapsing as bad as the rest and I think will hold. NV/CO/VA will be critical.

I'm not saying this to get anyone down. I'm saying this because it's the reality and we need to face it to affect it.

Response to DavidDvorkin (Original post)
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:48 PM
 DemocratSinceBirth (44,002 posts)
21. Bush* Sank All The Way To 50% After His First Debate With Kerry

.

but Bush did a lot better in that debate than Obama did in his last week.

[franksolich]

It seems that there are a lot of people who were looking for just about anything to vote against Obama and they found it.

Whooop-whooop-de-do.

Don't the primitives do that all the time, with (R) candidates?

What's the big deal?  That's the way things work.

But really, I doubt if the debate was the single deciding factor for many; I suspect more it was the last straw.

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

Ace, of Ace of Spade HQ blog, calls it the "preference cascade."

Once you decide to vote for a candidate because you agree with them on Issue A you accept their positions on B, C, D etc. and so your partisanship solidifies behind them.

I agree with that theory and build upon it.

People were looking for a reason to vote against Obama but we were told to vote against Obama would be bad. Either the rich will get richer or women will die because birth control costs $18,000 or you are a racist.

All the while the polls held Obama ahead by 7 points. I think--at best--Obama was ahead by 1 during this time with a 10-point pool of undecided Romney leaners.

After the debate people Romney gave people a reason to accept his Issue A and with it B, C, D, etc. and Obama provided plenty of reasons to reject his re-election from 4 years of failed policy to shattering the myth on live TV that he is a brilliant orator and smooth-mover.

I'm convinced Romney now leads with a minimum of 53 with less than 5 points worth of undecides. Those last few undecides are watching to make sure Romney's debate performance was not a one-off event or they will make the final buy-in once the polls consistently show Romney above 51% because then they can hide their Obama rejection amid the surge of support.

[franksolich]

Good point, although I guess I was looking at it the opposite way, in which there were genuine undecideds who over a long period of time accumulated straws, but not enough to break the camel's back, until the first debate happened, and that was it.

There doesn't appear to be many "undecideds" left any more, and so now I'm starting to worry about the Democrat bosses creating "votes" out of thin air, since they now have a "number" they can work with, they know how much they need to "win."

Remember, a single blue city in Ohio can cast more fraudulent (D) votes than all the legitimate (R) votes put together in Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming.  That really bothers me.

[AllosaursRus]

Seriously I don't believe O'bummer has had a chance since Obamacare got shoved down our throats. When 65% of Americans are against a piece of legislation and you pass it anyway, and don't even read it, yer destined to ESAD!

[BattleHymn]

I'm convinced Romney now leads with a minimum of 53 with less than 5 points worth of undecides. Those last few undecides are watching to make sure Romney's debate performance was not a one-off event or they will make the final buy-in once the polls consistently show Romney above 51% because then they can hide their Obama rejection amid the surge of support.

There is a woman at work who voted for Obumbles in 08 who holds this reservation you speak of, SGT.  She's right on the fence, and I think, doesn't want to make the same mistake she made in 08.