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Author Topic: Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win  (Read 2993 times)

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Offline BlueStateSaint

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Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win
« on: October 08, 2012, 04:40:12 AM »
Suck it, Dems!


Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says

October 4, 2012 •


Social Sciences




An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.
 
According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.
 
The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.
 
“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”
 
While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.



Only one state was forecast to change, but you'll have to go to the link to find out which one.  (No states were forecast to change this way.)  It's still going to be close, but less so now.  And if they get November data in there, with the trend . . . ! :-) :fuelfire: :yahoo:

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university
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Offline Mr Mannn

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Re: Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win
« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2012, 06:25:10 AM »
330 = blowout.
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Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win
« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2012, 07:12:44 AM »
obama will still contest it and call out the lawyers.
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Offline Ausonius

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Re: Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win
« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2012, 09:44:15 AM »
I believe this model has been known for its accuracy, so we will see what happens.

No matter how much of a "blow-out" occurs, expect the Dems to scream "There is NO MANDATE!!!"  No matter how far apart the result might be, expect them to insist that Romney and the Republicans will need to "compromise" with them on everything to prevent "an extreme conservative agenda" from taking hold and leading the nation in the wrong direction.

And when leftists want you to compromise, they mean they want you to surrender and give into everything they demand.
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Offline Ptarmigan

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Re: Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win
« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2012, 09:54:53 AM »
Quote from: Kyle Ricky on October 08, 2012, 07:12:44 AM
obama will still contest it and call out the lawyers.

I have a feeling that Obama will challenge it in court like in 2000.
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Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win
« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2012, 09:57:15 AM »
Quote from: Ptarmigan on October 08, 2012, 09:54:53 AM
I have a feeling that Obama will challenge it in court like in 2000.

You know it. It will be Al Gore all over again.
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Offline docstew

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Re: Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win
« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2012, 10:01:58 AM »
Quote from: Ptarmigan on October 08, 2012, 09:54:53 AM
I have a feeling that Obama will challenge it in court like in 2000.

I have that feeling too. I also have the feeling that unless it is within 1% (i.e. 50.5% to 49.5%) in the contested states, any court will summarily dismiss this.
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Offline thundley4

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Re: Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win
« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2012, 01:09:22 PM »
Quote from: Kyle Ricky on October 08, 2012, 09:57:15 AM
You know it. It will be Al Gore all over again.

But with much more violence spurred on by the race-baiting left.
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Offline DefiantSix

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Re: Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win
« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2012, 01:12:19 PM »
Quote from: thundley4 on October 08, 2012, 01:09:22 PM
But with much more violence spurred on by the race-baiting left.

Violent leftists meet the ROE threshold...

 :killemall:

Just sayin'...
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Offline DumbAss Tanker

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Re: Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win
« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2012, 01:27:04 PM »
Quote from: DefiantSix on October 08, 2012, 01:12:19 PM
Violent leftists meet the ROE threshold...

 :killemall:

Just sayin'...

To some, a problem; to others, and opportunity...

 :evil:

Extremely unlikely to be an issue around here, though.
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Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win
« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2012, 03:37:09 PM »
Quote from: thundley4 on October 08, 2012, 01:09:22 PM
But with much more violence spurred on by the race-baiting left.

Violence and Bloodshed? 

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBhkm8zH2yk[/youtube]
« Last Edit: October 08, 2012, 03:43:06 PM by Kyle Ricky »
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Offline AllosaursRus

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Re: Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win
« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2012, 12:14:51 PM »
Quote from: Kyle Ricky on October 08, 2012, 07:12:44 AM
obama will still contest it and call out the lawyers.

Yeah, they won't believe they couldn't cheat enough to pull it off!
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Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win
« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2012, 12:31:13 PM »
Quote from: AllosaursRus on October 09, 2012, 12:14:51 PM
Yeah, they won't believe they couldn't cheat enough to pull it off!

Well, when it is harder to collect dead peoples names and social security numbers, that happens.
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