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Author Topic: PA race is pretty tight  (Read 3678 times)

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Offline Splashdown

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PA race is pretty tight
« on: September 24, 2012, 08:32:33 PM »
It's Obama 47-45

It's a D +6 spread (49-43), with 8% Undecideds.

Some pretty interesting data here, if you're into PA as a battleground state.

Link
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Offline BigTex

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Re: PA race is pretty tight
« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2012, 09:59:52 PM »
I dont see PA as a battleground state. Sure Romney could win it but if he did it would almost certainly mean that he won Ohio, Virginia and Florida and already has the necessary 270
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Offline pandric

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Re: PA race is pretty tight
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2012, 12:18:56 AM »
This poll was "commissioned by the Republican State Committee." http://articles.philly.com/2012-09-21/news/33978421_1_dead-heat-gop-poll-new-poll

The fact that Obama's PA lead in all polls not commissioned by the Republican Party is larger is merely a coincidence.
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Offline Splashdown

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Re: PA race is pretty tight
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2012, 09:01:51 AM »
Quote from: pandric on September 25, 2012, 12:18:56 AM
This poll was "commissioned by the Republican State Committee." http://articles.philly.com/2012-09-21/news/33978421_1_dead-heat-gop-poll-new-poll

The fact that Obama's PA lead in all polls not commissioned by the Republican Party is larger is merely a coincidence.

Can you tell me what the poll got wrong, please? Thanks.
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Let nothing trouble you,
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All things are passing;
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God alone suffices.
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Offline DefiantSix

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Re: PA race is pretty tight
« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2012, 09:11:05 AM »
Quote from: Splashdown on September 25, 2012, 09:01:51 AM
Can you tell me what the poll got wrong, please? Thanks.
You mean other than the poll didn't claim that Ron Paul was expected to be a come from behind, dark horse winnah, and that his victory in Pennsylvania would so upset embolden the rest of the Electoral College that they'd cast their votes for Dr. Nutz to raucous applause (and cops jumping out of bushes in all 50 states to certify The Ronulan Leader's victory).

Other than that?  Nothing. Nothing's wrong with this poll.  :thatsright:



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Offline pandric

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Re: PA race is pretty tight
« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2012, 10:23:21 AM »
Quote from: Splashdown on September 25, 2012, 09:01:51 AM
Can you tell me what the poll got wrong, please? Thanks.

The pollster assumes that 2012 will be like 2004, as if pollsters were supposed to make such assumptions.
http://sprblog.wordpress.com/2012/09/24/why-our-recent-polling-is-accurate-and-shows-a-close-election-for-president-by-james-lee-president-of-spr/
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Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: PA race is pretty tight
« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2012, 10:28:21 AM »
Quote from: Splashdown on September 25, 2012, 09:01:51 AM
Can you tell me what the poll got wrong, please? Thanks.

They didn't over sample Dems.


Quote from: pandric on September 25, 2012, 10:23:21 AM
The pollster assumes that 2012 will be like 2004, as if pollsters were supposed to make such assumptions.
http://sprblog.wordpress.com/2012/09/24/why-our-recent-polling-is-accurate-and-shows-a-close-election-for-president-by-james-lee-president-of-spr/

You mean like the MSM ones are assuming 2012 is going to be like 2008? Gothcha.

Romney has a very good chance of winning Pa. And I hope he does.... We all know that Pandric will be voting for his hero the Big Bad O ...
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Offline Splashdown

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Re: PA race is pretty tight
« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2012, 11:26:30 AM »
Quote from: pandric on September 25, 2012, 10:23:21 AM
The pollster assumes that 2012 will be like 2004, as if pollsters were supposed to make such assumptions.
http://sprblog.wordpress.com/2012/09/24/why-our-recent-polling-is-accurate-and-shows-a-close-election-for-president-by-james-lee-president-of-spr/

What should the assumption, be, o genious of polling data?  :whatever:
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Let nothing trouble you,
Let nothing frighten you. 
All things are passing;
God never changes.
Patience attains all that it strives for.
He who has God lacks nothing:
God alone suffices.
--St. Theresa of Avila



"No crushed ice; no peas." -- Undies

Offline DefiantSix

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Re: PA race is pretty tight
« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2012, 11:32:03 AM »
Quote from: Splashdown on September 25, 2012, 11:26:30 AM
What should the assumption, be, o genious of polling data?  :whatever:

I believe he prefers the term "Super Genius".

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Offline Lacarnut

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Re: PA race is pretty tight
« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2012, 11:38:41 AM »
Romney is going to put an ass whipping on the Magic Negro. He will win Pa and all the battleground states.
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Offline pandric

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Re: PA race is pretty tight
« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2012, 12:30:00 PM »
Quote from: Splashdown on September 25, 2012, 11:26:30 AM
What should the assumption, be, o genious of polling data?  :whatever:

None. No assumptions. Pollsters shouldn't assume things.

On a different note, do you guys think Rasmussen is crazy? His poll released Friday has Obama up by 12% in PA. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president
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Offline Lacarnut

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Re: PA race is pretty tight
« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2012, 08:11:21 PM »
Quote from: pandric on September 25, 2012, 12:30:00 PM
None. No assumptions. Pollsters shouldn't assume things.

On a different note, do you guys think Rasmussen is crazy? His poll released Friday has Obama up by 12% in PA. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president

Not crazy. Just wrong as homemade sin.
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