Vlada Mitty just doing her job

[franksolich]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021308627

Oh my.

nadinbrzezinski (108,697 posts)  Sun Sep 9, 2012, 06:51 PM

CALIFORNIA IS “BATTLEFIELD” STATE, LOCAL CONGRESSIONAL RACE AMONG KEY TARGETED DISTRICTS FOR DEMOCRA

Story and photo by Nadin Abbott

February 12, 2012 (San Diego) – Declaring it time to “regain control of the people’s House from the special interests,” California Democratic Party Chairman hosted a joint press conference with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in San Diego, site of the 2012 California Democratic Convention themed “Battleground California.”

Democrats’ hopes to pick up 25 Congressional seats in the 2012 elections include three seats in California—one of which is the newly redrawn 52nd Congressional District (formerly the 50th district) currently held by Republican Brian Bilbray.

Two well-known Democrats are vying for the nomination: Lori Saldaña, former Assemblywoman and past Associate Dean at Mesa College, and Scott Peters, former San Diego City Council president and Port director.

http://www.eastcountymagazine.org/node/8694

I am reposting this to point something out. The HOUSE has been in play all along. A DU'er watched a FOX nooz channel pannel conclude this today. The news is they did... because it has been, all along.

Now let me tell you something, it is not republican fear mongering, or anything else. IT IS in play. Part of the reason is that we have had some interesting redistricting. CD-52 in Cali is an interesting example, and it happens to be part of my beat. It was far more inland, and far more ... red. It was redistricted to make it a swing district after the 2010 census, by the California Redistricting Commission This also means that both Duncan Hunter's and Susan Davis's districts, one an R, the other a D, were moved and made even more red or blue..

Now what is significant is that indeed FOX news is even considering this possibility this late in the game.

after which more blah-blah-blah from the oblate spheroid

This is where the House will be won, or lost.

The trend has gone from Bilbray keeping his job, to Bilbray going back to surfing. He is known locally as the surfing Congresman.

And like this race, there are many others across the country that are now into the toss up category, or trending blue. So smile...

<---- just doing my job.

nadinbrzezinski (108,697 posts)  Sun Sep 9, 2012, 07:02 PM

2. Most people really do not look at House Races

I get to look at Judges races.

nadinbrzezinski (108,697 posts)  Sun Sep 9, 2012, 07:12 PM

5. The former Speaker of the House and the Democratic Party went so far as to make that prediction [franksolich: that the Democrats would re-take the House in 2012] as far back as February... it is in play. It's been in play all along. And these districts are real toss ups, Start looking at individual districts for redistricted (CD-52 is a good example) or districts represented by tea party members.

Also there is something else, we have a bunch of first termer that have done really nothing for their districts and promised what they have not delivered. I think the Tea Party has crested and more than a few of them will be losing their jobs. The same happened in 1996, a lot of that freshman class lost their seats.

nadinbrzezinski (108,697 posts)  Sun Sep 9, 2012, 07:16 PM

6. My back country become blue?

I will have to ask, what are you smoking? It won't happen anytime soon. In fact, Daryl Issa and Duncan Hunter will keep their jobs... if they do not, I will be so shocked and surprised (with the rest of the pundit class)... not that the candidates are bad, I mean both have real progressives running against them... but Daryl Issa's district is redder than arterial blood... and Duncan benefits from two things. Idiot voters miss the Jr. in his name... and think he is still daddy, who was bad, but got bacon home. And again, it is a red district, not quite arterial red, but.

And some of our State Senators make these two sound reasonable.

In California it is mostly an urban-rural divide, you can almost draw the map for Rs in rural areas, and Ds in urban areas.

nadinbrzezinski (108,697 posts)  Sun Sep 9, 2012, 07:35 PM

9. I threw my material from the convention a while ago, ok recycled it... but that is, iirc, one of the three districts in play. The third one is in Norcal.

nadinbrzezinski (108,697 posts)  Sun Sep 9, 2012, 07:58 PM

15. Well let me try to sumarize the thinking here

You see, I don't need to pay taxes, since the government steals my taxes (They are far more libertarian than Republican). Then comes the evil wild fire, and they are screaming their asses about where are the firefighters and the fire engines (Cedar fire is a good example, we literally could not shit them fast enough, and damn it, it COULD have reached downtown San Diego). Then you try to pass a small tax increase... what YOU NUTS! I EARNED THAT MONEY.

These are the same folks who will NOT go to a Red Cross Shelter even if there is where the help is, no I am not kidding. (And then there are the shelter workers who have no idea what they are dealing with, damn flatlanders, yup, the conflicts are actually funny)

And I used the what are you smoking as a figure of speech. No insult meant.

Of course I get it, where part of the attitude is coming from. If you dial 911, or I dial 911, we are in the city... even with all the cuts, we will have fire or police within 15 minutes on a bad day. When you dial 911 in the back country, the poor lonely County Sheriff will take half an hour, same goes for the fire engine, on a good day, in really isolated areas. So of course, government is crooked and will never save my home, so why should I pay them taxes? It ain't gonna help me. Which also leads to the other common sight in the back country. A medical helicopter.

(I know I know, if we all paid a little more, we could have an actual county FD, with enough rigs to cut down the response but that does not enter the logic, since there is a limit how far you can go)

Why I said, look at the urban rural divide, the maps almost draw themselves. Both Issa and Hunter are in pretty rural districts.

nadinbrzezinski (108,697 posts)  Sun Sep 9, 2012, 08:07 PM

16. And as more and more people move from urban centers to less urban centers, that start to become more urbanized, you will start to see that shift.

San Fran was not a reliable blue city at all times of it's history... which is what people miss.

When you have population shifts, you also start to see a political shift... this is what has happened to Orange County. Is it red? Not anymore, it is trending to purple and the local ruling oligarchy is in a panic over that.

I think the oblate spheroid needs a new "beat," like Ensenada or something.

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

Of course I get it, where part of the attitude is coming from. If you dial 911, or I dial 911, we are in the city... even with all the cuts, we will have fire or police within 15 minutes on a bad day. When you dial 911 in the back country, the poor lonely County Sheriff will take half an hour, same goes for the fire engine, on a good day, in really isolated areas. So of course, government is crooked and will never save my home, so why should I pay them taxes? It ain't gonna help me. Which also leads to the other common sight in the back country. A medical helicopter.

(I know I know, if we all paid a little more, we could have an actual county FD, with enough rigs to cut down the response but that does not enter the logic, since there is a limit how far you can go)

I'm part of the VFD in a very conservative backwoods area.

This scrunt doesn't have a clue about how we perceive government, emergency services or taxes.

[obumazombie]

Put her in Memphis. Aka Memphrica.

[Chris_]

nadinbrzezinski (108,697 posts)  Sun Sep 9, 2012, 07:02 PM

2. Most people really do not look at House Races

I get to look at Judges races.

Nobody looks at those either, nadin.

[GOBUCKS]

nadinbrzezinski (108,697 posts)  Sun Sep 9, 2012, 06:51 PM

<---- just doing my job.

I'll be damned if the crazy bald dwarf isn't copying a franksolich device.

[Zeus]

The Dems need a net gain of 26 seats to gain a majority of the house. Possible but highly unlikely in this political climate.

[Airwolf]

Might as well get political advice from the cat next door. Gnads is like 0 for 10000000000 on her predictions.

[DumbAss Tanker]

Seems a bit late in the game to be having a primary battle, but with Californistan, who knows.

[BlueStateSaint]

Seems a bit late in the game to be having a primary battle, but with Californistan, who knows.

We have a primary soon--I think this Thursday.  I've got to check--there's two Republicans vying for the NYS Senate seat we're in the district of, and the incumbent was the deciding vote for gay marriage in NYS--he sold us out!  (He's also the husband of my teacher in 8th grade at a Catholic school that closed.)  The challenger was my mother's boss when my mother worked for Saratoga County.

Guess who's getting my vote?  And that of my wife?