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Author Topic: Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide  (Read 1947 times)

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Offline Chris_

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Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide
« on: August 02, 2012, 06:05:50 PM »
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Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide

Political scientist Douglas Hibbs looks at two factors when forecasting presidential elections: a) per capita real disposable personal income over the incumbent president’s term, and b) cumulative U.S. military fatalities in overseas conflicts.

And he’s predicting a near-landslide win for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama, with Obama losing by about as big a margin in 2012 as he won back in 2008. Under Hibbs Bread and Peace model, Romney wins 52.5% to Obama’s 47.5%.
James Pethokoukis/AEI

:popcorn:
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Offline EagleKeeper

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Re: Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide
« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2012, 06:16:59 PM »
Funny thing is...

Hibbs is an Obama fan.

But the data is the data.

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The only postwar presidential election results not well explained by the Bread and Peace model are 1996 and 2000.
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Offline DLR Pyro

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Re: Re: Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide
« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2012, 06:20:27 PM »
The racism of this country has no boundaries [\DU]
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Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide
« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2012, 09:34:23 PM »
I just looked and Vegas has Romney at +125 to win, and obama at -175 to win. obama is the hands down favorite.
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Offline RightCoast

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Re: Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide
« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2012, 09:39:16 PM »
Even the NYT is getting nervous and telling the truth:

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/beware-the-jobs-report-of-july/



edit to add I got the off Drudge...I'm not surfing the NYT...
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Offline obumazombie

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Re: Re: Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide
« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2012, 09:40:09 PM »
Quote from: DLR Pyro on August 02, 2012, 06:20:27 PM
The racism of this country has no boundaries [\DU]
Yes, therefore "economics" just joined the hit parade as the next banned word.
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Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide
« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2012, 10:00:17 PM »
Quote from: RightCoast on August 02, 2012, 09:39:16 PM
Even the NYT is getting nervous and telling the truth:

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/beware-the-jobs-report-of-july/



edit to add I got the off Drudge...I'm not surfing the NYT...

He will do like he always does and blame it on Bush.
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