Kentucky, Oregon primaries

[Wretched Excess]

terry mcauliffe was just on fox news basically taunting the life out of BHO.

Example? 

paraphrasing: "quit?  who's talking about quitting?  we are leading in the national popular vote, and we just scored another 30 point win."  then he spun the VP question around as though hillary was considering BHO for veep.

 

[franksolich]

58% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 63%
Obama 33%
Edwards 2%

[franksolich]

61% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 64%
Obama 32%
Edwards 2%

[Lord Undies]

terry mcauliffe was just on fox news basically taunting the life out of BHO.

Example? 

paraphrasing: "quit?  who's talking about quitting?  we are leading in the national popular vote, and we just scored another 30 point win."  then he spun the VP question around as though hillary was considering BHO for veep.

 

I miss so much being tuned into Spongebob all day.

[Wretched Excess]

she's praising kennedy in her victory speech.  in fact, she's almost canonizing him.  pretty big of her, considering he turned on her in MA.

[franksolich]

67% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 64%
Obama 31%
Edwards 2%

[franksolich]

71% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 65%
Obama 31%
Edwards 2%

[franksolich]

73% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 65%
Obama 31%
Edwards 2%

[franksolich]

80% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 65%
Obama 31%
Edwards 2%

I think the fat lady behindstage is clearing her throat, getting ready to sing.

[franksolich]

86% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 65%
Obama 31%
Edwards 2%

I think it's reasonable to be fairly confident Clinton won Kentucky, and so now I'm taking off for a bit, to walk the grounds and inspect the territory; I've been posting standing up.

I'll be back in time to cover the Oregon results, circa 10:00 p.m. central time, 9:00 p.m. mountain time.

[Lord Undies]

86% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 65%
Obama 31%
Edwards 2%

I think it's reasonable to be fairly confident Clinton won Kentucky, and so now I'm taking off for a bit, to walk the grounds and inspect the territory; I've been posting standing up.

I'll be back in time to cover the Oregon results, circa 10:00 p.m. central time, 9:00 p.m. mountain time.

It'll be 5:00 p.m. for you Hawaiian islanders. 

[franksolich]

Actually, now with 90% of Kentucky now in:

Clinton 65%
Obama 30%
Edwards 2%

I think the fat lady's moved to the front stage, and is warming up her throat now.

[Wretched Excess]

obama looks like he is going to carry the two university counties at 51 or 52%, and that's it.

wow.  BHO has been pretty well smoked in KY, OH, WVA, PA, IN, MI (yes, that one is debatable, I know), TN, AR . . .

um, how does BHO think he's going to get elected, again?

[Wretched Excess]

Actually, now with 90% of Kentucky now in:

Clinton 65%
Obama 30%
Edwards 2%

I think the fat lady's moved to the front stage, and is warming up her throat now.

she's singing.  a 35 point blowout.  yikes.  funny how the KY returns have come in so quickly and efficiently, and we sat up waiting for IN until 3 AM.

[franksolich]

What to watch in Oregon returns later this evening:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10473.html

How quickly is the race called? Good news for the East Coast-based TV networks: Oregon, already three hours behind on Pacific Standard Time, isn’t expected to take long to count the mail-in ballots because of their electronic tabulating machines.

The ballot counting begins in the morning and the first unofficial results are released at 8:00 pm local time. They will continue to be updated until all the ballots have been counted. According to the Secretary of State’s office, 727,527 ballots had been returned through Sunday.

Be careful not to read too much into the early tabulations, which are likely to heavily favor Obama because they will come out of Portland and Multnomah County, said Paul Gronke, a Reed College political science professor.

The showing in the strongholds. Heavy voting in Portland and surrounding Multnomah County are a good sign for Obama. He is expected to beat Clinton by a 2-to-1 margin in this metropolitan area “full of young Democrats under the age of 35,” said William Lunch, a political analyst with Oregon State University.

Clinton needs to perform well in southern Oregon and east of the Cascade Mountains – areas that are considered more rural and conservative. Following the strategy followed in other states, that’s where Clinton sent her husband to campaign. Look to Bend’s Deschutes County, Medford’s Jackson County and Pendleton’s Umatilla County, experts said.

“If [Obama is] winning all of those, he’s going to roll up a big margin,” Hibbitts said.

How goes Marion County? The county, which is home to more than 300,000 residents and the state capitol of Salem, has yielded votes within 5 percentage points of the actual statewide primary results in 1988 and 2000 – the last elections with no incumbent president on the ballot. There is a mix of income levels in the area, from upscale liberals to blue collar workers.

Clinton needs to win this county by almost double digits if she has any hope of taking the state, said Lunch.

Follow the demography. Political observers expect women to comprise as much as 58 percent of the statewide vote. That would appear to be a promising sign for Clinton, but polls in Oregon have shown Obama leading among women voters.

West of Portland, Washington County will be a good gauge of suburban female voters. If Clinton has strength in the state other than in rural and small-town areas, she could find it in this county, said Wiener.

To test Obama’s support among blue-collar Democrats, look to heavily industrialized Albany in Linn County about 70 miles south of Portland, Hibbitts said.

Obama should do well in the blue-collar counties “relative to Ohio and Pennsylvania,” Hibbitts said. “I’m not saying he’s going to win those counties, but I think he may win some of them. He may win a significant number. And he won’t get beat 3-to-1 the way he did in Pennsylvania in some of those counties. Here, I think he’ll be very competitive, even in the places that he might lose.”

For a glimpse at the Hispanic vote, look to Woodburn in Marion County, where half of the 20,000 residents are Latino. Good advance work led Obama to eat lunch at a local Mexican restaurant there earlier this month.

To measure college activity, keep an eye on Corvallis in Benton County. Home to Oregon State University and high-tech workers at the major employer, Hewlett Packard, Obama should win the area by a 2-1 margin, Lunch said.

What's the turnout? With the presidential primary and closely contested Democratic primaries for U.S. Senate (the seat held by Republican Gordon Smith), attorney general and secretary of state, experts are predicting a "turnout" of 60 percent or more. In Oregon, which conducts elections by mail, the measure of turnout is actually the percentage of ballots returned.

“I think we’re going to have the highest Democratic primary here that we’ve had probably in 40 years and that was the Kennedy-McCarthy primary in ‘68,” Hibbitts said, “and that was really the last time Oregon actually mattered in presidential politics.”

[Wretched Excess]

more KY exit poll tidbits.  clinton even won the student vote.  I was looking around the county by county vote;  hillary
won pike county on the WVA border 91-7.

Clinton won every age group, all income levels and both genders by large margins. Clinton won 55% of 17-29-year-olds who have regularly voted for Obama, as well as three-fourths of those 60 years and older. Clinton won three-fourths of white voters, who made up about 90% of the electorate. Church attendance had little to do with voter decision-making, as Clinton won two-thirds of church-goers, as well as two-thirds of non-church goers.

Clinton won at least 62% of all who describe themselves as either liberals, moderates or conservatives. Of the 86% who said the recession has affected them, Clinton won two-thirds. Nearly 60% of the electorate lives in rural areas, and Clinton won three-fourths of those voters. And like West Virginia, more than half of voters felt Obama shared the views of his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Clinton won 84% of those voters.

Most voters made up their minds well before either candidate campaigned in the state. More than 70% said they had decided their choice more than a month ago, and 68% of them chose Clinton.

[Wretched Excess]

LOL.  poor johnny edwards.  half of KYs voters thought that edward's endorsement was important,
and half of them voted for hillary. ouch.

Exit Polls: Did the Edwards endorsement make a difference?

(CNN) – Is John Edwards' recent endorsement of Barack Obama important? Forty-five percent of the voters in today's Kentucky's Democratic primary think so. But exit polls show they split their vote: 48 percent voted for Obama, and 47 percent for Clinton.

Fifty-two percent of today's voters in Kentucky say Edwards' endorsement of Obama was not important. They went overwhelmingly for Clinton: 81 to 14 percent.

[franksolich]

Man, it's already 9:15 p.m. central time, 8:15 p.m. mountain time, meaning it's only 7:15 p.m. out in Oregon.

The posting should start about 8:00 p.m. in Oregon, about 45 minutes yet.

Damn, I hope I can stay up to it, but it appears the count's supposed to be pretty fast.

[franksolich]

By the way, I just checked Kentucky, with 100% in, since I'm here anyway.

Clinton 65% 459,145 37 delegates won
Obama 30% 209,771 14 delegates won
Edwards 2% 14,187 0 delegates won

[franksolich]

With the Kentucky results in, the delegate count as of right now, before Oregon:

2,026 delegates needed to win the nomination; both elected delegates and superdelegates.

Obama now has 1,939 delegates (both kinds).

Clinton now has 1,758 delegates (both kinds).

Obama is still short 87, Clinton is still short 268, Clinton having gained on Obama by 23.

It COULD go down to Montana and South Dakota two weeks hence.

[Wretched Excess]

By the way, I just checked Kentucky, with 100% in, since I'm here anyway.

Clinton 65% 459,145 37 delegates won
Obama 30% 209,771 14 delegates won
Edwards 2% 14,187 0 delegates won

that gives him the majority of the pledged delegates, or right at it.

[franksolich]

With the Kentucky results in, the delegate count as of right now, before Oregon:

2,026 delegates needed to win the nomination; both elected delegates and superdelegates.

Obama now has 1,939 delegates (both kinds).

Clinton now has 1,758 delegates (both kinds).

Obama is still short 87, Clinton is still short 268, Clinton having gained on Obama by 23.

It COULD go down to Montana and South Dakota two weeks hence.

Ooops, Oregon has only 58 delegates, so even if Obama were to take them all, he'd still be short.

Unless a whole slew of uncommitted superdelegates suddenly commit, it WILL go down to Montana and South Dakota.

[franksolich]

Well now, here's a different delegate count.

http://news.aol.com/elections/primary/delegates/democrats

Needed to win 2,026

Obama 1,931, 95 short

Clinton 1,759, 267 short

Edwards 10, 2.016 short

[Wretched Excess]

Well now, here's a different delegate count.

http://news.aol.com/elections/primary/delegates/democrats

Needed to win 2,026

Obama 1,931, 95 short

Clinton 1,759, 267 short

Edwards 10, 2.016 short

counting the dem delgates is notoriously imprecise;  some states have the most ridiculous and complicated rules imaginable.  I think most of what we are seeing called "delegate counts" are "best guess estimates".

(the dodgers haven't fallen behind 4 runs straight out of the chute tonight.  that's a relief)

[franksolich]

Okay, Oregon's gearing up to release the numbers.

Stay tuned.