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Author Topic: Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss  (Read 2723 times)

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Offline CG6468

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Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss
« on: May 16, 2012, 10:05:00 AM »
Check out the illustrative map.

Quote
Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss
by Conn Carroll Senior Editorial Writer

Gallup released their annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers yesterday, and the results should have 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue very worried. If President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011 (e.g. Michigan where he is up 48 percent to 44 percent), Obama would lose the 2012 election to the Republican nominee 323 electoral votes to 215.

One can hope...
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Offline Chris_

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Re: Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss
« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2012, 10:08:13 AM »
Burn baby, burn.

Looks like 2004 all over again.
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Offline DumbAss Tanker

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Re: Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss
« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2012, 10:15:35 AM »
Not exactly what this is about (Job or issue approval numbers aren't the same thing as voting preference), but the real important polling on Presidential voting preferences is the State-by-State numbers, not the national numbers, because of the way the Electoral College works.  Obama winning, say, NY or IL by 70-30 is actually terrible for him if the national popular vote is close, because it means losing a lot of other States by 45-55.  None of the talking heads seem to be mentioning this, partly because it is still relatively early, but I also suspect there is substantial data about it already available to Obama's hyper-funded re-election machine, and they don't want to talk about it.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2012, 10:18:01 AM by DumbAss Tanker »
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Online Carl

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Re: Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss
« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2012, 10:26:09 AM »
Quote from: DumbAss Tanker on May 16, 2012, 10:15:35 AM
Not exactly what this is about (Job or issue approval numbers aren't the same thing as voting preference), but the real important polling on Presidential voting preferences is the State-by-State numbers, not the national numbers, because of the way the Electoral College works.  Obama winning, say, NY or IL by 70-30 is actually terrible for him if the national popular vote is close, because it means losing a lot of other States by 45-55.  None of the talking heads seem to be mentioning this, partly because it is still relatively early, but I also suspect there is substantial data about it already available to Obama's hyper-funded re-election machine, and they don't want to talk about it.

The morning of Election day 1980 we all were told the race was neck and neck.
Carter however was in tears in Atlanta the Sunday before as his internals told the story of what was about to happen.
They can`t mess around with rigged polling so O knows exactly where he stands right now and given his actions it isn`t good.
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Offline Gina

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Re: Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss
« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2012, 12:34:32 PM »
 :-)
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Offline obumazombie

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Re: Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss
« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2012, 12:38:39 PM »
Never underestimate the disinformation power of the state run owebumaManiaMedia. In this case, by predicting a landslide, they may be enticing conservatives to not take time out of their busy productive lives to go vote on election day, by planting the thought their vote won't be needed. Don't fall for it. Never trust the state run owebumaManiaMedia !
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Offline Tess Anderson

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Re: Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss
« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2012, 05:42:33 PM »
It's still very early to predict this election, and I question some of the methodology employed here - Gallup is going by 2012 approval ratings, it seems - but that map looks like the current reality of the situation to me. I think Romney could pick off a couple of the other states, Michigan and Wisconsin for starters. Obama's turnout will not be anything close to what it was four years ago.
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Offline RightCoast

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Re: Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss
« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2012, 06:27:52 PM »
The more the polls show barack losing the more fraud there will be.
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Offline thundley4

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Re: Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss
« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2012, 06:43:13 PM »
Quote from: RightCoast on May 16, 2012, 06:27:52 PM
The more the polls show barack losing the more fraud there will be.

It might be better for Romney to remain the underdog and have Obama showing a substantial lead , especially in red and purple states.  That might motivate more conservatives to get out and more Dims to stay home.
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Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss
« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2012, 06:44:58 PM »
Quote from: CG6468 on May 16, 2012, 10:05:00 AM
Check out the illustrative map.

One can hope...

This is great news. The article is from Feb 1, 2012. I hope it turns out to be true.
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Offline Mr Mannn

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Re: Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss
« Reply #10 on: May 17, 2012, 05:52:53 PM »
Quote from: RightCoast on May 16, 2012, 06:27:52 PM
The more the polls show barack losing the more fraud there will be.
I beginning to wonder if the fraud will be enough for the rats.
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