primitives discuss Karl Rove's electoral map

[franksolich]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002681664

Oh my.

xchrom (75,984 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

Obama Is Crushing Romney In Karl Rove's New Electoral Map

http://www.businessinsider.com/karl-rove-electoral-map-obama-looking-pretty-2012-5

Karl Rove is out with another electoral map this week, and it shows an even better-looking picture for Barack Obama than Rove's first map.

after which Karl Rove's map

There are two big differences here for Obama. They come in the swing states of Iowa and Colorado. Colorado is now a lean Obama state, whereas Iowa has moved into the definites. Meanwhile, Romney lost his stranglehold on Montana. So that makes it a complete wash as far as definite states go.

What looks even better for Obama? Arizona is now a toss-up state. This is notable because Democrats have been pushing the idea that they can win the state for the first time since 1996.

All told, with the leans, Obama gained a bit on Romney from the last map: He now leads 290 to 172, up six electoral votes from last time. There are 87 toss-ups, an increase from 82 last time.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/karl-rove-electoral-map-obama-looking-pretty-2012-5#ixzz1ulCbvcGZ

Dream on, primitives.

Remember Karl Rove's particular, uh, skill.

You're being taken for a ride.

longship (11,058 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

1. Wow! The tossups

SC a tossup? TX & GA only lean Romney?

Six months to go but this isn't good for the Mittster.

UTUSN (32,655 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

2. So KKKarl says even if Mittens takes all toss-ups and leaning-to he don't get 270?

I wish but I don't trust KKKarl for ANYthing.

Yeah, if I were a primitive, I wouldn't trust Karl Rove either.

But because franksolich isn't a primitive, franksolich knows exactly what Karl Rove's doing here.

cindyperry2010 (398 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

3. Other maps i. e. huffingtonpost.com have him alreadyhaving beaten him realclearpoltics.com has the president at 253already so this is not that close like the media likes to say but go VOTE

bathroommonkey76 (329 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

18. Huffpost has Obama with 294.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

Baitball Blogger (1,495 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

5. It always sucked to be Karl Rove.

But it must really suck now.

It's really going to suck being a primitive election night.

I'm surprised Karl Rove is actually managing to pull this off, although fooling the primitives is usually like shooting fish in a barrel.

dickthegrouch (1,003 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

7. There's still far too much red in that map for any degree of comfort

How can so many people be so deluded?

There's actually more red there, but Karl Rove isn't showing it.

Karl Rove is a political strategist, not a pollster.

Suck on it, primitives.

n2doc (21,495 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

9. Anyone who thinks SC is a toss up is smokin something funny

And TN, Ky and TX as lean mittens. Ha.

The only way this happens is if the t-baggers and evangelicals stay home.

Well, there's ^^^ a primitive who has at least a vague idea what Karl Rove's doing.

AnnieK401 (88 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

24. I'm from GA and if GA is a toss up I'm a billionaire!

And there's ^^^ another one.

GoCubsGo (9,192 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

31. And, that may very well happen.

They HATE Romney here--enough that many will either stay home or vote third party. We also have a growing Hispanic population. Throw in all the retired military who live here, many of whom are disgusted with the GOP and their war-mongering, and you have a toss-up. Furthermore, we have no Senators or Governor up for re-election, so there is not as much additional incentive to go out and vote. No right-wing dog-whistles on the ballot, either. I have seen at least two or three polls that have the President within 5 points of Romney. It wouldn't surprise me if that difference shrinks further, especially as things like his foreign bank accounts get brought to the forefront. Even die-hard republicans here are recognizing that Romney is far more "not like us" than is Obama.

DontTreadOnMe (1,329 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

12. If the Dems would just concentrate on Texas

If we could turn Texas, the Repugs would not win an election for the next 20 years.

The large cities in Texas lean Dem. Only the rural areas go Repug. And as the latino vote grows in Texas, the repugs are digging their own graves.

I wish the Dems could get more organized in Texas. Go for the Governor and Senate seats with celebrities. Go the Arnold type candidate. Pick a Hollywood Liberal from Texas and run them as a moderate.

One state... and it would be all over. You could say the same thing for Florida, but I think the northern area of that state is as redneck as it comes...

Motown_Johnny (12,699 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

14. They tend to do this early so they can change later and claim "Momentum".

I know we have a huge electoral advantage this time around but Rove's numbers should always be dismissed out of hand. If we start quoting them now then we will be cornered once they change.

Quoting credible sources is always a good idea.

^^^ primitive skeptic; doesn't trust Karl Rove.

enough (5,984 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

15. Never never never trust anything from Rove. It's not hard to see why he would be pushing this right now.

^^^ primitive skeptic; doesn't trust Karl Rove.

JDPriestly (31,055 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

16. This map doesn't look accurate to me.

I think that Obama will win but the victory will be a tough up-hill climb, tougher than this map predicts.

The "handicapped" idiot:

Odin2005 (43,000 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

27. OMG, South Carolina is in play? LANDSLIDE ELECTION!!!

SUCK IT, Pigboy!

bluestateguy (38,092 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

30. Romney only up 5 in Tennessee? Bowlshit.

^^^ another damned primitive skeptic.

iloveObama12 (14 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

36. Karl Rove A Scam Artist...Dude Can't Be Trusted

^^^ a primitive who gets it.

[Ballygrl]

Karl Rove's Electoral Map? did anyone look at that Map? Karl has Texas, Montana, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee and Georgia LEANING REPUBLICAN, LEANING?

[miskie]

I find it hilarious that the one election map they like is produced by Rove.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Karl Rove's Electoral Map? did anyone look at that Map? Karl has Texas, Montana, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee and Georgia LEANING REPUBLICAN, LEANING?

I didn't look.  But I suspect the evil genius is just using different terminology than pollsters to classify each state.  Confusion rules, Master Rove!

[Ballygrl]

Here's the Map:

[Ralph Wiggum]

I find it hilarious that the one election map they like is produced by Rove.

And it is only May 13th.  All these "major" issues being trumpeted now by the DUmmies will have disappeared by Labor Day.

And thanks for the map Bally! 8)

[Carl]

I repeat,for an incumbent President to be down or at best tied in the polls at this point spells disaster for them.
Ignore it if you wish DUmbasses but it is true.
For O to have a chance he needs to be 10-15 points up right now.

[jukin]

LANDSLIDE! 

0bama takes Kalifornia, NY, WDC, and Mass. Illinois is in play. Oregon is in play. Washington is in play. Wisconsin is in play....

[Chris_]

Moe Lane had a pretty concise write-up of the map.  It's worth reading his analysis.

[Ballygrl]

Moe Lane had a pretty concise write-up of the map.  It's worth reading his analysis.

http://moelane.com/2012/05/11/election-2012-the-long-slow-retreat-of-obama-for-america/

Snips from your link:

And this is the map that should be front and center at the Democratic party’s HQ right now, because it should alarm the heck out of them.  With NC flipped (and the NC Democratic party is in freefall right now), and IA, NH, & OH added to FL as the states in play the Democratic margin is down to 6 EVs.  Which is to say, the 89 EV lead that formerly existed has been reduced by over 90% at this point.  This should not fill the Democrats with confidence, given that there’s this map:



This is a representation of the last Cook Political Report snapshot (May 10, 2012) of the race.  Toss-up states are CO, IA, NV, OH, PA, & VA (note that NC & NH are conceded to the GOP).  Now, obviously some of those states will go to the Democrats… but not all of them.  And there aren’t that many combinations to make the numbers come out right.  Here’s the best firewall that I could come up with on the Democrats’ behalf:



…and even then it requires a Hail Mary play: write off OH, FL, & VA (all three of which have gone strongly for the GOP on the state level since 2008); retain CO, NV, & PA (that last one will be a bear, but they could do it).  Also retain IA… and somehow suck two EVs out of NE.  That keeps the EV at 270.  A bare win.  That is the Democratic firewall.  That, to use a pop culture phrase, should be the Democratic party’s zombie plan.

And here’s the thing: I don’t think that the kids overpopulating Central Obama Hive #1 in Chicago really understand this.  I think that they’re still operating under the assumptions of the Baseline map, with the avant-garde feeling all transgressive by embracing the Fallback #1 map and the IT guys in the basement morbidly looking at a variant of Fallback #2.  It has perhaps not occurred to them yet that there are implications to the way that Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia all went severely Republican in 2009 and 2010; or that the Virginia and North Carolina state Democratic parties both decided to shoot themselves in the head, just in time for the 2012 elections*.  If it had sunk in, then their unofficial motto wouldn’t be “Be confident, but take nothing for granted.” It’d be “Hold the line! Make the [expletive deleted] fight for every inch.”

[USA4ME]

Rove was on Hannity last week and explained his map.  Many of the states he had as undecided and/or leaning are states where the last polls were taken months ago.  I remember him specifically mentioning SC as being one of the states where the last poll taken was 6 months ago.  Now that Romney will be the nominee, the newer polls should provide a better picture.

.

[BlueStateSaint]

Rove was on Hannity last week and explained his map.  Many of the states he had as undecided and/or leaning are states where the last polls were taken months ago.  I remember him specifically mentioning SC as being one of the states where the last poll taken was 6 months ago.  Now that Romney will be the nominee, the newer polls should provide a better picture.

.

Not only that, but the attitude that ABO really is the better choice for the country, is starting to take hold.  The one wild card in all of this is the Israelis.  The last time they had a unity governement was early 1967.  What happened on June 5th of that year?  Hint--it was over by June 10th, and Israeli borders were drastically expanded afterwards.  Gas will skyrocket.  It's still up almost 100% from when the Obamessiah's reign started.  Lauren Simonetti of FBN was just on Fox & Friends First saying that the summer jobs outlook is bleak.  No more jobs means that the only that the unemployment rate is going up is if the Obamessiah's people lie on the reports.  The true rate, if the rate were being measured the same as it was in, say, 1980, will be damn near 12% by the fall.  Obama is done--it's just gonna be slow.

[Rebel]

Rove was on Hannity last week and explained his map.  Many of the states he had as undecided and/or leaning are states where the last polls were taken months ago.  I remember him specifically mentioning SC as being one of the states where the last poll taken was 6 months ago.  Now that Romney will be the nominee, the newer polls should provide a better picture.

.

If SC goes for Obama, I might just have to find a new country to move to because it'll mean the people have officially lost their f'n minds.

[NHSparky]

I can tell you right now, that there's NO WAY IN HELL NH will go for Obama.  Zero.  Zip.  None.  Not even if every polling place on the I-93/I-95 corridors are packed with Massholes.

[franksolich]

If SC goes for Obama.....

It's more likely franksolich will sprout two ears, than that happening.

I know Karl Rove's playing a prank on the Democrats, liberals, and primitives here, and decent and civilized people are not to take this seriously.  Rove is a political strategist, not a pollster.

I'm not going to bother making specific predictions myself, other than stating this:

Barring some enormous act of God, Romney is going to run ahead of McCain-Palin in 2008 in all fifty states.  I can't think of one state, one single state, where Romney is going to get fewer votes than our last nominee did.

Barring some enormous act of God, the Magic One is not going to garner more votes this year than he did in 2008, in any of the fifty states.  Well, I'll hedge a little bit and say he might get more votes in one or two places, but no more than that.

So.....Romney does better than McCain in 2008, and the Magic One does worse in 2012 than he did in 2008.  The only questions are "how much better" and "how much worse".

[67 Rover]

I can tell you right now, that there's NO WAY IN HELL NH will go for Obama.  Zero.  Zip.  None.  Not even if every polling place on the I-93/I-95 corridors are packed with Massholes.

What are you basing your prediction on?  My frequent trips up to Grafton county do not instill confidence in me as I see a lot of obama stickers.

[Doubleplusungood]

DontTreadOnMe (1,329 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

12. If the Dems would just concentrate on Texas

If we could turn Texas, the Repugs would not win an election for the next 20 years.

The large cities in Texas lean Dem. Only the rural areas go Repug. And as the latino vote grows in Texas, the repugs are digging their own graves.

I wish the Dems could get more organized in Texas. Go for the Governor and Senate seats with celebrities. Go the Arnold type candidate. Pick a Hollywood Liberal from Texas and run them as a moderate.

One state... and it would be all over. You could say the same thing for Florida, but I think the northern area of that state is as redneck as it comes...

Dream on shit head. Texas isn't going Dem. No way.

[Rebel]

DontTreadOnMe (1,329 posts)

The large cities in Texas lean Dem. Only the rural areas go Repug. And as the latino vote grows in Texas, the repugs are digging their own graves.

Wow, just look at all that condescension. "Those beaners better vote Dim, and all vote the same way". Individualism is lost on these f'n retards. 

[Doubleplusungood]

Wow, just look at all that condescension. "Those beaners better vote Dim, and all vote the same way". Individualism is lost on these f'n retards. 

Not very many illegals get away with voting here so that strategy is not in play. The legal citizen hispanics are not a monolithic voting block like blacks are. The three big cities are the only place you find any concentration of libs in this state.

[NHSparky]

What are you basing your prediction on?  My frequent trips up to Grafton county do not instill confidence in me as I see a lot of obama stickers.

http://www.wmur.com/election-results/25564507/detail.html

13 of the Dems 103 seats came from Grafton County.  10 of the GOP's 297 seats came from there.  

It's like saying you're worried about California going to the GOP because someone from San Diego won an Assembly seat.  Lebanon and Haverhill are overwhelmingly moonbat havens, and the VT moonbat influx is undeniable.

Now go to Nashua, Manchester, and basically any town outside P-town North, Durham, or Keene.  I've seen more anti-O stickers than those favoring him by far.

The state polls are very in flux, but if people were so keen on Obama, why is it the House and Senate are looking to keep their veto-proof (or nearly so) majorities, as well as take the governship for the first time in a decade, and Guinta will still likely win by double-digits, more so if that idiot Che-Pelosi wins the Democrat primary.

Given the fact that people are just as pissed in 2012 as they were in 2010, with all of the above, and they'd STILL vote for Obama?  Highly friggin unlikely.

About the only serious challenge I see this year is a rematch of Charlie RINO Bass against Annie the Abortionist Kuster.  When she only loses by one point in 2010, it tells you that people really DID hold their noses when they voted for Bass.

[67 Rover]

http://www.wmur.com/election-results/25564507/detail.html

13 of the Dems 103 seats came from Grafton County.  10 of the GOP's 297 seats came from there.  

It's like saying you're worried about California going to the GOP because someone from San Diego won an Assembly seat.  Lebanon and Haverhill are overwhelmingly moonbat havens, and the VT moonbat influx is undeniable.

Now go to Nashua, Manchester, and basically any town outside P-town North, Durham, or Keene.  I've seen more anti-O stickers than those favoring him by far.

The state polls are very in flux, but if people were so keen on Obama, why is it the House and Senate are looking to keep their veto-proof (or nearly so) majorities, as well as take the governship for the first time in a decade, and Guinta will still likely win by double-digits, more so if that idiot Che-Pelosi wins the Democrat primary.

Given the fact that people are just as pissed in 2012 as they were in 2010, with all of the above, and they'd STILL vote for Obama?  Highly friggin unlikely.

About the only serious challenge I see this year is a rematch of Charlie RINO Bass against Annie the Abortionist Kuster.  When she only loses by one point in 2010, it tells you that people really DID hold their noses when they voted for Bass.

My vote in Mass would be wasted, I am seriously considering "moving" to my cabin in N.H. at least there my vote may count not to mention the cool bonus of "Live Free or Die" license plates.

[DumbAss Tanker]

Oh my.

Dream on, primitives.

Remember Karl Rove's particular, uh, skill.

You're being taken for a ride.

Yes.

 

[DumbAss Tanker]

Here's the Map:

Don't really think MO is a toss-up, Obama did not carry it 2008 and unemployment has not significantly improved here during his whole term.  We have a Dem governor (Nice guy, actually) who therefore has nothing positive to offer he can identify with Obama, and one Dem Senator up for re-election who is widely regarded by the GOP and Conservatives as both a raving Obamite and as crooked as a dog's hind leg over her conduct in previous state offices, the hated and despised Claire McCaskill.

[Ballygrl]

As someone else mentioned, the polling data is outdated and it's pretty damn stupid to be using 6 month old polling data, unless that's Karls way of uniting the Republicans with the few kooks on the far right who won't vote for Romney.

[BlueStateSaint]

Okay . . . where's SR and his avatar (full-size, if you could, SR!)?