Author Topic: Results & Wrap Up : WV and NEB Primaries; Special Cong. Runoff Election in MS  (Read 40233 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline rich_t

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7942
  • Reputation: +386/-429
  • TANSTAAFL
59% of Nebraska now in.

Clinton 47%
Obama 49%
Gravel 4%

Wasn't Clinton projected to win Nebraska?
"The American people will never knowingly adopt socialism. But, under the name of 'liberalism,' they will adopt every fragment of the socialist program, until one day America will be a socialist nation, without knowing how it happened." --Norman Thomas, 1944

Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour

what are the raw vote numbers in nebraska, frank?

Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour
59% of Nebraska now in.

Clinton 47%
Obama 49%
Gravel 4%

Wasn't Clinton projected to win Nebraska?

obama won the nebraska caucuses back in february;  this is a non-binding primary.  frank explained it far better than I could in the first few posts of the thread.


Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58722
  • Reputation: +3102/-173
Right now in Nebraska with 64% of the vote in:

Quote
Democrat    President         Hillary Clinton    33194    47%
Democrat    President         Mike Gravel    2791    4%
Democrat    President         Barack Obama    35037    49%
apres moi, le deluge

Milo Yiannopoulos "It has been obvious since 2016 that Trump carries an anointing of some kind. My American friends, are you so blind to reason, and deaf to Heaven? Can he do all this, and cannot get a crown? This man is your King. Coronate him, and watch every devil shriek, and every demon howl."

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58722
  • Reputation: +3102/-173
Wasn't Clinton projected to win Nebraska?

Obama won the Nebraska caucuses in February 68-32%.

It was generally considered Clinton was toast in Nebraska.

Nobody even bothered to poll.

My theory is, if Clinton wins more than 32% of the popular vote here, then that's damned well indicative that caucuses do not accurately reflect popular opinion.
apres moi, le deluge

Milo Yiannopoulos "It has been obvious since 2016 that Trump carries an anointing of some kind. My American friends, are you so blind to reason, and deaf to Heaven? Can he do all this, and cannot get a crown? This man is your King. Coronate him, and watch every devil shriek, and every demon howl."

Offline rich_t

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7942
  • Reputation: +386/-429
  • TANSTAAFL
Ok...  Thanks.  I must have misheard about Clinton being expected to win there. 
"The American people will never knowingly adopt socialism. But, under the name of 'liberalism,' they will adopt every fragment of the socialist program, until one day America will be a socialist nation, without knowing how it happened." --Norman Thomas, 1944

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58722
  • Reputation: +3102/-173
71% of Nebraska now in.

The new percentages and numbers:

Quote
Democrat    President         Hillary Clinton    38458    48%
Democrat    President         Mike Gravel    3126    4%
Democrat    President         Barack Obama    38306    48%
apres moi, le deluge

Milo Yiannopoulos "It has been obvious since 2016 that Trump carries an anointing of some kind. My American friends, are you so blind to reason, and deaf to Heaven? Can he do all this, and cannot get a crown? This man is your King. Coronate him, and watch every devil shriek, and every demon howl."

Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour
Right now in Nebraska with 64% of the vote in:

Quote
Democrat    President         Hillary Clinton    33194    47%
Democrat    President         Mike Gravel    2791    4%
Democrat    President         Barack Obama    35037    49%

interesting.  here are the february caucus numbers:

Quote
Obama     26,126          68%
Clinton     12,445           32% 

more than just being unrepresentative of the preferences of the electorate, caucuses could even be said to be anti-democratic.  they obviously somehow exclude huge numbers of people that are perfectly content to express their preferences and exercise their franchise in a primary.



Offline Miss Mia

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8052
  • Reputation: +353/-137
59% of Nebraska now in.

Clinton 47%
Obama 49%
Gravel 4%

Wasn't Clinton projected to win Nebraska?

obama won the nebraska caucuses back in february;  this is a non-binding primary.  frank explained it far better than I could in the first few posts of the thread.



I agree about caucus not showing the true reflect of the electorate.  It does tend to be the more activist part of the party at them. 

I do think there are some pros to them though.  In Texas there's both the primary and caucus (for democrats).  I participated in both for the first time this year.  For the primary I voted early as usual.  But it was really neat to get together with a bunch of neighbors for the caucus.  Even more interesting was the democratic senate district conventions.  The caucus part, at least in Texas, does more for party building.  I'll tell you more after I go to the state convention next month.
Stink Eye
"Bloodninja: It doesn't get any more serious than a Rhinocerus about to charge your ass."

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58722
  • Reputation: +3102/-173
Other presidential numbers in Nebraska, with 71% in now:

Quote
Republican    President         John McCain    97800    87%
Republican    President         Ron Paul    14394    13%

Quote
Nebraska    President         Don J. Grundmann    33    50%
Nebraska    President         Bryan Malatesta    13    20%
Nebraska    President         Diane Beall Templin    20    30%

Quote
Green    President         Jesse Johnson    12    19%
Green    President         Cynthia McKinney    36    58%
Green    President         Kent Mesplay    7    11%
Green    President         Kat Swift    7    11%

It looks like Cynthia McKinney wrapped it up, at least here.
apres moi, le deluge

Milo Yiannopoulos "It has been obvious since 2016 that Trump carries an anointing of some kind. My American friends, are you so blind to reason, and deaf to Heaven? Can he do all this, and cannot get a crown? This man is your King. Coronate him, and watch every devil shriek, and every demon howl."

Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour
Wasn't Clinton projected to win Nebraska?

Obama won the Nebraska caucuses in February 68-32%.

It was generally considered Clinton was toast in Nebraska.

Nobody even bothered to poll.

My theory is, if Clinton wins more than 32% of the popular vote here, then that's damned well indicative that caucuses do not accurately reflect popular opinion.

it's even more staggering than that.  it looks like caucuses can easily select the wrong candidate.  forget hanging chads.  this is a small(er) group of people enforcing their will on an entire state when selecting a party nominee for president of the united states.

I don't think it gets any more wrong than that.




Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58722
  • Reputation: +3102/-173
Nebraska now with 74% in.

With due apologies to West Virginia, that seems a foregone conclusion, and it's late, so I'll quit covering West Virginia.

Quote
Democrat    President         Hillary Clinton    39415    48%
Democrat    President         Mike Gravel    3235    4%
Democrat    President         Barack Obama    39259    48%
apres moi, le deluge

Milo Yiannopoulos "It has been obvious since 2016 that Trump carries an anointing of some kind. My American friends, are you so blind to reason, and deaf to Heaven? Can he do all this, and cannot get a crown? This man is your King. Coronate him, and watch every devil shriek, and every demon howl."

Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour
59% of Nebraska now in.

Clinton 47%
Obama 49%
Gravel 4%

Wasn't Clinton projected to win Nebraska?

obama won the nebraska caucuses back in february;  this is a non-binding primary.  frank explained it far better than I could in the first few posts of the thread.



I agree about caucus not showing the true reflect of the electorate.  It does tend to be the more activist part of the party at them. 

I do think there are some pros to them though.  In Texas there's both the primary and caucus (for democrats).  I participated in both for the first time this year.  For the primary I voted early as usual.  But it was really neat to get together with a bunch of neighbors for the caucus.  Even more interesting was the democratic senate district conventions.  The caucus part, at least in Texas, does more for party building.  I'll tell you more after I go to the state convention next month.

I hear you, but texas is actually a supporting argument to mine and frank's thesis;  the texas primary results disagreed (rather widely, as I recall) from the caucus results.  why is that? and which one is wrong?  and is the wrong one actually tainted somehow?

there is a huge problem with the way many states pick their candidates if what seems to be going on is actually going on.

and personally, I think party building should be specifically excluded from the process of picking a candidate for president for the same reason that "electioneering" (for lack of a better word) is prohibited from polling places.  those places that you express your preference should be completely free of outside and undue influence, or there is no way to be sure that it is really your preference.




Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour
Nebraska now with 74% in.

With due apologies to West Virginia, that seems a foregone conclusion, and it's late, so I'll quit covering West Virginia.

Quote
Democrat    President         Hillary Clinton    39415    48%
Democrat    President         Mike Gravel    3235    4%
Democrat    President         Barack Obama    39259    48%

nebraska is more interesting anyway.

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58722
  • Reputation: +3102/-173
Okay, with 75% in, these are the numbers in Nebraska.

All that's left now are places such as where I live, or where dutch508 was born and raised, all the isolated towns and cities of the Sandhills.

I don't know anybody who voted for Obama around here, so it's reasonably safe to conclude Clinton carried the Nebraska Democrats, and that the choice made during the caucuses in February was not the popular choice.

Quote
Republican    President         John McCain    105056    87%
Republican    President         Ron Paul    15415    13%
Democrat    President         Hillary Clinton    40286    48%
Democrat    President         Mike Gravel    3343    4%
Democrat    President         Barack Obama    39989    48%
Nebraska    President         Don J. Grundmann    35    51%
Nebraska    President         Bryan Malatesta    13    19%
Nebraska    President         Diane Beall Templin    21    30%
Green    President         Jesse Johnson    12    19%
Green    President         Cynthia McKinney    36    58%
Green    President         Kent Mesplay    7    11%
Green    President         Kat Swift    7    11%
apres moi, le deluge

Milo Yiannopoulos "It has been obvious since 2016 that Trump carries an anointing of some kind. My American friends, are you so blind to reason, and deaf to Heaven? Can he do all this, and cannot get a crown? This man is your King. Coronate him, and watch every devil shriek, and every demon howl."

Offline Miss Mia

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8052
  • Reputation: +353/-137
I hear you, but texas is actually a supporting argument to mine and frank's thesis;  the texas primary results disagreed (rather widely, as I recall) from the caucus results.  why is that, and which one is wrong, and is the wrong one actually tainted somehow.

there is a huge problem with the way many states pick their candidates if what seems to be going on is actually going on.

and personally, I think party building should be specifically excluded from the process of picking a candidate for president for the same reason that "electioneering" (for lack of a better word) is prohibited from polling places.  those places that you express your preference should be completely free of outside and undue influence, or there is no way to be sure that it is really your preference.





I definitely agree that primaries are much more accurate in reflecting the will of the most voters.  Caucuses just don't get as much participation.

While I like part of what a caucus does, actual involvement in picking a candidate, I dislike that there's not as much participation.

The democratic party needs to take a good look at caucuses.  I wouldn't be that upset if they were done away with.

On a similar note, I'm also for rotating primaries and not having Iowa and New Hampshire the first to go.  I'm not for a national primary day, but a set number of meets that divide up everyone.  For instance, maybe north east, south, central, south west, midwest and west and space them a couple of weeks or three weeks apart.  And while I'm thinking up my new system, why not have it start until March or April and wrap up just a month or so before the national conventions. 
Stink Eye
"Bloodninja: It doesn't get any more serious than a Rhinocerus about to charge your ass."

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58722
  • Reputation: +3102/-173
Ooops, an unexpected shift, with 80% now in.

Quote
Democrat    President         Hillary Clinton    40801    46%
Democrat    President         Mike Gravel    3577    4%
Democrat    President         Barack Obama    43810    50%

apres moi, le deluge

Milo Yiannopoulos "It has been obvious since 2016 that Trump carries an anointing of some kind. My American friends, are you so blind to reason, and deaf to Heaven? Can he do all this, and cannot get a crown? This man is your King. Coronate him, and watch every devil shriek, and every demon howl."

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58722
  • Reputation: +3102/-173
There's something called the "Delaware Plan" for state primaries.

The 13 smallest states would hold their primary in March.

Then the next 13 smallest states would hold their primary in April.

Then the next 12 smallest states would hold their primary in May.

And finally the 12 largest states would hold their primary in June.

The "beauty" of it is, if one wishes long campaigns and competitive races, nothing is finally determined until after the 12 largest states have voted, they of course being much larger than the smaller 38 states all put together.

That would be good, but I'm sort of queasy about Nebraska voting with Vermont, in a March primary.
apres moi, le deluge

Milo Yiannopoulos "It has been obvious since 2016 that Trump carries an anointing of some kind. My American friends, are you so blind to reason, and deaf to Heaven? Can he do all this, and cannot get a crown? This man is your King. Coronate him, and watch every devil shriek, and every demon howl."

Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour
Ooops, an unexpected shift, with 80% now in.

Quote
Democrat    President         Hillary Clinton    40801    46%
Democrat    President         Mike Gravel    3577    4%
Democrat    President         Barack Obama    43810    50%



StL county must have come in. :-)

Offline Miss Mia

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8052
  • Reputation: +353/-137
There's something called the "Delaware Plan" for state primaries.

The 13 smallest states would hold their primary in March.

Then the next 13 smallest states would hold their primary in April.

Then the next 12 smallest states would hold their primary in May.

And finally the 12 largest states would hold their primary in June.

The "beauty" of it is, if one wishes long campaigns and competitive races, nothing is finally determined until after the 12 largest states have voted, they of course being much larger than the smaller 38 states all put together.

That would be good, but I'm sort of queasy about Nebraska voting with Vermont, in a March primary.

I think I might have read about that plan.  I think that the states should be grouped together.  1. It would make travel on the candidates easier. 2. It would cost less so candidates without a big name could still get out there and campaign more.  I really dislike how money becomes such a factor with candidates.  There are good candidates but they can't ever get their fundraising going in order to actually get out there more and hence get more money. 


Didn't the polls have Hillery ahead by 14 points?  This was supposed to be one of her slam dunks, right?

<singing>for ($hillery=86; $hillery==0; $hillery--){ Sha na na na. ha na na na, say hey hey, good bye!}</singing

In what state?  In W. Virginia she was ahead by 30+ pts.
Stink Eye
"Bloodninja: It doesn't get any more serious than a Rhinocerus about to charge your ass."

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58722
  • Reputation: +3102/-173
Nebraska, with 81% now in.

Quote
Democrat    President         Hillary Clinton    41326    46%
Democrat    President         Mike Gravel    3641    4%
Democrat    President         Barack Obama    44254    50%
apres moi, le deluge

Milo Yiannopoulos "It has been obvious since 2016 that Trump carries an anointing of some kind. My American friends, are you so blind to reason, and deaf to Heaven? Can he do all this, and cannot get a crown? This man is your King. Coronate him, and watch every devil shriek, and every demon howl."

Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour
Didn't the polls have Hillery ahead by 14 points?  This was supposed to be one of her slam dunks, right?

<singing>for ($hillery=86; $hillery==0; $hillery--){ Sha na na na. ha na na na, say hey hey, good bye!}</singing

I didn't see a poll for nebraska;  it was an afterthought since the caucuses were in feb.


Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour
There's something called the "Delaware Plan" for state primaries.

The 13 smallest states would hold their primary in March.

Then the next 13 smallest states would hold their primary in April.

Then the next 12 smallest states would hold their primary in May.

And finally the 12 largest states would hold their primary in June.

The "beauty" of it is, if one wishes long campaigns and competitive races, nothing is finally determined until after the 12 largest states have voted, they of course being much larger than the smaller 38 states all put together.

That would be good, but I'm sort of queasy about Nebraska voting with Vermont, in a March primary.

I don't have a huge problem with iowa going first.  someplace ultimately has to go first; it may as well be iowa.  I just think caucuses are insane.


Offline Baruch Menachem

  • In a handbasket, heading to a warm destination
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1019
  • Reputation: +37/-18
  • do the best you can with what you can
I forgot about Nebraska today.   So I thought Frank was referring to WVA.  My bad.
An optimist sees the glass as half full, a pessimist sees the glass as half empty, an engineer sees that there is twice the glass required to contain the beer

My name is Obamandias, King of Kings, 
  Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!


Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour
Nebraska, with 81% now in.

Quote
Democrat    President         Hillary Clinton    41326    46%
Democrat    President         Mike Gravel    3641    4%
Democrat    President         Barack Obama    44254    50%

it's an even more critical problem that cries out for an immediate solution if the caucus actually picks the wrong candidate.  it's already established that they are utterly unrepresentative of the preference of the electorate;  that's a fatal enough flaw.