Results & Wrap Up : WV and NEB Primaries; Special Cong. Runoff Election in MS

[Wretched Excess]

the latest poll has hillary up 36 points in WV.  Rassmussen has her up 29, but that is a
week old.  I'm not sure I am buying the 36 points.

[franksolich]

The Democrats in Nebraska have a presidential primary, too, but it doesn't count for anything.

The Republican primary in Nebraska is for delegates to the national convention.

What happened was that when Dean Howard or Harold Dean or whatever his name is was trying to tell states when they should hold their primaries, Nebraska Democrats decided to hold caucuses in early February, rather than using the May primary to determine delegates.

For the record, there's been much "buyer's remorse" about it; most Nebraska Democrats now seem to think caucuses are the worst thing since the invention of leisure suits.

There are no significant primary races in Nebraska today.

But what to watch for is this: Obama won the Nebraska caucuses 68-32% in Nebraska.

If the margin in the popular vote (which doesn't count for anything anyway) varies much from that 68-32%, it's more proof that caucuses are driven by pushers and shovers and "activists," and many times going against the will of the people.

[Wretched Excess]

and an interesting special election in mississippi tonight to fill the congressional seat
vacated when roger wicker was selected to fill the senate seat of trent lott when
he retired.

I am sure the GOP wil be declared dead if the dems flip this seat.  and they may.

DOWN THE BALLOT: MISSISSIPPI'S SPECIAL

DOWN THE BALLOT: Mississippi’s special
The New York Times, previewing today’s congressional run-off in Mississippi between Travis Childers (D) and Greg Davis (R), notes how the Republicans have tied Childers to Obama -- in what some see as playing the race card. “Hoping to hang on to a Congressional seat in a tight special election here on Tuesday, Republicans in this mostly white and very conservative district are trying to make the vote more a referendum on Senator Barack Obama than on the candidates themselves.”

“In advertisements and speeches, Republicans have repeatedly associated Travis Childers, the white Democrat threatening to take the seat away from the Republican Party, with Mr. Obama. Republicans say Mr. Obama’s liberal values are out of place in the district. But for many Democratic veterans here, the tactic is a throwback to the old and unwelcome politics of race, a standby in Mississippi campaigning. Former Gov. William Winter, a Democrat, expressed shock at the current campaign. ‘I am appalled that this blatant appeal to racial prejudice is still being employed,’ said Mr. Winter, who lost the 1967 governor’s race after his segregationist opponent circulated handbills showing blacks listening to one of his speeches. Mr. Winter went on to win the governor’s office 12 years later.”

(Again, be careful not to read too much into the results since neither candidate's political party is listed on today's ballot.)

The Wall Street Journal has some stats on the spending in this race. "The National Republican Congressional Committee has spent more than $1.3 million in advertising and direct mail. Mr. Davis also has benefited from funding from outside Republican groups. Freedom's Watch, a group working to elect Republicans to the House, has spent an additional $550,000 on advertising. The NRCC has sent staff to Mississippi to help boost Republican voter turnout, which will be critical to Mr. Davis's chances. Republicans have drawn on a long roster to campaign for Mr. Davis, including Gov. Haley Barbour, Sen. Thad Cochran, Mr. Lott, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Vice President Dick Cheney, who appeared Monday at an event with Mr. Davis."

Per NBC’s Mike Viqueira, House Republicans are besieged these days by internal criticism and concern over the possibility of electoral disaster come November. Today’s special election in a Mississippi district that has been solidly Republican for years has many of them on edge, as a Democrat could very well take the seat. It would be the third loss in a row of a seat previously held by a Republican. So Republican leaders are answering the threat with a new message intended to carry them forward to election in November. They call it "the change you deserve", and this week they will start to talk about affecting this change on issues like health care ("greater choice and control"), the economy (cutting wasteful spending, balancing the budget), energy, and security.

linky

[Wretched Excess]

The Democrats in Nebraska have a presidential primary, too, but it doesn't count for anything.

The Republican primary in Nebraska is for delegates to the national convention.

What happened was that when Dean Howard or Harold Dean or whatever his name is was trying to tell states when they should hold their primaries, Nebraska Democrats decided to hold caucuses in early February, rather than using the May primary to determine delegates.

For the record, there's been much "buyer's remorse" about it; most Nebraska Democrats now seem to think caucuses are the worst thing since the invention of leisure suits.

There are no significant primary races in Nebraska today.

But what to watch for is this: Obama won the Nebraska caucuses 68-32% in Nebraska.

If the margin in the popular vote (which doesn't count for anything anyway) varies much from that 68-32%, it's more proof that caucuses are driven by pushers and shovers and "activists," and many times going against the will of the people.

caucuses are a silly, anachronistic, and ultimately inaccurate means of selecting a presidential candidate.  they are indeed subject to manipulation, peer pressure, and just plain bullying.  I will be interested to see if the non-binding primary yields the same results as the caucus.  is there anything down-ballot that will draw dems to the polls?

[franksolich]

caucuses are a silly, anachronistic, and ultimately inaccurate means of selecting a presidential candidate.  they are indeed subject to manipulation, peer pressure, and just plain bullying.  I will be interested to see if the non-binding primary yields the same results as the caucus.  is there anything down-ballot that will draw dems to the polls?

Actually, there's more to draw Democrats to the polls in Nebraska today, than Republicans.

It's for the Democrat nomination to run against the inevitable Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, Michael Johanns.

It pits a businessman who just switched parties three months ago (after Johanns got into the race for the Republican nomination), and it seemed likely the Democrats weren't going to come up with a credible candidate to oppose the Republican Johanns, and a last-minute filer, a Democrat who ran unsuccessfully for the third district (the western two-thirds of Nebraska) open seat in 2006.

The real Democrat, the late-filer, is quite a charmer, but he's not inevitably the Democrat candidate.

So that's going to pull Nebraska Democrats to the polls today.

[Wretched Excess]

caucuses are a silly, anachronistic, and ultimately inaccurate means of selecting a presidential candidate.  they are indeed subject to manipulation, peer pressure, and just plain bullying.  I will be interested to see if the non-binding primary yields the same results as the caucus.  is there anything down-ballot that will draw dems to the polls?

Actually, there's more to draw Democrats to the polls in Nebraska today, than Republicans.

It's for the Democrat nomination to run against the inevitable Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, Michael Johanns.

It pits a businessman who just switched parties three months ago (after Johanns got into the race for the Republican nomination), and it seemed likely the Democrats weren't going to come up with a credible candidate to oppose the Republican Johanns, and a last-minute filer, a Democrat who ran unsuccessfully for the third district (the western two-thirds of Nebraska) open seat in 2006.

The real Democrat, the late-filer, is quite a charmer, but he's not inevitably the Democrat candidate.

So that's going to pull Nebraska Democrats to the polls today.

then it will be very interesting to see the discrepancy between the caucus results and the primary results.

[franksolich]

I wish I could quote polls and stuff from Nebraska, but we have only one major, and one semi-major newspaper in the whole state (seven days a week), and since polls cost a lot of money, they tend to poll only tight races, high-profile races, and general election races.

This is the first time in a long time I haven't seen any polls in the Omaha World-Herald or the Lincoln Journal-Star; there may have been some, and I missed them.  But usually I don't miss those sorts of things.

Polls conducted by the radio and television stations tend to be "man on the street" deals, not scientific.

Polls paid for by individual candidates tend to be really bad, at considerable variance with the final results.

I think it's part of the Nebraska character; it's nobody's business.

Those times I've been polled, I've always lied.

And it seems a significant proportion of my fellow Nebraskans do too.

[Wretched Excess]

polls in WVA close at 7:30 local time.

[Wretched Excess]

just saw the WVA exits.  she is taking 70% or more of women, white people, low income voters, and uneducimated peepul.

she's going to slaughter him.  too bad it's over.

[Wretched Excess]

and 65% of seniors.  this is going to be a massive blowout.

[Miss Mia]

I'm at work this evening.  WE do please keep me informed. 

BTW, I predict a Hillary win by at least 30%.

[franksolich]

Polls in West Virginia apparently just closed.

Polls in Nebraska close at 8:00 p.m. central time, 7:00 p.m. mountain time.

[franksolich]

With zero percent in, ABC declares Clinton the winner in West Virginia.

[Miss Mia]

I ventured over to DU.  They're saying the exit polls look like a 2-1 win for Clinton.

They said Bill Clinton predicted an 80-20 win for Hillary today, so anything less is a loss.  LOL

Again, I say Hillary by 30%

[franksolich]

While waiting for West Virginia, these were the presidential choices in Nebraska today:

Republican    President         John McCain    0    ---
Republican    President         Ron Paul    0    ---
Democrat    President         Hillary Clinton    0    ---
Democrat    President         Mike Gravel    0    ---
Democrat    President         Barack Obama    0    ---
Nebraska    President         Don J. Grundmann    0    ---
Nebraska    President         Bryan Malatesta    0    ---
Nebraska    President         Diane Beall Templin    0    ---
Green    President         Jesse Johnson    0    ---
Green    President         Cynthia McKinney    0    ---
Green    President         Kent Mesplay    0    ---
Green    President         Kat Swift

[Chris_]

I heard on the morning show here that Mike Gravel is going up against Bob Barr for the Libertarian ticket.  That can't be right.

[Miss Mia]

While waiting for West Virginia, these were the presidential choices in Nebraska today:

Republican    President         John McCain    0    ---
Republican    President         Ron Paul    0    ---
Democrat    President         Hillary Clinton    0    ---
Democrat    President         Mike Gravel    0    ---
Democrat    President         Barack Obama    0    ---
Nebraska    President         Don J. Grundmann    0    ---
Nebraska    President         Bryan Malatesta    0    ---
Nebraska    President         Diane Beall Templin    0    ---
Green    President         Jesse Johnson    0    ---
Green    President         Cynthia McKinney    0    ---
Green    President         Kent Mesplay    0    ---
Green    President         Kat Swift

 

[Wretched Excess]

the exits finished at 68-32.  *poof*

[Wretched Excess]

I heard on the morning show here that Mike Gravel is going up against Bob Barr for the Libertarian ticket.  That can't be right.

that's exactly right.  politics makes strange bedfellows.

[Miss Mia]

I heard on the morning show here that Mike Gravel is going up against Bob Barr for the Libertarian ticket.  That can't be right.

that's exactly right.  politics makes strange bedfellows.

Interesting.

Maybe they'll team up and be a "unity" ticket.  LOL

[franksolich]

Polls in West Virginia have been closed for fifteen minutes.

Nothing to report.

Maybe they count ballots there by abacii?

[Chris_]

Maybe they'll go dump rocks into a pond somewhere. 

[Wretched Excess]

Polls in West Virginia have been closed for fifteen minutes.

Nothing to report.

Maybe they count ballots there by abacii?

the most current numbers on the WV sec. of state elections returns page are from 2006.

[franksolich]

I'm using ABC for West Virginia.

If someone knows a better site, please illuminate.

ABC's results for the Republican primary in West Virginia in February apparently weren't updated.

So maybe I'm at a lemon of a site.

[Wretched Excess]

Baroque Obama's flag pin in his lapel on his single WVA appearance must not have convinced too many west virginians