Over/Under Odds: Obama orders US forces to intercept Israeli attack on Iran

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

As far as I'm concerned the war with Iran isn't if, but when. It's as inevitable as tomorrow's sunrise. Hell, it may even come with tomorrow's sunrise.

Israel will most likely strike first as they must.

If Israel attacks, Iran will retaliate with a massive pan-regional tantrum especially since its proxy, Syria, is all but crippled by internal strife. That greatly hinders its conventional response, i.e. Hezbollah.

So Iran will lob a Whitman's Sampler of missiles across the Persian Gulf. Shipping and minor Gulf Arab states will be the likely candidates. No doubt any attack by Israel will be assumed to have occurred with the tacit if not explicit permission of the US. US naval forces and forces in Afghanistan will be subject to attacks from conventional missiles. Once that happens a larger war will commence...unless the president levels an overwhelming response.

Obama knows this.

He doesn't want a larger war, especially when half of his appeal to his base rests on his "ending" the Iraq war and drawing down in A-stan.

If Obama doesn't want a larger war his best shot is to prevent the attack by the Israelis.

Israel is pretty much already deadset on not telling us if and when they will attack. While they did not share with us prior to their attack on Saddam's Osirak reactor in 1985 they have all the more reason not to trust the WH.

So...

...suppose we detect multiple Israeli aircraft and missiles streaking towards Iran?

What are the odds that Obama would order US carrier aircraft and other airborne assets to intercept the Israeli attack so that he can claim he kept us from another, larger, regional war?

Sure, many here would be furious but this is the man that coordinates with Media Matters where "Israel-firsters" are coonsistently attacked. He doesn't think like us in terms of allies but in some grand theoretical scheme that says if the US would only do more to assuage the grievances of others there would be more peace in the world. The protest of his detractors will never figure into his calculations.

Would he, at a minimum, try to warn the Iranians even if it meant sacrificing highly classified sources and methods to convince the eternally suspicious mullahs of his sincerity?

[JohnnyReb]

I ain't betting on nothing until I figure out wheather Obama is a shiite or a sunni.

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

I ain't betting on nothing until I figure out wheather Obama is a shiite or a sunni.

This whole "Obama is a Manchurian Muslim!" meme is misplaced...and I mean that seriously.

Narcissists have no god except themselves.

Look at his 2+ decade preacher. As repugnant as Wright may be he is no Muslim. Every sermon out of Wright's Pulpit of Wrong is meant to inflate the ego of the gathered. "You're oppressed! You have no responsibility to care for yourself, it's them evil crackas that have hurt you! You're good! They're evil!"

That's not the Islamic 5 pillars. Yes, Islam is evil in its own right but no self-respecting Muslim would sit through 22 years of Muhammed-free preaching.

Even Obama's own attendance wasn't a matter of faith but self-serving political calculation.

Obama NOT a Muslim. He is a narcissist.

[DumbAss Tanker]

That ain't gonna happen.  However, he WILL tell the Russians it's on the way if he knows about it, and the Russians will tell the Iranians.  Also the Mid-East is more densely populated than most Americans think, it is very near impossible for a strike at that distance to arrive with complete surprise even if Obozo doesn't interfere at all.

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

That ain't gonna happen...

If I told you a year ago he would go on a military excursion after being pulled in by Arabs and Europeans with no discernible pay-off for the US and without so much as consulting congress while paying for it with re-appropriated appropriations in a war that would all but guarantee al Qaeda gained a national base of operations, what would you have said?

If your response would be anything short of, "Snuggs, you're on crack!" you're lying. Such a COA would be beyond the pale for any US president and breathtakingly belligerent--all things considered--for someone like Obama.

Or so we thought.

[DumbAss Tanker]

If your response would be anything short of, "Snuggs, you're on crack!" you're lying. Such a COA would be beyond the pale for any US president and breathtakingly belligerent--all things considered--for someone like Obama.

Wrongo-bongo, Flop-top.  Look back at the Kosovo War, in the previous Democrat regime.  Same thing, same approach.  I would have thought it unlikely despite the fact that the Dems thought the war against Serbia was an unqualified success (Despite producing an unpredictable Balkan political cluster**** and engendering the undying hatred of the Serbs for us, as well as loss of an F117 over enemy territory with the wreckage delivered directly to Russian for study).  But I certainly wouldn't have said it was impossible. 

Historically, the Democrat regimes are far more inclined to foreign military adventurism than Republican ones.

[Airwolf]

I wouldn't put anything past Nobama. If he thinks it would get him re elected he's likely to do it.

[thundley4]

This whole "Obama is a Manchurian Muslim!" meme is misplaced...and I mean that seriously.
*snip*

Obama NOT a Muslim. He is a narcissist.

That may be true, but there is no doubt in my mind that he favors America's enemies and dislikes our traditional allies.

[BlueStateSaint]

Hence, the Israelis saying that they're not going to warn us that an attack is on the way, before said attack actually takes place.  I tend to think that any attack will involve IDF special operations troops/Mossad operators, primarily, and maybe sub-launched missiles.  The question one has to ask is this:  Would the Israelis pickle off a nuclear-armed cruise missile to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities?  I think they just might, and might have to.

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

Would the Israelis pickle off a nuclear-armed cruise missile to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities?  I think they just might, and might have to.

I think that might invite retaliatory strikes from Russia and I think Bibi knows this.

[Eupher]

There's no question that Barry has flat-out warned Israel not to go weapons-hot on Iran.

And then GEN Dempsey opens his yap on all kinds of fronts over the past several days, downplaying the Iranians as being "rational" and denying that he counseled the Israeli's on going weapons-hot.

Dempsey is no fool and he's not some guy that just fell off a turnip truck. In short, he's Barry's stooge and proxy statesman -- where the **** is Hillary in all of this?

I'd say no way in hell is Barry going to do anything overt against Iran or anybody else should Israel decide to preemptively strike Iran. If anything, he'll ensure that the Strait of Hormuz remains unfettered but he'll order the US Navy and Air Force to do nothing offensively. And I'd sincerely doubt that he'd overtly permit the Navy to defend themselves either, much like the ambiguous ROE he issued when Captain Richard Phillips was rescued by SEALs back in 2009. Barry issued a loophole and the SEALs took advantage of it by sniping and taking out the 3 pirates.

Barry is his own worst enemy.

[dutch508]

Why do you think that the joooooooooooos aren't gonna tell obumbler the raid is on?

[DumbAss Tanker]

And then GEN Dempsey opens his yap on all kinds of fronts over the past several days, downplaying the Iranians as being "rational" and denying that he counseled the Israeli's on going weapons-hot.

Dempsey is no fool and he's not some guy that just fell off a turnip truck. In short, he's Barry's stooge and proxy statesman -- where the **** is Hillary in all of this?

It's rather peculiar, according to his bio he went from a BG star going into a Division CG billet in 2003 to four-star billet in at CENTCOM in 2008 briefly then on to another at TRADOC the same year, where he stuck for awhile.  He was obviously someone's picked man, but whose?  There is a tremendous amount of politics, the actual partisan kind, tied up with GO promotions due to the Senate's tight control over their promotions and appointments to positions.  There seems to be something odd here.

[rich_t]

Why do you think that the joooooooooooos aren't gonna tell obumbler the raid is on?

Cuz they done said so.

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

It's rather peculiar...

TRADOC?!?!?!

I already hate 'im!

[obumazombie]

Quote from SGT Snuggle Bunny,
"Obama knows this."
His incompetence, inexperience, and ineptitude lead me to doubt this assertion about owebuma. I would much rather begin from the vantage that owebuma knows nothing.

[Zeus]

It's about an 800 mile flight from Israel to Iran so any attack would hardly be a surprise. Be that what it may Israel has a bunch of Bunker busters it bought from the USA to dispose of somewhere.

[LC EFA]

Obama won't do squat beyond lip service to aid or hinder either side until he's sure where the world sympathies lie.

[obumazombie]

Obama won't do squat beyond lip service to aid or hinder either side until he's sure where the world sympathies lie.

Yes, it's his lack of leadership style. Leading from behind. Barack the magic negro inaction figure. By Mattel.

[NHSparky]

I will say this--we have a couple of carrier battle groups in the Gulf.  What if Obama gave the order to ACTIVELY stop such an attack?

Not beyond the realm of possibility.

[CG6468]

I will say this--we have a couple of carrier battle groups in the Gulf.  What if Obama gave the order to ACTIVELY stop such an attack?

Not beyond the realm of possibility.

I don't think he'd do that; it would show the rest of the world how weak we are regarding the muzzies.

Then again, there is NO figuring out what this clown can, might and will do.

[JohnnyReb]

I don't think he'd do that; it would show the rest of the world how weak we are regarding the muzzies.

Then again, there is NO figuring out what this clown can, might and will do.

He has no idea until Moochelle and Bill Ayers tell him. ...and if Moochelle is on the rag....

[BlueStateSaint]

I will say this--we have a couple of carrier battle groups in the Gulf.  What if Obama gave the order to ACTIVELY stop such an attack?

Not beyond the realm of possibility.

While this is true, I tend to believe that CG is correct in his assessment.  The Muslim world would see just how weak a leader the Obamessiah is, and react accordingly.

[Eupher]

I will say this--we have a couple of carrier battle groups in the Gulf.  What if Obama gave the order to ACTIVELY stop such an attack?

Not beyond the realm of possibility.

That doesn't fit into Barry's MO. He's spent his entire political life avoiding decision-making and ensuring that where he absolutely, positively has to make a decision, there's plausible deniability and/or somebody else takes the fall if the decision turns out poorly.

He is not going to suddenly change his MO -- especially when the stakes are so high.

Nope, he'll see how the political winds are blowing by sticking up the proverbial wet finger, and go from there. No way in hell is he going to stop the Israeli's from doing what they're going to do. Hell hath no fury like a Jooooo on a mission. 

[CG6468]

He has no idea until Moochelle and Bill Ayers tell him. ...and if Moochelle is on the rag....

How can you tell? She looks like she's always on or in the rag.