Oregon will be blue. And, unfortunately, I live in a swing state. These people were dumb enough to re-elect Reid, so I'm sure NV will go blue too. I really hope not though.
Of course, the election's ten months away yet, and anything can happen.
But as of right now, today, February 1, 2012, I can see the Magic One winning only 187 electoral votes, and am reasonably confident the eventual (R) candidate can carry Nevada.
Of course, this would all be moot in the absence of corrupt political machines that create votes out of thin air.
But alas, we have to deal with that too.