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Offline franksolich

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primitives make electoral college predictions
« on: January 29, 2012, 01:54:30 PM »
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002238491

Oh my.

We know how well the primitives did in 2004 and 2008.

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RandySF (3,494 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

Electoral College Prediction for as of January, 2012.

Every month I will be making electoral college predictions based on where I think the presidential race is going and on the assumption Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee. As of the end of January, 2012, I predict that Barack Obama would win with 317 electoral votes to 221 for Mittens. I think that Romney will take IN, NC, NH and FL away from Obama. However, Obama would pick up AZ.

http://theelectoralvote.com/

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mdmc (28,352 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

1. keep em coming

Hard to tell without a veep in place for mitt

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RZM (4,303 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

2. I put it at 303-235 for Obama

Republicans get Florida, North Carolina, and Indiana. Arizona and New Hampshire vote the same way they did last time.

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dogknob (399 posts) Profile Journal Send DU Mail Ignore

3. It would be interesting to see projections that take the campaign's voter-suppression laws...

... into account.

Like GOP will win "this" state because x-number of people will be prevented from voting.

I don't have the research chops for this, but it would be great if someone did.

It'd be even more interesting to see projections that take into consideration machine-created votes.
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Offline BattleHymn

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Re: primitives make electoral college predictions
« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2012, 02:54:58 PM »
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Every month I will be making electoral college predictions based on where I think the presidential race is going and on the assumption Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee. As of the end of January, 2012, I predict that Barack Obama would win with 317 electoral votes to 221 for Mittens. I think that Romney will take IN, NC, NH and FL away from Obama. However, Obama would pick up AZ.


Maybe next month you will use a website that actually uses the correct number of electoral votes for each state, rather than the previous decade's distribution.   ::)
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Offline franksolich

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Re: primitives make electoral college predictions
« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2012, 02:56:16 PM »
Quote from: BattleHymn on January 29, 2012, 02:54:58 PM

Maybe next month you will use a website that actually uses the correct number of electoral votes for each state, rather than the previous decade's distribution.   ::)

Why would the primitive think the Magic One would "pick up" Arizona?  I don't think so.

Nor Colorado either.  And probably not Iowa.
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Offline BattleHymn

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Re: primitives make electoral college predictions
« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2012, 03:12:44 PM »
Quote from: franksolich on January 29, 2012, 02:56:16 PM
Why would the primitive think the Magic One would "pick up" Arizona?  I don't think so.

Nor Colorado either.  And probably not Iowa.

He's dreaming.

Arizona has only voted for the democrat in a presidential election two times since 1948- the second time was in 1996 when they had a momentary lapse of reason, and voted for Slick Willy.  The Arizona Legislature has a two-thirds majority in favor of the republicans, both house and senate.  We all know who their current governor is.     
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Offline Chris_

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Re: primitives make electoral college predictions
« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2012, 03:13:25 PM »
Quote from: franksolich on January 29, 2012, 02:56:16 PM
Why would the primitive think the Magic One would "pick up" Arizona?  I don't think so.

Nor Colorado either.  And probably not Iowa.
In 2008, Obama won the following states with less than 200,000 votes:

Colorado
District of Columbia*
Iowa
Maine
Rhode Island
New Mexico
Vermont
Nevada
Delaware
New Hampshire
Indiana
North Carolina

Also, 200,000 was the margin he lost the following states. 

Missouri
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Alaska
Wyoming
West Virginia
Nebraska
Idaho
Mississippi
South Carolina
Arizona
Kansas

I suppose you could consider them "in play", but I know there's more to it than that.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2012, 03:16:32 PM by chris_ »
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Offline JohnnyReb

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Re: primitives make electoral college predictions
« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2012, 03:26:15 PM »
The last electoral college exam grades were dismal...this time we're grading on a curve. :-)
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Offline GOBUCKS

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Re: primitives make electoral college predictions
« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2012, 03:39:34 PM »
Lots of DUmmy predictions:

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As of the end of January, 2012, I predict that Barack Obama would win with 317 electoral votes to 221 for Mittens.


And another:
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Bill Swerski: Now, gentlemen, let me ask you this: What if Da Bears were all 14 inches tall, you know, about so high? Now, what's your score of today's game?

Carl Wollarski: Against Da Giants?

Bill Swerski: Yes, give 'em a handicap.

Carl Wollarski: Bears 18, Giants 10. And that would finally be a good game.

Pat Arnold: Yeah, it would be a good game. Mini Bears 24, Giants 14.

Todd O'Conner: What about Ditka? Would he be mini, too?

Bill Swerski: No, he would be full-grown.

Todd O'Conner: Oh, then, uh.. Mini Bears 31, Giants 7.

Carl Wollarski: Oh, hold on. Then I change mine, too. I thought it was Mini Ditka.

Bill Swerski: Okay, gentlemen, another scenario: Da Bears, they don't make it, the plane is delayed.. and the only one who shows up is Ditka. Ditka vs. Da Giants. Okay, score, gentlemen.

Pat Arnold: Alright, after da heart attack, I gotta say Ditka 17, Giants 14. He just barely gets by.

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Offline franksolich

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Re: primitives make electoral college predictions
« Reply #7 on: January 30, 2012, 05:17:44 AM »
Now, I'm not God, and can't tell the future, but this is the way it currently seems to me:

The Magic One is currently on the defensive; he's got nothing good to show on his record, and is going to have to struggle to keep those who voted for him in 2008, in line.  He could hold what he got then, but he's not going to conquer any new ground.

The states that voted red in 2008 are going to vote red in 2012, no matter who the Republican candidate is.

So to me, that's the way it seems to stand right now; the Magic One's in no position to pick up any 2008 red states, only to hold onto what he got back then, at the most.  The question is, which of the 2008 blue states are going to be red in 2012?
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Offline diesel driver

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Re: primitives make electoral college predictions
« Reply #8 on: January 30, 2012, 05:29:47 AM »
Quote from: chris_ on January 29, 2012, 03:13:25 PM
In 2008, Obama won the following states with less than 200,000 votes:

Colorado
District of Columbia*
Iowa
Maine
Rhode Island
New Mexico
Vermont
Nevada
Delaware
New Hampshire
Indiana
North Carolina

Also, 200,000 was the margin he lost the following states. 

Missouri
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Alaska
Wyoming
West Virginia
Nebraska
Idaho
Mississippi
South Carolina
Arizona
Kansas

I suppose you could consider them "in play", but I know there's more to it than that.

Virginia will not make the mistake of voting for Zero this time.

BTW, the entire population of WV is about 1,000,000. 

Zero may have lost by less than 200K there, but that was 40% of the total.  WV went over 2 to 1 for McCain.
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Offline JohnnyReb

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Re: primitives make electoral college predictions
« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2012, 05:38:45 AM »
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Offline franksolich

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Re: primitives make electoral college predictions
« Reply #10 on: January 30, 2012, 05:42:09 AM »
Quote from: diesel driver on January 30, 2012, 05:29:47 AM
Virginia will not make the mistake of voting for Zero this time.

BTW, the entire population of WV is about 1,000,000. 

Zero may have lost by less than 200K there, but that was 40% of the total.  WV went over 2 to 1 for McCain.

Of those red states, only Missouri and Arizona were what one would call "close;" all the others went for McCain by wide percentage-margins.

The other factor when considering the red states is that they went red in 2008 despite the Republicans having the weakest presidential candidate since Wendell Willkie in 1940 ("weak" in the sense of being more alike the Democrat candidate than unlike); since they went red despite that, they're not going to go blue with a stronger Republican candidate.

I think it looks good, and think Mitt and Newt have got to quit beating each other up, and beat up instead on the Magic One.
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Milo Yiannopoulos "It has been obvious since 2016 that Trump carries an anointing of some kind. My American friends, are you so blind to reason, and deaf to Heaven? Can he do all this, and cannot get a crown? This man is your King. Coronate him, and watch every devil shriek, and every demon howl."

Offline franksolich

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Re: primitives make electoral college predictions
« Reply #11 on: January 30, 2012, 05:46:17 AM »
Quote from: JohnnyReb on January 30, 2012, 05:38:45 AM
This was the 2008 predictions.....

http://www.humanevents.com/images/emails/ENPR/electoral_college.gif

....and this was the results.

http://www.humanevents.com/images/2008-electoral-college-results1-1.gif

Big difference.

That's a funny map.

Who the Hell ever designated North Dakota "leaning" Republican?

North Dakota's a small state, only three electoral votes, but on the other hand, the strongest Democrat candidate was Al Smith in.....1928.  Al Smith lost North Dakota to Herbert Hoover in a landslide, but that was the highest total any Democrat presidential candidate got there, ever.

Lyndon Johnson carried the state in 1964, but with much fewer votes than Smith had gotten 36 years earlier.
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apres moi, le deluge

Milo Yiannopoulos "It has been obvious since 2016 that Trump carries an anointing of some kind. My American friends, are you so blind to reason, and deaf to Heaven? Can he do all this, and cannot get a crown? This man is your King. Coronate him, and watch every devil shriek, and every demon howl."
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