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Author Topic: Spread betting and elections  (Read 2490 times)

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Offline bijou

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Spread betting and elections
« on: May 05, 2008, 01:23:49 PM »
We have just had some local elections here, I was following them and posting about them over the past few days
on a number of British blogs and boards. One of the ones I was following was politicalbetting.com which was set up for spread bettors, who basically buy and sell results in order to make money a bit like trading shares. I knew little (and still know not much more) about the mechanics of it.  But the posters are lively and quite well informed on the whole, now that our elections are over (apart from one vacant seat in Crewe and Nantwich caused by the death of a Labour MP) they are turning their attention back to the Democratic primaries and I thought that some here might be interested to take a look.  Be warned, the threads do veer off topic at times and posts follow one another in a straight line.

http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/05/its-indiana-and-north-carolina-tomorrow/#comments

http://politicalbetting.com/

There is no  betting on the site, that is done with various firms at other url's, this is just commentary.
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Offline Baruch Menachem

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Re: Spread betting and elections
« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2008, 09:36:37 PM »
University of Iowa has done this for years.  This is the current prices on the candidates..:


They have a very large market, so it is almost impossible to game it.   The results have been pretty consistently accurate too.
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Offline Baruch Menachem

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Re: Spread betting and elections
« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2008, 09:18:36 AM »
Hey, this is cool, the graphic updates!


Notice the what happend to Hillary's price this morning.  Delcious.
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An optimist sees the glass as half full, a pessimist sees the glass as half empty, an engineer sees that there is twice the glass required to contain the beer

My name is Obamandias, King of Kings, 
  Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!

Offline bijou

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Re: Spread betting and elections
« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2008, 12:28:06 PM »
Quote from: Baruch Menachem on May 07, 2008, 09:18:36 AM
Hey, this is cool, the graphic updates!


Notice the what happend to Hillary's price this morning.  Delcious.
I have to say, even as a non gambler, that following the market when you've got an interest in the outcome is a fascinating way to track public opinion.
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Offline Baruch Menachem

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Re: Spread betting and elections
« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2008, 08:58:45 AM »
The price changes since Tuesday have just been amazing.  Those who bought into Hillary were probably also big buyers of Bear Stearns and Enron.
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An optimist sees the glass as half full, a pessimist sees the glass as half empty, an engineer sees that there is twice the glass required to contain the beer

My name is Obamandias, King of Kings, 
  Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!

Offline bijou

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Re: Spread betting and elections
« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2008, 03:30:43 PM »
The market has decided Hillary is dead in the water.
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Offline SSG Snuggle Bunny

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Re: Spread betting and elections
« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2008, 07:38:06 AM »
Several years ago the defense R&D section DARPA was running a futures trading site revolving around significant events. Alas, many of the events were very grim in nature (i.e. will there be a 9/11-scale attack on he US in 200X?) and as such the project was considered too politically incorrect to continue.

Stategypage.com has since picked-up the project.

http://www.strategypage.com/prediction_market/default.asp

It currently shows McCain beating Obama by 2.5 to 1 odds with a lifetime accuracy of 85%.
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Offline Baruch Menachem

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Re: Spread betting and elections
« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2008, 07:55:39 AM »
So what is the price on a revolution in Burma?   A bit overdue, I would think.

I just like how Hilllary's price collapsed.

They are going to have to adjust the graphic when Obama goes over 90cents.
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An optimist sees the glass as half full, a pessimist sees the glass as half empty, an engineer sees that there is twice the glass required to contain the beer

My name is Obamandias, King of Kings, 
  Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!

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