Iran, Israel, America geopolitical debate thread

[Cyrus]

First argument, fear mongering:
The IRI wishes to attack Israel and thus is a threat to regional stability and American interests in the region.

I will counter this argument with two answers one is one is Israeli perspective one is American perspective.

Israeli: An attack on Iran by Israel would be costly for Israeli security as it would engage Israel in a war with Hezbollah and the Islamic world. It would be negative for Israeli interests in long term because it would promote Israel as an aggressor to its Arab neighbors and fuel more anti-Israeli propaganda.
American: An attack on Iran by America/Israel would result in the Persian gulf becoming unsafe for American oil interests and a possible attack on Saudi Arabia which is America's life line for crucial oil.

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxeY6bq7lY0[/youtube]

Second argument, appeal to personal freedoms:
The Iranian people want freedom and we need to liberate them.

Interventionism in Iran has failed, in fact, it was what fueled the 1979 Iranian revolution. In 1953 when America overthrew Iran's secular democracy, Iran's legacy of anti-Americanism began, contrary to the "they hate us because of their religion/culture/own backwardness" argument. Anti-Americanism in the Middle East while I do not support it is not rooted in religion or a hatred of American freedoms but American intervention in the Middle East. I believe that the American governance understands that the youth of Iran who make up the majority of the population are fairly pro-democratic and secular, however I also am under belief that American governance knows that an assault on Iran would re ignition nationalism in Iran and make Iranians rally around the flag which would hurt them in the long term.

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fy3KDYE5KQE[/youtube]
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrBVQjivS08[/youtube]
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYutojeC5Kk[/youtube]

To answer this question in the end, a democratic, secular, Iran would be extremely positive for American interests but it should come through the acts of the Iranian people themselves.

These are the two main arguments used today when it comes to the situation with Iran and the West. The beauty of humanity is evident in the cycles of civilization, as civilizations fall, others rise, the Middle East the cradle of all human civilizations and culture, was at many points in history at the pinnacle of civilization, like the Europeans of the Middle Ages gained mathematical, philosophical, and scientific concepts from the peoples of the East whom improved on older Roman, Indian, and even far Eastern works, so should the modern people of the Middle East today, humble themselves and accept the new world order of today and stop clinging onto the old and broken civilizations of the past.

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UyVRULofpM[/youtube]
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_0TEIfZB80[/youtube]

I hope this thread can have some good debates on it! Enjoy the attached videos 

[TVDOC]

Well....all of your arguments regarding the people of Iran and their historical and current thoughts are really meaningless to your initial question,,,,,,

The REAL issue has nothing to do with the Iranian people.....it has to do with the Mullahs, and what they chose to do in Iran's name.  As far as Israel is concerned, they are already at war with Hezbollah and Hamas (As are we in the US, by proxy in Iraq and Afganistan), so there is no loss there....and if push came to shove, and Israel were not constrained by the rest of the western world, wiping out those two would be a walk in the park for the IDF.....they have kicked their enemies butts several times in the past,,,,,a ragtag bunch of terrorists would be "no contest", and just for grins at the same time they could solve the Palestinian problem  once and for all.....the west is going to condemn them anyway.....what's to lose?.

That said, if the Mullahs end up with a nuclear weapon, Israel will act preemptively to protect themselves, whether the US or the rest of the world approves or not......they are not going to allow another Jewish Holocaust.......

It's wonderful for you to regale us with information about your country and its people, however my advice would be for you to pass along to your countrymen.....don't **** with Israel.......and if you think the US will stand by and allow the Straits of Hormuz to be closed, you're in for another surprise....even with the coward we have in the White House today, that isn't going to happen.

Most Americans (and I'd hazard most Israelis) have no problems with the Iranian people......it is your government that is the problem.......and  it's never wise to mess with two countries that can make your homeland uninhabitable for the next ten thousand years....with the push of a button.....

doc

[Cyrus]

if push came to shove, and Israel were not constrained by the rest of the western world, wiping out those two would be a walk in the park for the IDF.....they have kicked their enemies butts several times in the past,,,,,a ragtag bunch of terrorists would be "no contest", and just for grins at the same time they could solve the Palestinian problem  once and for all.....the west is going to condemn them anyway.....what's to lose?.

Well actually the IDF is notorious for being one of the most humanitarian armies in the world. They help build schools and nurseries for Palestinians and have even helped injured Palestinian terrorists before. The IDF would be the last military force to try to wipe them out. The IDF has one of the lowest civilian casualty rates in the world, most Palestinian civilian deaths are caused by other Palestinians.

I am planning on moving to Israel some day to join the IDF because of my respect for them.

That said, if the Mullahs end up with a nuclear weapon, Israel will act preemptively to protect themselves, whether the US or the rest of the world approves or not......they are not going to allow another Jewish Holocaust.......

You are right. Israel would be crazy not to do this action. However I don't think Iran is capable of acquiring a nuclear weapon with so many sanctions.

It's wonderful for you to regale us with information about your country and its people, however my advice would be for you to pass along to your countrymen.....don't **** with Israel.......and if you think the US will stand by and allow the Straits of Hormuz to be closed, you're in for another surprise....even with the coward we have in the White House today, that isn't going to happen.

Most Americans (and I'd hazard most Israelis) have no problems with the Iranian people......it is your government that is the problem.......and  it's never wise to mess with two countries that can make your homeland uninhabitable for the next ten thousand years....with the push of a button.....

doc

This is where we require some military analytical perspective. From what I understand the Straits of Hormuz are so small that they can be controlled easily. Closed maybe not but it would be a major major mess and on going battle there which would be negative for American interests.

Personally I believe that Israel should be Iran's greatest ally in the future, a bigger ally than America even (because of proximity).

Thanks for the reply, doc! Appreciated!

[TVDOC]

Well actually the IDF is notorious for being one of the most humanitarian armies in the world. They help build schools and nurseries for Palestinians and have even helped injured Palestinian terrorists before. The IDF would be the last military force to try to wipe them out. The IDF has one of the lowest civilian casualty rates in the world, most Palestinian civilian deaths are caused by other Palestinians.

I am planning on moving to Israel some day to join the IDF because of my respect for them.

Perhaps yes if you only look at recent skirmishes.....I'd study the Yom Kippur war for what the IDF is really capable of accomplishing when their hand is forced......it isn't pretty, but war never is, and all would do well to remember that.

You are right. Israel would be crazy not to do this action. However I don't think Iran is capable of acquiring a nuclear weapon with so many sanctions.

Based on what I understand, either you are young and naive, or "pulling or leg" in the vernacular......the only reason that Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon today is due to the efforts of Mossad (and CIA) and it's surrogates in Iran.

This is where we require some military analytical perspective. From what I understand the Straits of Hormuz are so small that they can be controlled easily. Closed maybe not but it would be a major major mess and on going battle there which would be negative for American interests.

You've obviously never seen an American Carrier Battle Group in action.......ask Saddam Hussein how that worked out for him.  Closing the Straits would crash the world's economy........not gonna happen.....I'm not really well versed on our military capabilities, how my best guess would be that Iran's air, naval, and coastal defenses in the Straits would last less than a week.....

Personally I believe that Israel should be Iran's greatest ally in the future, a bigger ally than America even (because of proximity).

One can only dream......but I'd suggest that your countrymen do something about your internal problems before attempting to befriend anyone else.


doc

[TVDOC]

Cyrus.....now I have a question for you......

Why would a country awash in oil and natural gas (the world's second largest reserves) need a nuclear power plant to generate electricity.....the Saudis manage to do quite well without one.........?

Secondly why, assuming there is an actual need for such a power plant, did Iran's leaders turn down the west's offers to build it for them, so long as western engineers and technicians were the only ones allowed to refuel and dispose of the spent fuel rods?

doc

[Mr Mannn]

At this point, only a fool would believe Iran is NOT building a nuclear bomb.

I fully support military action and a nuke used to wipe out the mullahs in the city of Quom. The leadership is insane, and must be removed with military action.

Sanctions mean nothing. Iran has been able to get around every one.

[TVDOC]

At this point, only a fool would believe Iran is NOT building a nuclear bomb.

I fully support military action and a nuke used to wipe out the mullahs in the city of Quom. The leadership is insane, and must be removed with military action.

Sanctions mean nothing. Iran has been able to get around every one.

I think that a nuke is a bit extreme, however......if the average Iranian is as "secular" as Cyrus claims, and they hate the Mullahs, why haven't they overthrown them as they did with the Shah?  I mean if it's a question of weapons, the insurgents can buy them from the same sources that every other terrorist does.....they'll sell to anybody......

A single well-placed round from a trained rifleman at a range of 1000 meters at his next "outdoor sermon", and the Ayatolla is gone, and the government is in disarray.....

I doubt that we are really getting the full skinny here, and although I'm inclined to give him the benefit of a doubt, there is no substantive evidence that Cyrus is an Iranian.....what makes me a bit suspicious is his comment above that he would like to move to Israel and join the IDF.......one can only be a combat member of the IDF if one is both an Israeli citizen and is Jewish.......

doc

[Mr Mannn]

Yeah the nuke bit was extreme. But I would like to see regime change beyond targeting the Ayatollah. One cruise missile to take out all the ruling mullahs while they are all together..that's what I want.

[Cyrus]

Cyrus.....now I have a question for you......

Why would a country awash in oil and natural gas (the world's second largest reserves) need a nuclear power plant to generate electricity.....the Saudis manage to do quite well without one.........?

Secondly why, assuming there is an actual need for such a power plant, did Iran's leaders turn down the west's offers to build it for them, so long as western engineers and technicians were the only ones allowed to refuel and dispose of the spent fuel rods?

doc

Your argument was very smart and true. I think it's obvious IRI is developing nuclear weapons, Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have hinted to it pretty obviously many times.

[NHSparky]

Cyrus--I'll go so far as to say this: While I won't say EXACTLY what U.S. Navy assets are coming into and out of Bahrain at any given time, I will say that one 688-class submarine will probably turn your rusting coastal defense force into a series of artificial reefs within a matter of days or even hours, depending on how fast you manage to send them out. 

Whichever ones manage to leave port, that is.  Oh, and control of the Strait will only matter if your air and naval assets get close enough to the Strait to TRY to close it.

[Cyrus]

I think that a nuke is a bit extreme, however......if the average Iranian is as "secular" as Cyrus claims, and they hate the Mullahs, why haven't they overthrown them as they did with the Shah?  I mean if it's a question of weapons, the insurgents can buy them from the same sources that every other terrorist does.....they'll sell to anybody......

I think it's because the average Iranian opposed to the Islamic Republic isn't an Islamist. Islamism made Iranians more brave to fight and kill for their believes. Also, unlike in the times of the Shah, the average Iranian doesn't own a weapon.

This video puts it very well:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9W_0RzAkMAA

At the end of the video you see the true size of anti-regime rallies. However these rallies are made up of young Iranians who are too flamboyant and bisexual to hold guns or just don't believe in it. Someone on a FOX news interview I saw on Youtube once said that it would be impossible to overthrow the Mullah regime without violence.

I doubt that we are really getting the full skinny here, and although I'm inclined to give him the benefit of a doubt, there is no substantive evidence that Cyrus is an Iranian.....what makes me a bit suspicious is his comment above that he would like to move to Israel and join the IDF.......one can only be a combat member of the IDF if one is both an Israeli citizen and is Jewish.......

doc

Actually doc, you must only have to be a Israeli citizen to optionally join IDF from what I have read.

I love this video (the picture at 2:43 is my favorite): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkLGlFPqkrA

[Cyrus]

Yeah the nuke bit was extreme. But I would like to see regime change beyond targeting the Ayatollah. One cruise missile to take out all the ruling mullahs while they are all together..that's what I want.

All it takes is a rogue Iranian sniper squad

Check this out:
http://world.foxnews.mobi/quickPage.html?page=26154&content=41388058&pageNum=-1

[Cyrus]

Cyrus--I'll go so far as to say this: While I won't say EXACTLY what U.S. Navy assets are coming into and out of Bahrain at any given time, I will say that one 688-class submarine will probably turn your rusting coastal defense force into a series of artificial reefs within a matter of days or even hours, depending on how fast you manage to send them out. 

Whichever ones manage to leave port, that is.  Oh, and control of the Strait will only matter if your air and naval assets get close enough to the Strait to TRY to close it.

I am not a military analyst specialist so I will agree with what you have said.

[TVDOC]

Actually doc, you must only have to be a Israeli citizen to optionally join IDF from what I have read.

You can join the IDF Auxiliary as a non Jewish citizen, however you cannot serve in a combat unit......

doc

[Janice]

Israel may launch strike on Iran as soon as next month to prevent development of nuclear weapons

Israel will launch military action to prevent Iran developing a nuclear weapon as soon as Christmas, intelligence chiefs have warned.

A report by a UN watchdog into Iran’s nuclear ambitions ‘completely discredits’ the Islamic nation’s protestations of innocence, according to Foreign Secretary William Hague.

The International Atomic Energy Agency found that Iran is developing a nuclear test facility, nuclear detonators and computer modelling for a nuclear warhead that would fit on an existing missile.

Sources say the understanding at the top of the British Government is that Israel will attempt to strike against the nuclear sites ‘sooner rather than later’ – with logistical support from the U.S.

----------------------------------------------------------

I'm amazed the anti semite in the White House would go near this ... but maybe that little hot mic embarrassment at the UN has had a bit of an effect. Who knows?

[CG6468]

Israel will launch military action to prevent Iran developing a nuclear weapon as soon as Christmas, intelligence chiefs have warned.

That would be a nice Christmas present for the free world.

[DumbAss Tanker]

Iran lacks the capability to keep the Straits of Hormuz closed in the face of a deployed carrier battle group, by a very large margin, although keeping them open would be an extended, expensive operation (Just in terms of the money to sustain it on station, though, not in terms of casualties or ships and planes).

North Korea, and even Saddam's Iraq, demonstrate that a nation can and will starve and shortchange its people to prioritize a nuclear weapons project to viability and even success with what it can get despite a sanctions regime, if it has a land border to a state that is corrupt or just not willingly participating in the sanctions, or even if it's just willing to misappropriate the 'Humanitarian' trade proceeds it does receive.  This is the ideological rationale underpinning of the general Russian and Chinese opposition to sanctions, though their practical reasons are far less noble.  Even Israel's still-unadmitted nuclear weapons program had similar beginnings, though the civilian hardships there were nothing like what the Norks or Iraqis endured under their dictators.

Israel can attack Iran, though with great difficulty, the Iranian facilities are more dispersed, hardened, and much farther from Israel than Osirak was.  Still, an attack with conventional weapons would not produce decisive results, really the only thing that would check the Iranian program for more than a few months (Even if everything went perfectly) would be a nuclear attack. 

The elephant in the room for Iran is the question that if it's all about energy, why aren't they building some refineries instead of a reactor?  Their energy problem isn't a lack of oil, it is a lack of refined product to use for energy generation.  There are several paths out of that short of developing a nationwide nuclear energy system, building refineries is the cheapest and quickest.   

[TVDOC]

The elephant in the room for Iran is the question that if it's all about energy, why aren't they building some refineries instead of a reactor?  Their energy problem isn't a lack of oil, it is a lack of refined product to use for energy generation.  There are several paths out of that short of developing a nationwide nuclear energy system, building refineries is the cheapest and quickest.   

Absolutely.....Iran has one major refining complex.....should Israel really get serious, a single fuel/air munition dropped on that complex, coupled with a port blockade would bring Iran's economy as well as it's industrial capability to a halt within a week.

The entire nuclear power plant discussion is nonsense.......Iran can't run military vehicles, ships, or aircraft on electricity regardless of its source. 

Geez, when even the UN runs up the fission warhead flag,  what does manifestation of a threat consist of to these people.......defies the imagination.  The current "politically correct" western diplomatic theory that all "cultures" are essentially equal intellectually and morally is a recipe for genocide.  I wouldn't hand a loaded revolver to my grandchild, and the civilized world shouldn't allow the morally equivalent action with WMD's. 

When the day of reckoning arrives, I want Ron Paul, as well as every Libertarian/liberal asshole in this and every other western country that thinks "....we've got them, why shouldn't everyone else that wants them......"  to be standing at ground zero, facing the fireball........being that damn stupid should carry the death penalty......

The Saudis have stated publicly that if Iran is allowed to join the club, they will as well, soon followed by Turkey, Egypt and a few other Middle Eastern countries.........just what we need, a few million 7th century zealots running around with nuclear warheads.  I've heard liberal "experts" state that having a nuclear warhead is really not a problem without a reliable delivery system........to cultures that place absolutely NO value on human life, the "delivery system" is easy.

doc

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

So what's Russia's angle in all this?

They have to know the Israelis will/have to act. Keeping Israel from dusting-up the entire ME is motive enough to get Obama to act.

Russia may be just fulfilling its role as spoiler from central casting but that guarantees a conflict. While I doubt the US will seek regime change and strikes would be an excuse from Imanutjob to clamp down on opposition Russia still runs the risk of losing a client.

Moreover, I'll bet dollars to carrots that Russian technicians are on the ground, in harm's way.

[TVDOC]

So what's Russia's angle in all this?

Iran is Russia's best customer for medium to heavy military hardware (including, but not limited to aircraft, submarines and surface ships).  Further, Russia sold and constructed the present operational reactors (one power plant and at least two research reactors).  Also, under the present sanctions, Iran buys many types of commercial equipment/material from Russia that cannot be bought from western sources.......Russia ignores the sanctions.

Iran further shares a border with Turkministan and has ports on the Caspian Sea, making logistics simple.  Easier and less expensive than buying the same stuff from China or NK.

Iran has lots of petrodollars (selling oil to China and NK).......Russia has lots of excess military/industrial manufacturing capacity.

doc

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

I get that Iran is a client but why is Russia setting the pre-conditions to getting its client bombed?

[Eupher]

I get that Iran is a client but why is Russia setting the pre-conditions to getting its client bombed?

Instability in the ME works to Russia's favor, particularly with a spineless U.S. president. Russia steps into the vacuum.

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

Instability in the ME works to Russia's favor, particularly with a spineless U.S. president. Russia steps into the vacuum.

It also makes the other Gulf states who oppose Russia and/or Iran run to the US.

We got more of them then Russia has clients.

[Eupher]

It also makes the other Gulf states who oppose Russia and/or Iran run to the US.

We got more of them then Russia has clients.

Maybe in the final analysis, but the spinelessness and lack of resolve by the U.S.'s president goes a long way in a potential client going to Russia. And maybe the price is right, too.

Let's also not forget the general distrust by the ME to western culture, with a few notable exceptions thrown in - Dubai, UAE, Kuwait. Not that those places trust the west -- it's just that the money is pretty good.

[TVDOC]

I get that Iran is a client but why is Russia setting the pre-conditions to getting its client bombed?

Well....Russia is more than energy independent, they are net exporters of oil and natural gas (they have some development and transport issues, but nothing insurmountable)  They also want to build a pipeline from the Caspian fields, that the west is blocking.

If Iran gets the crap kicked out of it, the ensuing melee will increase the projected cost of a barrel of oil to the $200 range......more cash in their pocket.  They can sell more stuff to enable the survivors to rebuild.  The ensuing shortage will ensure construction of the Caspian pipeline solving one of their significant delivery issues.

The short answer is so long as Russia benefits, short term, they simply don't give a crap.

Win-win.....

doc