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Author Topic: Iowa: Cain 37, Romney 27, Paul 12, Gingrich 8  (Read 2655 times)

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Offline Chris_

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Iowa: Cain 37, Romney 27, Paul 12, Gingrich 8
« on: October 22, 2011, 10:13:51 PM »
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Iowa: Cain 37, Romney 27, Paul 12, Gingrich 8

The poll was completed before the Piers Morgan interview on abortion aired. Iowa conservatives weren’t happy about that, but Cain did some useful damage control today and has plenty of time to do more. Major caveat: The margin of error in this poll among likely Republican caucus-goers is, er, 7.4 percent. In no other poll does Cain lead by this much (his next highest total in Iowa is 30 percent), so it may be an outlier. But look at it this way: Even allowing for the maximum error here, he still leads Perry 30/13.

Perry’s chances in New Hampshire are almost as dead as Bachmann’s right now, so he’s suddenly in a position of flaming out in not one but both of the two key early states. I don’t know how he’d recover if that happened. South Carolina would be his firewall, but the damage to his fundraising if he lost Iowa would be colossal and, per Giuliani’s 2008 “strategy,” campaigns that stake their viability on a single state a few weeks into the primary schedule aren’t good bets. South Carolinians would also have to think strategically if Cain won Iowa: By opting for Perry instead of Cain, they’d ensure a split in the “Not Romney” conservative vote that would probably guarantee Romney’s nomination. Which is why, while Perry can skip New Hampshire, I think he’s stuck having to compete in Iowa. Sooner or later he’ll have to suck it up and start attacking Cain in earnest.
Hot Air

More good news for Herman Cain.
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Offline NHSparky

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Re: Iowa: Cain 37, Romney 27, Paul 12, Gingrich 8
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2011, 10:19:50 PM »
Paul at 12 percent?  Mass stupidity or the Elvis Factor?
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Offline Chris_

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Re: Iowa: Cain 37, Romney 27, Paul 12, Gingrich 8
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2011, 10:36:44 PM »
I'm not sure what the Elvis Factor is, so I'll just go with mass stupidity.
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Offline NHSparky

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Re: Iowa: Cain 37, Romney 27, Paul 12, Gingrich 8
« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2011, 10:53:18 PM »
Quote from: chris_ on October 22, 2011, 10:36:44 PM
I'm not sure what the Elvis Factor is, so I'll just go with mass stupidity.

Pretty close, actually.

http://townhall.com/columnists/larryelder/2009/09/17/jimmy_carter_and_the_elvis_factor/page/full/

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A recent poll found that 10 percent of Americans believe Elvis Presley is still alive, and 8 percent believe that if you send him a letter -- he will get it."
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Offline Ballygrl

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Re: Iowa: Cain 37, Romney 27, Paul 12, Gingrich 8
« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2011, 10:59:02 PM »
I can't believe I'm saying this but I love Gingrich.
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Offline JohnnyReb

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Re: Iowa: Cain 37, Romney 27, Paul 12, Gingrich 8
« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2011, 06:12:26 AM »
I live in SC and most of the group I know as of right now is going to vote Cain.

Now if someone more conservative comes along...things might change.
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Offline docstew

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Re: Iowa: Cain 37, Romney 27, Paul 12, Gingrich 8
« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2011, 06:29:51 AM »
Quote from: Ballygrl on October 22, 2011, 10:59:02 PM
I can't believe I'm saying this but I love Gingrich.

Would love to see him in an advisory position in a Cain admin... the man is brilliant, but won't hesitate to tell you so.
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Offline DumbAss Tanker

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Re: Iowa: Cain 37, Romney 27, Paul 12, Gingrich 8
« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2011, 08:51:23 AM »
True, doc, and unfortunately as smart as Newt actually is, he believes himself to be smarter yet, and is constantly getting his tit caught in the wringer for that recurring error in judgment.

As far as Cain and the abortion kerfuffle goes, Romney's his major threat, and it isn't tough to make the call between the two of them on either that (Which is not my paramount issue) or RKBA (Which is).
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Offline Ballygrl

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Re: Iowa: Cain 37, Romney 27, Paul 12, Gingrich 8
« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2011, 09:28:18 AM »
Quote from: docstew on October 23, 2011, 06:29:51 AM
Would love to see him in an advisory position in a Cain admin... the man is brilliant, but won't hesitate to tell you so.

I'd love to see Gingrich debate Obama.
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Offline Erasmus

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Re: Iowa: Cain 37, Romney 27, Paul 12, Gingrich 8
« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2011, 10:35:43 AM »
I wish they'd get rid of Romney somehow.  Maybe since he advised Obama's crew on socialised medicine, Obama can draft him for running mate or something.
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