After Ames

[formerlurker]

But the real loser may still be Bachmann. Her victory may trap her in the Iowa State coliseum. Her instinct now will be to out-conservative Rick Perry, just like she out-conservatived Pawlenty. But Bachmann is already plenty conservative. Not even Ronald Reagan could get to her right. What she needs to prove now is that she can grow an economy and win independents in the fall. What she needs to prove is that she is not too extreme to beat Barack Obama. Otherwise, she will never be nominated. And this will be the day her campaign peaked.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/274594/after-ames-nro-symposium?page=1


While I think the Iowa straw poll is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY overrated, she should take this advise and plan her campaign wisely.

There is no doubt she owns the far right base.    It's the rest and the independents she has to sell her message to now.  She loses sight of that?  she will end up a footnote in this campaign cycle.

[formerlurker]

Hmmmm, if I were to lay money down on this race, with the candidate pool we have presently?

This will be a fight to the end between Perry and Romney, with Cain as a possible spoiler.    Perry and Romney are politicians' politicians.   Cain is one of us.  I can easily see him start to rise to the top if Perry/Romney/Bachmann start an attack campaign against each other (which by the way I am already seeing Perry's campaign staff in New Hampshire already throwing bombs her way by referring to her as a weak Palin clone).   Tsk tsk tsk, remember Reagan's rule boys.   Keep your attacks focused on the messiah.   Did Pawlenty not teach you anything?

 

[NHSparky]

Bachman, IMO, made an error with Ames.  She needn't have spent over $2M (as did Paul and Pawlenty) to win the straw poll.  As DAT stated, it won't predict the eventual winner but does give them some airplay.  However, Bachman already had plenty of column-inches and TV time based on her performance in the debates to this point.  She's going to have a very difficult time repeating that in Iowa and New Hampshire, and even South Carolina.  Couple that with the savaging she's going to take (and so far it's been pretty mild) and IMO, she won't be around past March.

Which brings us down to Romney and Perry.  Perry did better as a write-in than did Romney, although neither campaigned in Ames.  It's going to come down to one of these two.  Personally, Bachman, not Cain, is going to be the kingmaker in this race.  If/when Bachman drops out, whoever she falls behind is all but assured of being the nominee.  Barring any huge shifts, Perry will basically take Iowa, Romney will win New Hampshire going away, Perry will take South Carolina, and after that, it's anyone's ballgame.

[DumbAss Tanker]

Yeah, I think Romney and Ron Paul will both make strong showing in NH, far out of any realistic proportion to how they'd do in the general election especially in Paul's case, so it's a one-off kind of situation.  Still, all the contenders are obliged to play in it to show their commitment to the goal, no matter how pointless it is in the big picture.

Bachmann's religious entanglements sell great with the religious folks in the GOP base (And to a lot of religious 'Hereditary Democrats' in the Midwest and South), but not so well with the broad center.  I've seen people do some pretty stupid shit after 'Praying for guidance' on decisions which should have been rendered fairly obvious by a none-too-difficult rational calculation of risk vs. reward, I have to say I have deep misgivings about turning over the nuke football to someone like her or Huckabee for that reason, despite all her positives.   

[NHSparky]

Yeah, I think Romney and Ron Paul will both make strong showing in NH, far out of any realistic proportion to how they'd do in the general election especially in Paul's case, so it's a one-off kind of situation.  Still, all the contenders are obliged to play in it to show their commitment to the goal, no matter how pointless it is in the big picture.

Bachmann's religious entanglements sell great with the religious folks in the GOP base (And to a lot of religious 'Hereditary Democrats' in the Midwest and South), but not so well with the broad center.  I've seen people do some pretty stupid shit after 'Praying for guidance' on decisions which should have been rendered fairly obvious by a none-too-difficult rational calculation of risk vs. reward, I have to say I have deep misgivings about turning over the nuke football to someone like her or Huckabee for that reason, despite all her positives.  

Again, I disagree with you on Paul.  He had HUGE publicity and basically put as much as he could into NH in 2008, but still only managed fifth.  Look for more of the same.  Those who labeled themselves as "very conservative" or "somewhat conservative" went more for Romney, McCain, and Huckabee in 2008.  Paul was never a factor with solid conservatives, and in fact most of his support came from so-called "independents" who were in fact more liberal than anything else.

And as far as Christian values, Perry and Bachman are close to the same character, although I wouldn't put Perry as far out as Bachman.  But you're right, the heavy religious influence will turn a lot of voters off in the early primaries, including Michigan and Florida.

So at this point, as I've stated before, it's a two-person race between Perry and Romney, but I think Romney has too many issues to secure the nomination, and I really think Bachman's religion-on-her-sleeve bit will wear thin after a while, like it did with Huckabee.  Mitt will pick up some early primaries (including Michigan), but if Perry does well in the debates in September and October (next one at the Reagan Library on 9/14/11) he's going to have a lot of momentum going into Iowa/NH/SC.

[DumbAss Tanker]

I don't actually disagree with you Sparky, but no matter how sane people look at it, I think Paul coming in 5th is not going to be looked at as a loss by the Ronbots, but as an encouragement, given the size of the field. 

In real terms of winning the nomination, yeah, I think it will be Romney and Perry ultimately; who Bachmann would throw her support behind is kind of an open question if it comes to that, but I would say Perry has the edge there if he doesn't piss her off in the meantime.

[formerlurker]

I don't think it matters who Bachmann supports (and I don't see her endorsing anyone when she checks out).   Conservatives will flock to Perry for no other reason than Texas vs. Massachusetts, Texas wins every time with conservatives.

Cain may not have pretty polished words, but he gives the perception that he is a problem solver -- roll up your sleeves and let's get this figured out.   That would resonate with voters if he is seizes the golden opportunity to sell it (and that is when the three top candidates are beating the tar out of each other).  I can see him being the dark horse in this race. 

[Ballygrl]

I don't see Romney getting the nomination at all, he's flip flopped way too much, and has too much baggage, and maybe it's just me that sees it but Romney lacks "spark", and this is someone who voted for him in 2008. He reminds me of Thompson back in 2008, doesn't really look like he wants to run. I want enthusiasm, I want someone who yells how much they love this Country and how we can get back to the greatness we once had.