What happened in Wisconsin? Citizen exit polls suggest (more) GOP election fraud

[Freeper]

waking wisconsin (30 posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list    Sun Aug-14-11 01:53 PM
Original message
What happened in Wisconsin? Citizen exit polls suggest (more) GOP election fraud
   
The results of our exit polling are presented in the Table below. In every case there are sizeable disparities between the computer-tabulated votecount percentages and the percentages indicated by our exit polls respondents. And in every case the disparity is a “red shift,” the votecount percentages more favorable to the Republican candidate than are the exit poll percentages.





http://electiondefensealliance.org/http%3A/%252Felectio...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1738466

More of this exit poll bullshit the DUmmies love to use as proof that the GOP stole the election. 

[GOBUCKS]

The results of our exit polling

If you came out of the polls, and saw some freak with a neck tattoo and a ring in his nose,
carrying a clipboard, would you walk toward him, or the other direction?

[BlueStateSaint]

Rev, PM me.  It's obvious that you didn't read that chapter in the VRWC Handbook, about non-obvious moling . . . 

[miskie]

If you came out of the polls, and saw some freak with a neck tattoo and a ring in his nose,
carrying a clipboard, would you walk toward him, or the other direction?

This is the one tidbit they really don't understand or refuse to accept. Exit polling relies on voluntary participation, and the demeanor & appearance of the pollster can sway who is willing to participate.

If the pollster has a goatee, multiple piercings & many visible tattoos  - he will attract a different segment of responders than someone dressed in a suit & tie, and wearing an American flag lapel pin.

--And we can't forget TIA, the king of the misapplied Monte Carlo simulation.

**Friends of TIA - or TIA himself.....

What you do is wrong for the same reason the 'Martingale Strategy' is wrong. (The Martingale strategy usually appears in Roulette where one always 'bets on black' and doubles down until they win, then the person goes back to the minimum bet and continues to double down until they win again - the doubling allows your theoretical 'win' to cover your previous losses, if you Martingale at about 250% the theory is you will cover your losses and make a tidy profit.. ) -- Just like every spin of the roulette wheel is unique, every person is their own dataset..

In the case of Martingale betting, the player assumes that 'the odds are black has to come up soon because its been red too many times in a row' is a false assumption. Since each wheel spin is unique the odds never change - each spin is its own dataset - like people are. Because I get out of bed on the left side today, doesn't change the odds that I will get out of bed on the right side tomorrow. The same is true when talking to exit pollsters.

Now, when you take a bunch of unique datasets and then Monte Carlo them like TIA, you are essentially running a Martingale strategy, insisting that if so many people voted for X, then a smaller sample will show the same percentage of people also voted for X. -- Wronggidy-wrongiddy, wrong-o.

BTW - If you do decide to use the Martingale the next time you play roulette, just remember this...Casinos allow you to do this because eventually you will lose everything if you don't stop. And most players don't, they play until they run out of money, or realize they can't cover their own bets anymore and pull out with less than they started with.

[Ballygrl]

no chance people lie about how they voted? how many videos have we seen where Union thugs beat people up?

[Ballygrl]

If you came out of the polls, and saw some freak with a neck tattoo and a ring in his nose,
carrying a clipboard, would you walk toward him, or the other direction?

Exactly! and how many people would feel as though they're being intimidated by the left?

[Ballygrl]

PeaceNikki  Donating Member  (1000+ posts) Sun Aug-14-11 01:55 PM
Response to Original message
1. You forgot this part
   
"It is important to understand, however, that these polls could not be designed to control for response bias—a possible differential willingness to respond of Republican vs. Democratic voters. Therefore, the disparities presented in our polls could be the result of 1) Computerized mistabulation (i.e., rigging); 2) Response bias; or 3) Both. We simply have no way of knowing for sure.

When a voter refuses to respond to our poll, we cannot know and adjust for the partisanship of that voter, so we cannot claim that our poll is a representative sample of the voters. To construct such a poll—the kind many are familiar with that is commissioned by the major media and appears on network websites along with the returns in November—requires vastly more data, resources, and funding than we have at our disposal. Our polls were designed for a comparison of raw numbers, not percentages, and in certain circumstances, not achieved here, would be strongly probative stand-alone red flags."

PeaceNikki  Donating Member  (1000+ posts) Sun Aug-14-11 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #35
36. Indeed, and likewise, there is no evidence of fraud. None. Not now and not in the SC race.
   
Edited on Sun Aug-14-11 03:33 PM by PeaceNikki
I wish there was. I SO wanted there to be and I watched both so very closely hoping I'd see it.

We need to keep watching, keep the pressure on, but most of all - get out and vote.

a simple pattern  (102 posts) Sun Aug-14-11 03:37 PM
Response to Original message
38. Why can't the counting of each precinct be broadcast live?
   
Why can't we all be poll watchers?

how many months would that take?

[miskie]

PeaceNikki is blasting the 'Stolen !!11!!!' Meme ? --

She is asking for trouble..   

[Ballygrl]

PeaceNikki is blasting the 'Stolen !!11!!!' Meme ? --

She is asking for trouble..   

She's actually been great on the threads talking about election fraud in Wisconsin going back to the Supreme Court election.

[Delmar]

I used to think that PeaceNikki was a mole.  People here claim she isn't.  But I think that she just needs one ugly incident to push her over the edge and convert her over to a Republican--kinda like David Horowitz.  The abuse she takes from the Dummies is something.

[Ballygrl]

I used to think that PeaceNikki was a mole.  People here claim she isn't.  But I think that she just needs one ugly incident to push her over the edge and convert her over to a Republican--kinda like David Horowitz.  The abuse she takes from the Dummies is something.

It's sad that we think the common sense posts are always moles, that says a lot.

[Splashdown]

Imajika (1000+ posts)
55. ..or we just didn't do as well as we hoped.
 
The silly notion that so many people seem to have that imagines the right wingers couldn't possibly beat us or don't know how to GOTV themselves is absolutely absurd.

This country isn't exactly a paragon of progressive thought, and these Wisconsin districts the recalls took place in were very red. We're not exactly in an environment where liberal ideology is in ascendancy considering the Teabagger victories just a few short months ago.

This nation is, at best, very centrist.

ALERT ALERT !!!!!!1111oneone! 

[DumbAss Tanker]

TIA, there's a call on the MoonBatPhone for you!!!

 

[RWKindaGuy]

TIA, there's a call on the MoonBatPhone for you!!!

 

Yes, by all means.  Pick up on the blue moonbat courtesy phone.

[miskie]

I'm sure he will, and soon there will be a spreadsheet proving fraud beyond any reasonable doubt -even though his "Mathemagical Thinking" is flawed.

[JohnnyReb]

I'm sure the union members would be very truthful about how they voted against "Their own best interest."

[Big Don]

Citizen exit polls

Citizen? Oh, well, there you go, if you only let those legally able to vote, the idiots, er, libs can't win

[FiddyBeowulf]

I used to think that PeaceNikki was a mole.  People here claim she isn't.  But I think that she just needs one ugly incident to push her over the edge and convert her over to a Republican--kinda like David Horowitz.  The abuse she takes from the Dummies is something.

I almost feel sorry for her. She keeps explaining there was no fraud and no evidense of fraud but because the DUmmies' did not get the result they were expecting it must be fraud. In post after post she repeats that but it just does not sink in. At times I think she should change her avatar to this --> or this --->

[DumbAss Tanker]

Citizen? Oh, well, there you go, if you only let those legally able to vote, the idiots, er, libs can't win

In this case, I'm sure 'Citizen exit polls' means polls taken Leftist busybodies with no credentials or training who appointed themselves to buttonhole people leaving the polling places, who were more likely to ask people who looked like themselves in the first place, and who were more likely to be blown off - or just lied to - by the GOP voters because they looked creepy and smelled bad.

[NHSparky]

Yup, pretty much, DAT--people who can't balance their own checkbooks are now all of a sudden experts at random sampling, null sets, and statistical analysis?

[BlueStateSaint]

In this case, I'm sure 'Citizen exit polls' means polls taken Leftist busybodies with no credentials or training who appointed themselves to buttonhole people leaving the polling places, who were more likely to ask people who looked like themselves in the first place, and who were more likely to be blown off - or just lied to - by the GOP voters because they looked creepy and smelled bad.

This I wouldn't doubt in the least.

[Wineslob]

Pollster to Liberal voter:  "Who did you vote for?" Liberal voter: " I voted for Progressive, Democratic, issues! YA YA YA YA!

Conservative voter response: "It's none of your business".

[thundley4]

The liberal poll takers could be deliberately skewing the results. The only ask the people that are black or otherwise fit the stereotype of liberals so that they get more responses claiming dem votes.

[Chris_]

I've never spoken to a poll taker.  Not once.

I guess I don't look like a maggot-infested hippie or a DUmmy.

[DumbAss Tanker]

I've never spoken to a poll taker.  Not once.

I guess I don't look like a maggot-infested hippie or a DUmmy.

A good thing, all in all.