hillary is winning the late deciders consistently now; I assume that means that The BarackStar! is
now a known commodity, and that is usually followed by a candidates peak, or "high water mark" . . . .
EXIT POLLS: Negative Campaign Tarnishes Clinton, Obama
Few Last-Minute Deciders in Pennsylvania Primary
The tough tone of the Pennsylvania Democratic campaign tarnished both candidates -- more so Hillary Clinton, with 67 percent of voters saying she attacked Barack Obama unfairly.
Yet it looks to have worked: Late deciders favored Clinton by a wide margin, boosting her to an essential victory in the state.
Late Deciders, Women Favor Clinton
Clinton beat Obama by 57-42 percent among voters who decided in the last few days, countering his equally large edge among those who picked their candidate between a week and a month ago. It was the sixth primary in a row in which she won late-choosing voters.
Other support groups were crucial for Clinton: Women accounted for 58 percent of voters, a record for Pennsylvania primaries (though about what it's been elsewhere this year), and she won them by 56-44 percent; she won white women even more broadly, by 64-36 percent.
Clinton again won seniors, this time by 60-39 percent. And she won voters who haven't been through college by a bigger-than-usual 57-43 percent margin.
Philly Shows Obama Love
Obama countered with enormous support in Philadelphia (70-30 percent over Clinton) and its suburbs (59-40 percent) and a 7-point better showing among white men, a swing group in these primaries, than he managed in Ohio, which Clinton won March 4.
Obama won men overall, 53-46 percent, and lost white men by a fairly narrow 7 points.
Obama also won 92 percent of African-Americans, nearly his best in any primary to date. But at 13 percent, their turnout was lower than the Pennsylvania primary record, 17 percent in 1988 and 1984.
In a difference from supposedly similar Ohio, 47 percent of Pennsylvania voters were college graduates -- a consistently better group for Obama -- compared with just 38 percent in Ohio. But he won them by only 5 points, compared to his 9-point advantage in this group in primaries to date.
And another difference strongly favored Clinton: White Catholics accounted for an unusually large share of voters -- 31 percent, vs. 16 percent in previous primaries this year -- and they favored her by a wide 70-30 percent, a gap that's appeared in some but not most previous contests.
One reason is that white Catholics in Pennsylvania were less apt to hold college degrees -- again reflecting Clinton's better showing among less-educated voters.
Bitter Race Damages Both Candidates
While two-thirds of voters said Clinton attacked Obama unfairly, fewer but 49 percent also said Obama unfairly attacked Clinton. Both were higher than in previous primaries overall -- by 15 points for Clinton and 11 for Obama -- reflecting the negative tone of the campaign's closing days.
However, voters who said Obama attacked unfairly were more apt to punish him for it -- Clinton won those voters by 65-34 percent; of those who said Clinton attacked unfairly, Obama won by a narrower 57-43 percent.
For many voters, moreover, it didn't matter; more than usual decided early.
Sixty-one percent said they picked their candidate more than a month ago, compared with 45 percent in previous primaries this year. Yet as noted, those who did decide late went for Clinton, breaking a near-draw among those who decided in the previous week.
These results are based on complete but unweighted exit poll data; the final numbers may change somewhat.
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