In addition to the states McCain won, Obama loses:
New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, New Mexico.
This will leave him approximately 20+ votes short of the 270 needed to be re-elected.
Note: If Romney is the nominee, I expect Obama to lose Michigan as well. That would bring
him down to the mid 230's in electoral votes.
I'm not considering momentum. This kind of loss could start a steamrolling effect.
It's possible he could lose states like Pennsylvania (-21) and Minnesota (-10) as well.
I predict Obama finishes with under 250 electoral votes. But I'm assuming a strong GOP candidate,
Romney, Huckabee, maybe Trump, maybe a candidate as yet unknown, Rick Perry?
Note: I still half-way expect Obama to announce he won't run for re-election. I'm probably wrong. But it's just a feeling I've had for a long time.