Noted U.S. hurricane forecaster expects busy season

[Wretched Excess]

Noted U.S. hurricane forecaster expects busy season

The noted Colorado State University forecast team expects an above average Atlantic hurricane season and may raise its prediction of 13 tropical storms and seven hurricanes when it updates its outlook next week, the team's founder Bill Gray said on Wednesday.

La Nina cool-water conditions in the Pacific and higher sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic are contributing to enhanced conditions for hurricane activity, Gray told Reuters at the U.S. National Hurricane Conference.

"We're expecting an above average season," Gray said. "The big question we have is, are we going to raise the numbers from our December forecast? We might."

"We're not going to lower the numbers," he said.

The average hurricane season produces about 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes -- a standard that was blown out of the water in the record-busting season of 2005, when 28 storms formed, including the hurricane that swamped New Orleans, Katrina.

The Colorado State team issues forecasts several times a year. In December, it said it expected the 2008 season starting June 1 to produce 13 tropical storms, of which seven would become hurricanes and three would be major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour).

Gray said La Nina, a cooling of waters in the eastern Pacific that can enhance conditions for hurricane activity in the Atlantic, will be "on the cold side."

"Also, the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic particularly off Iberia and off northwest Africa, they are very warm, much like they were at this time in 1995 and 2005 when we had very active seasons," he said.

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ruh, roh.  we're doomed again.

[Lord Undies]

Oh, I see.  The same prediction they had for 2006 and 2007.  What's the point?  Maybe they will be right one year?

This contradicts what I read in February about how the El Nina effect would most likely cause a reduction in tropical storms this year.

[djones520]

It's possible.  Last year really was quiet due to El Nino conditions.  The opposite is going around now, and Atlantic waters should be slighty warmer, which will help enhance the instability required drive these things.

So I'm not discounting this just yet.

[Rebel]

It's possible.  Last year really was quiet due to El Nino conditions.  The opposite is going around now, and Atlantic waters should be slighty warmer, which will help enhance the instability required drive these things.

So I'm not discounting this just yet.

I am. Could it be? Of course. However, these predictions have been made for the pst two years. It's beginning to become like the Boy who cried Wolf. No doubt it could happen, but these predictions are turning out to be bullshit.

[djones520]

Actually, I'd like to retract that.  Had my thinking backwards.  My professional opinion on the matter is that this guy has no ****ing clue in what he's talking about.

JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) believes that La Nina will weaken during the spring, since the western pacific waters are a bit warmer then usual.  Their expected to migrate to the east, and weaken the effects of La Nina.  That happening will weaken the effects that it has on the Atlantic, there by hurting it's chances to enhance the hurricane season.

[LC EFA]

I live in a place that is at risk of cyclones.

Every year without fail, at least one douche will get in front of a camera a few times and proclaim that there's going to be HEAPS of KILLER CYCLONES, MORE than EVER before, in the following season.

They are never right.

If I took their word for it, by now, we'd be getting a new KILLER cyclone every week in the season.

[djones520]

I wish it was easier to find the basis for these guys forecasts.  I'd love to analyze the reasoning behind this one.

[Chris_]

I live in a place that is at risk of cyclones.

Every year without fail, at least one douche will get in front of a camera a few times and proclaim that there's going to be HEAPS of KILLER CYCLONES, MORE than EVER before, in the following season.

They are never right.

If I took their word for it, by now, we'd be getting a new KILLER cyclone every week in the season.

I love hurricane season.  You can always tell who the FNG's and rookies are at the news and weather stations, because they're the first ones to get sent out with a camera to do the "live" reports.

I remember watching the coverage for Katrina when it was crossing over FL.  Some shmuck was pointing at a dent on a car as evidence of "debris".  While he had his hand out, a large, flat piece of metal goes whizzing by and almost takes his hand off.  

[Wretched Excess]

I live in a place that is at risk of cyclones.

Every year without fail, at least one douche will get in front of a camera a few times and proclaim that there's going to be HEAPS of KILLER CYCLONES, MORE than EVER before, in the following season.

They are never right.

If I took their word for it, by now, we'd be getting a new KILLER cyclone every week in the season.

I love hurricane season.  You can always tell who the FNG's and rookies are at the news and weather stations, because they're the first ones to get sent out with a camera to do the "live" reports.

I remember watching the coverage for Katrina when it was crossing over FL.  Some shmuck was pointing at a dent on a car as evidence of "debris".  While he had his hand out, a large, flat piece of metal goes whizzing by and almost takes his hand off.   

a TV newschick was sent out to the beach when we had a hurricane offshore several years ago;  during her report, she gestured emphatically at the waves washing ashore as evidence of our impending peril, and said, "the waves, they just keep coming, and coming . . . . ".  they looked like pretty normal waves to me, although, to her credit, it was raining fairly hard.

I would have thought that it would have been much more newsworthy if they had stopped.

[Duke Nukum]

It's weird how climatologists are like psychics.  Just make a whole lot of predictions and celebrate the 2 or 3 that come true.  Except psychics seem more honest overall.

I've always felt there was a streak of pseudoscience in science.

 

[LC EFA]

Last decent cyclone to come near the town I live in passed 100km or so to the south, with the mundane title of Larry (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Cyclone_Larry)

It did plenty of damage in the immediate path, but I didn't even have to dirty my chainsaw.

The cyclone "forecast specialists" had predicted at 5 or so like that in that year, and yet when the next season rolls around it's "More than last year".

So far not one this year and the season is nearly over. (Touch wood)

[DumbAss Tanker]

Oh, I see.  The same prediction they had for 2006 and 2007.  What's the point?  Maybe they will be right one year?

Yes, basically.  Sooner or later there has to be a year with more hurricanes than the norm, so they will be 'vindicated' and all the horrible effects of Global Warming will be 'proven.'

[NHSparky]

I live in a place that is at risk of cyclones.

Every year without fail, at least one douche will get in front of a camera a few times and proclaim that there's going to be HEAPS of KILLER CYCLONES, MORE than EVER before, in the following season.

They are never right.

If I took their word for it, by now, we'd be getting a new KILLER cyclone every week in the season.

Where were these asshats in 1992 when I was stationed in Guam?  SIX typhoons in seven WEEKS, including Typhoon Omar.

[Texacon]

It's weird how climatologists are like psychics.  Just make a whole lot of predictions and celebrate the 2 or 3 that come true.  Except psychics seem more honest overall.

I've always felt there was a streak of pseudoscience in science.

 

No, that can't be possible.  Scientists know everything ... absolutely everything, just ask a DUmmie.  Why, here is one scientific explanation of something right now!

One of the most elusive questions in science has finally been answered: How do bees fly? Although the issue is not as profound as how the universe began or what kick-started life on earth, the physics of bee flight has perplexed scientists for more than 70 years. In 1934, in fact, French entomologist August Magnan and his assistant André Sainte-Lague calculated that bee flight was aerodynamically impossible. The haphazard flapping of their wings simply shouldn't keep the hefty bugs aloft.

And yet, bees most certainly fly, and the dichotomy between prediction and reality has been used for decades to needle scientists and engineers about their inability to explain complex biological processes

   

KC

[Crazy Horse]

 


 

 

[Ptarmigan]

Since we are in La Nina and it forecasted to stay into the summer, expect a more active season. Past La Nina seasons were active in terms of storm formations and hurricanes. My forecast is 16 storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

[Chris_]

It's possible.  Last year really was quiet due to El Nino conditions.  The opposite is going around now, and Atlantic waters should be slighty warmer, which will help enhance the instability required drive these things.

So I'm not discounting this just yet.

I am. Could it be? Of course. However, these predictions have been made for the pst two years. It's beginning to become like the Boy who cried Wolf. No doubt it could happen, but these predictions are turning out to be bullshit.

Even a busted clock is right twice a day.  They're just playing the same odds.  Eventually they will be right.