The Latest ObamaCoup Whip Count

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

opleez-opleez-opleez

At least 25 House Democrats will reject the healthcare reform legislation, according to a survey by The Hill, a review of other media reports and interviews with lawmakers, aides and lobbyists. Dozens of House Democrats are undecided or won't comment on their position on the measure.

The 25 opposed include firm "no" votes and members who are likely "no" votes. Most Democrats on The Hill's whip list are definitely going to vote no, but others, such as Reps. Lincoln Davis (Tenn.) and Harry Teague (N.M.), could vote yes.

However, The Hill has not yet put Democrats who are insisting on Rep. Bart Stupak's (D-Mich.) language on abortion in the "no" category. Stupak has said there are 12 Democrats who supported the House bill in November who will vote no unless his anti-abortion-rights measure is melded into the final bill.

If leadership doesn't make changes to the abortion language and Stupak does indeed have 12 votes in his pocket, it will be very difficult to pass a bill. Yet if they do change the provisions, supporters of abortion rights in the House will threaten to vote no.

The Hill's list does not include members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, who are threatening to vote no unless changes are made to the bill's immigration-related provisions. Most on Capitol Hill believe that language will not be changed and that most members of the CHC will still back the final measure.

With all Republicans expected to reject the bill, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) needs to minimize defections. Thirty-nine Democrats voted against the House healthcare bill that passed 220-215 last November.

But the landscape has shifted a bit since last year with Rep. Parker Griffith's (R-Ala.) decision to leave the Democratic Party and four House vacancies. Rep. Joseph Cao (R-La.), who backed the bill last time, will vote no unless the final bill contains changes on abortion-related provisions.

Assuming every member votes, Democratic leaders could not afford more than 37 defectors, which would lead to a 216-215 tally.

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/86193-house-dem-no-votes-on-healthcare-reform-pile-up

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

AoSHQ has an interesting take:

It gets a little worse, tool as noted by Drew: Hispanic Representatives are now agitating for the fixes to include a more generous treatment of illegal immigrants, permitting them to buy into the "health care exchanges." And they say now they'll vote against a plan that doesn't include that.


This is over-speculating, but, if a bill is doomed anyway, then each Congressmen is freed up to make maximalist demands that will please his constituents -- it's cost free, after all. The bill is doomed, so there's no real cost as far as hurting its chances of passage; might as well show off for your partisans and special interests.

So the Hispanic caucus making an 11th hour demand might indicate they're all pretty convinced this is going to fail.

He goes on to note via correction the HC has never liked the senate bill but their timing for a vocal pushback couldn't be worse for this already teetering effort.

[thundley4]

Lord Zero promised that illegals would not be covered. 

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

Lord Zero promised that illegals would not be covered. 

You lie!