If The Bellwethers Are Really Bellwethers, This Might Not Be Close

[formerlurker]

If The Bellwethers Are Really Bellwethers, This Might Not Be Close

Wow. Here are those three bellwhether community polls by Suffolk University that Chris Matthews was talking about:

Bellwether polling, conducted Saturday, Jan. 16, and Sunday, Jan. 17, shows:

Brown (55%) leads Coakley (40%) by 15 points in Gardner. Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy polls 2%, while 3% are undecided.

In Fitchburg, Brown (55%) has a 14-point lead over Coakley (41%), with 2% for Kennedy and 2% undecided.

Peabody voters give Brown (57%), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40%), with Kennedy polling 1% and 3% undecided.

The bellwether polls are designed to predict outcomes and not margins. Suffolk's bellwether polls have been 96% accurate in picking straight-up winners when taken within three days of an election since 2006.

I wouldn't blame any Coakley supporters if they saw these numbers and started quoting Hudson from Aliens: "Game over, man, game over!"

UPDATE: Here's what these bellwethers said in the primary: "The latest poll looked at three bellwether communities in Massachusetts that historically signal how the statewide vote will go. For the Democratic primary, the poll shows Attorney General Martha Coakley with a 14 percent lead over Congressman Michael Capuano. Steven Pagliuca is third, and Alan Khazei fourth."

Suffolk's three bellwhethers split Coakley 39, Capunao 25, Pagliuca 16, Khazei 7.

On Primary Day, Coakley won with 47 percent, Capuano had 28 percent, Khazei had 13 percent, and Pagliuca had 12 percent.

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/

[DumbAss Tanker]

Hope it turns out that way, but everything about this race since Brown started to march upwards has screamed that it's a statistical outlier, I wouldn't put the normal credence in a bellwether on this one.

[miskie]

Hope it turns out that way, but everything about this race since Brown started to march upwards has screamed that it's a statistical outlier, I wouldn't put the normal credence in a bellwether on this one.

look instead at the trends at RCP --

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ma/massachusetts_senate_special_election-1144.html 

The only outlier in recent polling is a tied result - and that poll was brought to us by KOS.. I know it can all still fall away, especially since we are in Massachusetts where the Dems run everything - but its hard to not get fired up looking at those numbers.

[Splashdown]

Here's hoping that MA voters run up the score tomorrow. I might even watch Chris Matthews tomorrow night!

[formerlurker]

Here's hoping that MA voters run up the score tomorrow. I might even watch Chris Matthews tomorrow night!

OMG if Brown pulls off a win then the Chrissy-pissy Matthews show will be must see television!   

[Texacon]

If I was a democrat and I saw those numbers .... coupled with the weather report .... I think I would just stay home.

KC

[The Village Idiot]

the close ones are the outliers now.

The fraudulant votes could make it close though

[DumbAss Tanker]

look instead at the trends at RCP --

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ma/massachusetts_senate_special_election-1144.html 

The only outlier in recent polling is a tied result - and that poll was brought to us by KOS.. I know it can all still fall away, especially since we are in Massachusetts where the Dems run everything - but its hard to not get fired up looking at those numbers.

I was not talking about a poll being an outlier, I was talking about this entire election being outside the paradigm that the so-called 'Bellwethers' have as a track record.

[miskie]

I was not talking about a poll being an outlier, I was talking about this entire election being outside the paradigm that the so-called 'Bellwethers' have as a track record.

Ahh, My mistake -