Hi,
I wish I had not deleted a Stratfor report I got this week. Their take is that Iran is a real problem and BO is caught. Sooner or later Israel is going to have to take action to protect themselves and, like it or not, the US is going to get involved. They are scared (Pelosi)-less that Israel will indeed just bomb Iran because they know Israel can pull it off but they do not have the means to sustain a war and the US will get drawn in. Of course it will be because of inaction on the part of the US to begin with.
Personally I say the sooner the better, let the games begin, it is gonna happen anyway.
regards,
5412
That is inevitable, as you point out. The simple, blunt fact of the matter is that as long as the anti-semitic strains of the old Iranian Revolution still control the levers of power in Tehran - and they will for quite a while, yet - Iran will constitute a so-called existential threat to Israel, and the severity of that threat will simply grow the closer and closer Iran gets to a functioning nuclear weapon (they don't even need one that can be mounted on a missile, all they need is one that can be flown on a one-way mission from Tehran to the borders of Israel and detonated).
That means that Israel simply cannot - if it wishes to continue to exist in any way, shape, or form - permit the Iranians to complete the construction of such a functioning nuclear device. Since neither the US, the Western allies, nor Iran's two enablers, Russia and China, will restrain the development of Iran's nuclear weapons, that means that Israel has no one other than itself to look to for protection against the existential threat posed by Iran. Since Israel cannot prevent that development through peaceful means, that means that, inevitably, Israel will have to use military force - enough bombs that can penetrate deeply enough to strike at Iran's crucial buried facilities.
Worse yet, the more time that passes before Israel strikes, the more likely it becomes that Israel will have to use its own nuclear weapons to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capabilities, by converting some of its weapons into so-called
nuclear bunker-busters. In fact, as I think of it, I speculate that perhaps the apparent delay in Israel's ultimate attack on Iran may, in fact, have to do with their converting, rapidly and secretly - the US must be regarded by them as a hostile enemy nation right now - some of their nuclear warheads into bunker busters.
At any rate, I daresay that we shall know, sooner or later, how Israel intends to prevent its own destruction at the hands of Iran. Furthermore, if the Democrats do not want an Israeli-Iran war - possibly a nuclear exchange - permanently preventing their re-election in 2010 or beyond, they would be doing a lot more public ass-kissing of Israel, and a lot less of this toothless Bad Cop nonsense from Rahm. Mr. Emanuel seems to have forgotten that the Israelis know how to survive existential threats; they surviverd the Nazis and Auschwitz, after all, and that is permanently burned into the country's institutional memory.