primitives speculate on 2010 elections

[franksolich]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x107726

Oh my.

jtylerpittman  (79 posts)        Sat Jan-02-10 03:21 PM
Original message
 
Poll question: What do you think the results of the 2010 house elections will be?

Poll result (84 votes) 

GOP gains 50+  (6 votes, 7%)
GOP gains 40+  (2 votes, 2%) 
GOP gains 30+  (14 votes, 17%) 
GOP gains 20+  (8 votes, 10%) 
GOP gains 10+  (10 votes, 12%) 
Small GOP gains  (30 votes, 36%)
Small Democratic gains  (10 votes, 12%) 
Democrats gain 10+  (3 votes, 4%) 
Democrats gain 20+  (1 votes, 1%)

I dunno.

We'll see.

November's a ways away yet.

jtylerpittman  (79 posts)        Sat Jan-02-10 03:22 PM
Response to Original message
 
1. I say we have moderate losses mostly blue dog and southern seats

Sebastian Doyle  (1000+ posts)      Sat Jan-02-10 04:35 PM
Response to Reply #1
 
11. All the more reason to take them out in the primaries.

It will definitely be the "anti-incumbent" year. So if the incumbent "Democrat" deserves to lose, let them lose early to someone who can do better, rather than in November to a 'Puke who can do slightly worse.

baldguy  (1000+ posts)      Sat Jan-02-10 03:31 PM
Response to Original message
 
2. Congress isn't popular not because they're too liberal.

But because they're NOT LIBERAL ENOUGH!

We'll have more like Alan Grayson, and fewer like Zell Miller.

The hirsute-challenged primitive must be on some good weed there.

tritsofme (1000+ posts)        Sat Jan-02-10 04:19 PM
Response to Reply #2
 
10. If I had to make one specific prediction about a congressional race, I see Grayson losing by a huge margin in 2010.

However in general I would say you are correct, it is the frontline moderate members whose seats are in most danger.

FrenchieCat  (1000+ posts)        Sat Jan-02-10 03:37 PM
#15 TOP PRIMITIVE OF 2009
Response to Original message

3. Whatever it is, if we keep repeating it, it will ultimately come true......

We are projecting losses, and therefore that is what we will have.

Where I come from it's called self fulfilling prophecy.

I refuse to be part of that political speculation game....because I think that between the Media and the GOP, there are more than enough that wishes a negative outcome for the Democratic party.

Why should I participate.....at guessing, when I should be working for the exact opposite.

levander (148 posts)      Sat Jan-02-10 03:55 PM
Response to Reply #3
 
6. You live in a fairy tale.

FrenchieCat  (1000+ posts)        Sun Jan-03-10 02:20 PM
#15 TOP PRIMITIVE OF 2009
Response to Reply #6
 
21. Is that so? And who are you to decide? Someone special sent from above?

vi5 (1000+ posts)     Sat Jan-02-10 03:39 PM
Response to Original message
 
4. If the dems lose seats....

..inevitably the message that they will take away both through the media repeating it, and the actual dems in congress who live in that very same pathetic vacuum and talking points mill will be that they weren't conservative enough and that they tried too hard to push a liberal agenda.

Never mind that every piece of polling data will say the opposite and that liberal dem turnout will be dismal and that will cost the dems seats. Facts never get in the way of the village media narrative.

quakerboy  (1000+ posts)      Sat Jan-02-10 04:39 PM
Response to Reply #4
 
12. Its a lose lose, aint it

If they lose seats, the message the party power structure will take is "you were to liberal, tone it down"

IF they hold or gain seats the message the party power structure will take is "see, tacking conservative works, do it some more"

stray cat  (1000+ posts)     Sat Jan-02-10 03:49 PM
Response to Original message
 
5. If DU is a measure of dem enthusiasm - heavy losses for dems0

Parker CA  (1000+ posts)        Sat Jan-02-10 03:59 PM
Response to Reply #5
 
7. Or the Kos post someone linked that shows 45% of dems are very unlikely or certain to not vote.

Sad stuff. I for one will never sit out and pass on voting.

quiller4 (1000+ posts)      Sat Jan-02-10 06:35 PM
Response to Reply #5
 
13. DU isn't really a measure of anything but DU. I expect small GOP gains mostly in the south but possible also in some purple districts in the west and midwest.

backscatter712  (1000+ posts)      Sun Jan-03-10 12:25 PM
Response to Reply #5
 
17. DU is not the Democratic Party.

DU is composed of Democrats, but most Democrats are not members of DU, and the average demographics of the Democratic Party in general and the liberal blogs/forums differ by quite a bit.

ZombieHorde  (1000+ posts)      Sat Jan-02-10 04:16 PM
Response to Original message
 
8. I have no idea, but you may have fun bookmarking this poll and then seeing how close we were after the election.

tritsofme (1000+ posts)        Sat Jan-02-10 04:16 PM
Response to Original message
 
9. My guess is that the GOP picks up 30-35 and scrambles to flip a few more Dems to build a majority.

No prediction on their success in that effort.

IndianaGreen  (1000+ posts)        Sat Jan-02-10 06:44 PM
Response to Original message
 
14. Small GOP gains

which is what normally happens in midterm elections. We lose some Blue Dogs to people not afraid to say they are Republicans. No difference to the voters in those districts.

Zynx  (1000+ posts)        Sat Jan-02-10 06:49 PM
Response to Original message
 
15. GOP gains 17 seats on net.

We gain 4-5 of theirs. They knock off 21 or so of ours.

backscatter712  (1000+ posts)      Sun Jan-03-10 12:23 PM
Response to Original message
 
16. The GOP will gain a few, but they won't take the majority.

Realistically, I think the teeth-gnashing and hair-pulling will die down once the health care bill is signed, the economy will start showing more signs of improvement, and the GOP most importantly will not be able to capitalize - they're good at fear-mongering and shitting on Democrats, but after eight years of Bush, and a further year of playing Party of No, they're not going to convince a huge number of people outside of teabaggers that they have policies that make sense.

A few Southern DINOs may lose their seats, but Pelosi will remain Speaker of the House. I think all the hoopla about the GOP pulling a repeat of '94 is exaggerated.

Blasphemer  (1000+ posts)      Sun Jan-03-10 12:46 PM
Response to Original message
 
18. GOP either takes over the house or comes close to it.

Proud Liberal Dem (1000+ posts)        Sun Jan-03-10 01:57 PM
Response to Original message
 
19. GOP will make some small gains and Dems will have fewer seats

but it is HIGHLY doubtful that Boehner, Cantor, et. al will be running the House next year no matter how much they try to demonize Nancy Pelosi (which they already tried to do in 2006 and again last year and it didn't work- just face it, no matter how much the Repubs dislike Pelosi, she is simply NOT as easy for them to demonize as Bill and Hillary were during Clinton's Presidency).

It will be interesting to see what will happen next year. The Dems are having problems but so are the Republicans. The best thing that can happen is that the "teabaggers" will contest a lot of the Republican primaries or, even better, run as a third party- weakening the GOP candidates in the GE. As long as we get a modest turnout, we should, theoretically, be able to keep our losses light.

1994 will not IMHO be the kind of GOP "tidal wave" that they are clearly hoping it will be but we'll have to see what happens, of course.

Independent_Voice (197 posts)      Sun Jan-03-10 02:04 PM
Response to Original message
 
20. I'm calling it right now...

GOP picks up 8 seats in the House. A net gain of only +1 in the Senate.

Well, we'll see.

November's a ways away yet.

[Carl]

baldguy  (1000+ posts)      Sat Jan-02-10 03:31 PM
Response to Original message
 
2. Congress isn't popular not because they're too liberal.

But because they're NOT LIBERAL ENOUGH!

We'll have more like Alan Grayson, and fewer like Zell Miller.

 

[The Village Idiot]

If they give us RINO candidates, the GOP could actually LOSE seats.

I doubt it will be that bad though

[ColonialMarine0431]

baldguy  (1000+ posts)      Sat Jan-02-10 03:31 PM
Response to Original message
 
2. Congress isn't popular not because they're too liberal.

But because they're NOT LIBERAL ENOUGH!

We'll have more like Alan Grayson, and fewer like Zell Miller.

Dude. Seriously. Put down the crack pipe. 

[thundley4]

vi5 (1000+ posts)     Sat Jan-02-10 03:39 PM
Response to Original message
 
4. If the dems lose seats....

..inevitably the message that they will take away both through the media repeating it, and the actual dems in congress who live in that very same pathetic vacuum and talking points mill will be that they weren't conservative enough and that they tried too hard to push a liberal agenda.

Never mind that every piece of polling data will say the opposite and that liberal dem turnout will be dismal and that will cost the dems seats. Facts never get in the way of the village media narrative.

The V05 hairspray primitive needs to post a link, even just one that backs their claim.

[BlueStateSaint]

To lurkers here--If the Dems actually do push through a HC"R," I'd put the over/under on Dem losses in the House at 115.  And, I'll take the "over."  In the Senate, I'd put the o/u at 11, and take the "over" there, too.  If the Dems think that the public won't remember the health care "reform" crap by midsummer and not at all in November, think again.  For example, the Tea Partiers are planning two tours this year.  Sean Hannity's Freedom Concerts will be hitting the largest number of cities they've ever been to.  There will be more and more people getting the message, and the tax bills, every day.  Oh--I'm sure that word of the expiration of the Bush tax cuts will get out, and more moderates will see that their hard-earned money is going to prop up corrupt unions such as the Purple People Beaters (SEIU) and the UAW.

And they'll remember.  Both on November 2nd of this year, and November 6th of 2012.

[Chris_]

baldguy  (1000+ posts)      Sat Jan-02-10 03:31 PM
Response to Original message
 
2. Congress isn't popular not because they're too liberal.

But because they're NOT LIBERAL ENOUGH!

We'll have more like Alan Grayson, and fewer like Zell Miller.

  That probably works in real life too. If you were to touch a hot stove it wouldn't be burning you because you were touching it. It would be burning you because you weren't touching it enough.

Hey! Maybe the spooky cinder block experiment idiot could test out that theory.

[Splashdown]

Obviously the voters in that poll forgot that there are two major assets on our side...

Karl Rove..

Diebold!


Mua haa haaaaaaaa!

 

[crockspot]

Denial is a river on skin's island.

[DumbAss Tanker]

tritsofme (1000+ posts)        Sat Jan-02-10 04:19 PM
Response to Reply #2
 
10. If I had to make one specific prediction about a congressional race, I see Grayson losing by a huge margin in 2010.

However in general I would say you are correct, it is the frontline moderate members whose seats are in most danger.

You idiot, they are in the most danger, but it sure as Hell is not because they are insufficiently far Left, it's because they represent Centrist or Right-leaning districts, and their constituencies are fed up with the Leftist BS.

[AllosaursRus]

What part of "Never Never Land" do these idiots live in? Oh, I know, "Uranus"!!!!!!!!