Could Oregon and Wa. State go Red in the Fall?

[Lauri]

Will Hillary Clinton help Dino Rossi?
By Knute Berger

Washington state Republicans have been looking for circumstances to assist Dino Rossi in his bid to unseat Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire this year. Some believe the slowing economy will favor the GOP by highlighting excessive state spending and high taxes. Another hope: that Hillary Clinton heads the national Democratic ticket. Why? Because, they believe, a Clinton candidacy will put Washington in play with John McCain as the Republican nominee. A new survey shows that they have a case for the latter hope. In fact, the results show that Washington and Oregon could both turn red in the fall.

A 50-state poll by SurveyUSA looks at the two likely match-ups against McCain, who locked up enough delegates for the GOP nomination this week. The first pairs him head-to head with Sen. Barack Obama. In that contest, Obama wins the presidency and takes both Washington and Oregon. Obama beats McCain 53% to 38% in Washington, and 49% to 41% in Oregon.

In a match-up with Clinton, the former First Lady still ekes out a national victory. She picks up some states (like Pennsylvania) but loses Washington and Oregon. McCain beats Hillary 46% to 44% in Washington and by a larger margin of 48% to 43% in Oregon.

A strong run by McCain could help Rossi, who essentially tied Gregoire in 2004 even as John Kerry took the state. If Washington is in play, it will receive national money and attention. Washington's electorate is independent and despite its blue reputation, many voters, as the survey suggests, are really purple.

In addition, Gregoire — who, like Mossback, has endorsed Obama — matches better with him on the stump. During the Illinois senator's recent Seattle visit, Gregoire seemed to glow on stage. He would be a boost to her. Clinton, on the other hand, might remind people of Gregoire's less attractive characteristics, namely that she's a lawyerly government insider. That image plays right into Rossi's hands.

Knute Berger is Mossback, Crosscut's chief Northwest native. He also writes the monthly Gray Matters column for Seattle magazine and is a weekly Friday guest on Weekday on KUOW-FM (94.9). You can e-mail him at mossback@crosscut.com.

keep in mind this is a leftie blog ... http://www.crosscut.com/mossback/12332/Will+Hillary+Clinton+help+Dino+Rossi/

[Wretched Excess]

I saw a washington poll that had mccain leading The BarackStar! and hillary by several points.  rather amazing, considering the nonstop media play that the dem race has been getting.

[NHSparky]

For those of you who used to frequent RN, I spoke with BillW the other night.  We had a quick discussion regarding the election (neither of us is wild about McCain), but he did pique my interest on one thing--if there really is a fracture in the Dem party in Denver and it DOES turn violent, look for McCain to win in a landslide.

[NHSparky]

I saw a washington poll that had mccain leading The BarackStar! and hillary by several points.  rather amazing, considering the nonstop media play that the dem race has been getting.

Also, consider this--aside from (MAYBE) Ohio, is there a state that Bush won in 2004 that Hillary or Obama could turn in 2008?  Again, apart from Ohio, probably not.

Now consider the other scenario where McCain takes blue states away from either Obama or Hillary, particularly at a brokered/protested/rioting Dem convention.  Such states include:

Wisconsin
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Washington
Oregon

All of the above were states which Kerry won by less than five percent in 2004.  All of which can easily be turned if the Dem party is fractured after Denver.

[Lauri]

For those of you who used to frequent RN, I spoke with BillW the other night.  We had a quick discussion regarding the election (neither of us is wild about McCain), but he did pique my interest on one thing--if there really is a fracture in the Dem party in Denver and it DOES turn violent, look for McCain to win in a landslide.

awwww... BillW 


I think this fracture might be bigger than we can even imagine. Especially since the media cannot contain it, and are somewhat discussing it ... its gotta be huge.

[Tess Anderson]

Juan IS very popular out here, but the odds are still against him converting WA, OR is more likely to.

WE - he could win even in CA, oinly if it's Obama - but against Hillary, they won't.

A strong run by McCain could help Rossi, who essentially tied Gregoire in 2004 even as John Kerry took the state.

Gregoire used the state Democrat Congress to STEAL her way into office, she's been resented for that ever since. Can't vote straight party here, except manually, can do and will. 

[NHSparky]

At least we can still vote straight party ticket here...

[Freeper]

I saw a washington poll that had mccain leading The BarackStar! and hillary by several points.  rather amazing, considering the nonstop media play that the dem race has been getting.

In this case I think it's a good thing. Keep focusing on the bitter battle between Shillary and Obama people will end up getting sick of them and either not vote come Nov or pull the lever for McCain.

[Tess Anderson]

Well, the Seattle metroplitan area dominates the states, and it's a big naval town...I will keep working on downstate. And, to defeat Gregoire AGAIN - if she wants to win this time, she'd better have her theft skill higher.

Juan will able to turn purple states temprarily red, Rovian magic.

[Chris_]

For those of you who used to frequent RN, I spoke with BillW the other night.  We had a quick discussion regarding the election (neither of us is wild about McCain), but he did pique my interest on one thing--if there really is a fracture in the Dem party in Denver and it DOES turn violent, look for McCain to win in a landslide.

You need to invite Bill over here. 

Back to the topic:

I would love to see those two states go red.  After all the reading I've done regarding the theft of the governor's election in Washington State, it would be great to see Gregoire finally get what she deserves.

[Lord Undies]

If you listen to "conventional wisdom", which means MSM/liberal bullsh*t, every state in the union is going solidly blue.  There are only five or six conservatives left and they all live in trailers in rural Alabama.

[Atomic Lib Smasher]

If you listen to "conventional wisdom", which means MSM/liberal bullsh*t, every state in the union is going solidly blue.  There are only five or six conservatives left and they all live in trailers in rural Alabama.

Yeah, it certainly seems that way from what the MSM says.

[paladin0]

Fox news posted a few maps of the McCain/Obama and McCain/Clinton contrests.

McCain slaughters Clinton, as he wins almost every state Bush won with the exception of Ohio, which was a toss up and there are several more in play. SurveyUSA has it slanted towards the democrats, as it has her winning Florida with a large margin, and Florida is not a blue State. Rasmussen has McCain winning Florida over Clinton by 6%.

Paladin0

[Lauri]

If you listen to "conventional wisdom", which means MSM/liberal bullsh*t, every state in the union is going solidly blue.  There are only five or six conservatives left and they all live in trailers in rural Alabama.

well, here in this 'deep blue' state, Rossi (R) is leading Gregoire (D) by a decent margin so far. I dont expect Queen Christine to step aside willingly - cause she didnt before.

[BlueStateSaint]

I saw a washington poll that had mccain leading The BarackStar! and hillary by several points.  rather amazing, considering the nonstop media play that the dem race has been getting.

Also, consider this--aside from (MAYBE) Ohio, is there a state that Bush won in 2004 that Hillary or Obama could turn in 2008?  Again, apart from Ohio, probably not.

Now consider the other scenario where McCain takes blue states away from either Obama or Hillary, particularly at a brokered/protested/rioting Dem convention.  Such states include:

Wisconsin
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Washington
Oregon

All of the above were states which Kerry won by less than five percent in 2004.  All of which can easily be turned if the Dem party is fractured after Denver.

I've also heard that Michigan could turn red.  McCain has been the beneficiary of the infighting--fratricide, really--that has been going on in the Dem camp.