Ford sales will top GM by 2012, economist says

[thundley4]

A leading economic forecasting firm sees an anemic recovery in new car sales over the next 18 months, but a stronger rebound after 2012 when Ford’s market share in the U.S. will surpass General Motors and narrowly trail Toyota’s.
“The good news is we are at the bottom. That bad news is the hole is deep and it will take long to dig out,” said George Magliano, Global Insight director of North America auto industry research. Several experts from the Lexington, Mass., firm met with clients and industry leaders today at the Dearborn Inn.

Magliano and Nariman Behravesh, the firm’s chief economist, talked about a slow and gradual recovery from this year’s bottom of just over 10 million vehicle sales in the U.S. to 11.2 million next year. But pent-up demand, the eventual creation of jobs and a modest recovery in housing will propel the industry back to annual sales of as high as 17 million by 2014.

In the near-term, however, GM and Chrysler will see their respective market shares shrink. GM will shrink largely due to the death or sale of four brands – Pontiac, Saturn, Saab and Hummer. Chrysler is trying to revive its small and midsize cars, compact crossover utility vehicles and successfully use Fiat’s engineering, purchasing and powertrain expertise.

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I didn't see it mentioned, but I have to wonder if backlash against the government bailout of GM is involved.

[Crazy Horse]

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I didn't see it mentioned, but I have to wonder if backlash against the government bailout of GM is involved.

Ya think??????????

[Hawkgirl]

Ford gained respect of the public by NOT doing what Government Motors did. 

[Chris]

Their sales figures would agree with you.  Good for them.

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/september-sales-snapshot-08-09-comparison/

[bkg]

Excuse my cynicism...

I don't see this lasting past 2013... This administration, with it's complete an utter disrespect for private property, ownership/bankruptcy laws, and the free market will not let that happen. They will simply increase regulations to the point that Ford cannot compete and GM/Chrysler will be the only mfg's who can due to insane subsidies.

Won't happen this term - they can't get away with it. Next term, if re-elected, we'll be far enough down the Communist path that it'll be quick and painful.

[Chris_]

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I didn't see it mentioned, but I have to wonder if backlash against the government bailout of GM is involved.

I see the future of these three as more based on free market demands......GM and to a lesser degree Chrysler will be forced by their government owners to build "green" vehicles that nobody wants to buy, enabling Ford, and imports to seize a larger share of the market.

As an early indicator of this you might want to look up the present "days supply" of hybrid vehicles currently in dealer inventory......it ain't pretty, and will get less so.......

As a post script, you might want to take this article with a grain of salt.......I would be very skeptical of any writer that thinks that Chrysler will benefit from "Fiat's engineering and powertrain expertise"........The great majority of Fiat's commodity products are far from "state of the art".....and their quality generally is third rate at best......they exist in the EU due largely to niche marketing, production inertia, and favorable government regulation.......

doc