primitives forecast next year's elections

[franksolich]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=296x8240

Oh my.

BlueDemKev (180 posts)      Sun Sep-13-09 08:25 PM
Original message

2010 Election Forecast

I know it's early, but we probably should be keeping an eye on this. With the conservative base fully motivated plus some frustration and divisions on our side, we need to be careful not to let 2010 become 1994 all over again.

If we're going to make America a better place (even if only a modest bit  ), we need to keep our majorities in Congress for more than 2 years.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2009/...

Turbineguy  (1000+ posts)      Sun Sep-13-09 08:31 PM
Response to Original message
 
1. It would be a shame to lose the majority.

It would give the repubs the chance they want to finish off the USA.

BlueDemKev (180 posts)      Sun Sep-13-09 08:36 PM
Response to Reply #1
 
3. That's pretty much why.....

....I've been urging us not to push too far to the left. Not that I embrace (sic) liberal values, but sadly, there are more people in the U.S. who consider themselves "conservative" than "liberal." Doesn't mean we can't win elections, but we have to be prudent in our policies.

BlueDemKev (180 posts)      Sun Sep-13-09 10:04 PM
Response to Reply #3
 
6. OOPS....

...CORRECTION: I meant to say "not that I DON'T embrace liberal values..."

vi5 (1000+ posts)     Sun Sep-13-09 08:34 PM
Response to Original message
 
2. Health care will be my benchmark...

If they handle this like they've handled everything else so far since gaining power back, which is to say capitulating to the mythical "centrists" and "moderates", and worrying more about what republicans who will never vote for them and the beltway media think of them than they do their base, their constituents and liberals in general then I will be sitting out my first election in 20 years of voting.

I've never done that and I've never not voted a straight dem ticket. But with "my party" in the white house, controlling the senate and controlling the house, if they can't show some strength and some leadership and show me why it's better to have them in power then I'm done with them. I'm tired of the goal post being moved.

"Well, yeah, we have a majority but we don't have the white house......o.k. well we have the white house but we don't have a super majority. Well o.k. we have a super majority and the white house but they're not all liberals and we don't want them to be mad at us so please don't primary challenge those centrists and please keep sending us money and....."

Yeah. Done with it. Done with the excuses. Done with being taken for granted.

Pass a healthcare reform with some real changes that aren't geard towards insurance company giveaways and i'll donate and I'll vote. Fail again and that's that for me.

Edited to add: I don't mean that a good bill will have to have single payer or even a public option. But something without mandates and with MUCH tighter regulation of the insurance industry and their shitty practices.

kelly1mm (339 posts)      Sun Sep-13-09 09:17 PM
Response to Original message
 
4. My prediction = Dems lose 31 seats in House, 2 in Senate ....

based on lower voter turnout (especially from young voters and minorities)coupled with continued frustration with jobless recovery and the historically normal off year bump for the opposition party.

Laelth  (1000+ posts)        Sun Sep-13-09 09:27 PM
Response to Original message
 
5. RCP SUX.

I think there's very little chance that we will lose Congress in 2010. The political climate is really very different now than it was in 1994. In 1994, the Republican Party's approval ratings were not in the toilet. The ghost of Ronald Reagan was much more powerful then. Whereas Clinton followed Bush I, Obama follows one of the least popular politicians in American history, Bush II. Clinton was elected with less than 50% of the popular vote. Obama was elected with well over 50% of the popular vote. The religious right had not completely taken over the Republican Party then. Now, Republican politicians are generally insane, reflecting their rabid base.

I think Obama blew his first chance at health care reform by pushing for a weak plan. I think he should table the idea, for now, and push for single payer in 2011. The current system is unsustainable, and everyone knows it. Change will come. Let's not settle for a bailout of the insurance industry. Let's insist on the eradication of it.

I expect the Democratic Party will pick up 3 seats in the Senate and between 3-6 seats in the House UNLESS Congress passes a disastrous "insurance reform" bill. At this point, I would rather do nothing than to pass any of the bills under consideration in Congress (HR 676 excepted, of course).

Stevepol  (1000+ posts)      Mon Sep-14-09 04:53 AM
Response to Original message

7. Keep in mind that ES&S and Diebold can now coordinate their vote rigging more easily..

The approx. 4% tilt toward the Repubs will almost certainly be even greater in 2010, especially in critical races.

The theft of the ballot box is perhaps the biggest reason we have the far-right sub-culture we have at present. The voters out there who wd support the irrational seem much greater in number than they actually are because we don't have a democracy anymore.

Fixing the broken election system shd have been job one many years ago. This is the equivalent of global warming in the political arena. It is destroying the fabric of American life.

Yeah, it would be a good idea to keep track of what happens in the blue cities and blue states; the Republican party machines that dominate these areas do an awful lot of creating votes out of thin air.

craigmatic (68 posts)      Tue Sep-15-09 11:47 AM
Response to Original message
 
8. They could lose 6 in the senate and maybe 20 in the house

Oh, I dunno; I'm assuming the kitchen appliance primitive is referring to Republicans.

[Freeper]

Laelth  (1000+ posts)        Sun Sep-13-09 09:27 PM
Response to Original message
 
5. RCP SUX.

I think there's very little chance that we will lose Congress in 2010. The political climate is really very different now than it was in 1994. In 1994, the Republican Party's approval ratings were not in the toilet. The ghost of Ronald Reagan was much more powerful then. Whereas Clinton followed Bush I, Obama follows one of the least popular politicians in American history, Bush II. Clinton was elected with less than 50% of the popular vote. Obama was elected with well over 50% of the popular vote. The religious right had not completely taken over the Republican Party then. Now, Republican politicians are generally insane, reflecting their rabid base.

I think Obama blew his first chance at health care reform by pushing for a weak plan. I think he should table the idea, for now, and push for single payer in 2011. The current system is unsustainable, and everyone knows it. Change will come. Let's not settle for a bailout of the insurance industry. Let's insist on the eradication of it.

I expect the Democratic Party will pick up 3 seats in the Senate and between 3-6 seats in the House UNLESS Congress passes a disastrous "insurance reform" bill. At this point, I would rather do nothing than to pass any of the bills under consideration in Congress (HR 676 excepted, of course).

hmm is 3 or 4 points more than 50 considered well over? I seem to recall O winning by 53 or 54 percent depending on who was citing the numbers. Which is only a couple more points than Chimpy beat John "I was in Nam" Kerry.

[Defiant1]

I guess the dummies don't know that ES&S bought Premier(Diebold Election Systems) two weeks ago.

[The Village Idiot]

The religious right had not completely taken over the Republican Party then. Now, Republican politicians are generally insane, reflecting their rabid base.

John McCain wasn't even a conservative you moron. He spoke at the Soros Shadow Convention during the GOP Convention in Philly. But somehow McCain is also a raving rapid religious right moonbat to the DUmmies.

[BlueStateSaint]

I'm a' thinkin' that if the Dems don't get the health care takeover passed, they'll lose 80 seats in the House and 6 to 8 in the Senate.  That's how bad the Obamessiah has been already.  If they do manage to get it forced down the throats of the American public, they'll lose over 100 seats in the House--and lose marginal control of the Senate (they still will have the fillibuster).  Everything is shaping up for 2010 to be a "political tsunami" year for the Dems.

[The Village Idiot]

We could hope.

I am still thinking they might burn down the Capitol and blame it on conservative dissidents if it looks like a big loss for them.

[TheSarge]

hmm is 3 or 4 points more than 50 considered well over?

The DUmmies consider 50.1% a "mandate"

[Freeper]

The DUmmies consider 50.1% a "mandate"

47% (I believe it was) for Bill Clinton was a mandate. 

[TheSarge]

47% (I believe it was) for Bill Clinton was a mandate. 
[/quote

Gotta love Lib-speak.

Clinton never got over 49% of the popular vote and he had a "mandate" as you said.

Bush trounces Kerry...gets what 52-53% of the vote and he "barely defeated" Kerry.

[Freeper]

Gotta love Lib-speak.

Clinton never got over 49% of the popular vote and he had a "mandate" as you said.

Bush trounces Kerry...gets what 52-53% of the vote and he "barely defeated" Kerry.

But we all know Diebold stole the election. 
I have also seen the DUmp monkeys call Obama's win a landslide.

[Lacarnut]

I'm a' thinkin' that if the Dems don't get the health care takeover passed, they'll lose 80 seats in the House and 6 to 8 in the Senate.  That's how bad the Obamessiah has been already.  If they do manage to get it forced down the throats of the American public, they'll lose over 100 seats in the House--and lose marginal control of the Senate (they still will have the fillibuster).  Everything is shaping up for 2010 to be a "political tsunami" year for the Dems.

I hope you are right but I am not quite that optimistic.

[BlueStateSaint]

I hope you are right but I am not quite that optimistic.

The reason I'm that optimistic is this:  If HCR goes to the floor of the House with the public option, the general populace will go batshit.  If it goes to the floor without the public option, the Left will either abandon its Representatives by weakening them through a divisive primary, or just stay home on Election Day.

When Charlie Cook, a noted Dem, all but screams warnings to the Dems (and they ignore him), it translates into a big loss for the Dems.  1994 will look like a minor happening compared to 2010.

[Karin]

Saint, I agree.  And I think Laelth is ignoring something in his brilliant analysis up there.  The vast and very real anger of the American public at having been hoodwinked.  We don't take to that around these parts. 

[BlueStateSaint]

Saint, I agree.  And I think Laelth is ignoring something in his brilliant analysis up there.  The vast and very real anger of the American public at having been hoodwinked.  We don't take to that around these parts.  

Ya know what the best part of all of this is?

The Obamessiah will still try to ram his agenda through, regardless of which party controls Congress, in 2011.

The 2012 elections come up.  The Obamessiah is a tremendously unpopular President.  He may set records in how low his ratings go.  (As an aside--I wonder how the LSM would spin that.)  Not only is he up for re-election, so are 33 US Senators--24 of which come from his party.  And, his obstinence to whatever the Republican House tries to put through will endanger even more of the Dems in the House.  Predicted result:  The Republican Party has close to 300 House members come January 3rd, 2013, with 62 to 63 Republican Senate members.  Everything the Obamination does will be repealled in the first few days of that new Congress, and President (fill in your favorite name here, but the name I select is as likely as any now) Palin sprains her right arm signing all of them into law.  Even though the LSM savages her, and liberals try to muster some sort of rebellion against the Federal government (which is put down by conservatives who are armed), President Sarah Palin goes on to restore the United States' prominence in the world as a country that keeps its' promises.

Oh--and there isn't another Democratic President for 30 to 40 years, as all of the mess that the Dems have put us into is revealled, despite the LSM's best efforts to the contrary.

It will take four very rough years--but we'll be the better for going through it.

[NHSparky]

hmm is 3 or 4 points more than 50 considered well over? I seem to recall O winning by 53 or 54 percent depending on who was citing the numbers. Which is only a couple more points than Chimpy beat John "I was in Nam" Kerry.

This is laughable, considering that in the 44 years since LBJ's "landslide" victory, only two Democrat candidates have ever received over 50 percent of the popular vote: Obama with 52.9 percent, and Carter with 50.1 percent.  Yet in that same timeframe, GOP candidates have won a majority of the popular vote in: 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, and 2004.  In fact, going back even farther, NO Dem candidate between FDR and LBJ won a majority of the popular vote--and yes, that included Kennedy.

And this one makes me roll on the floor:

The political climate is really very different now than it was in 1994. In 1994, the Republican Party's approval ratings were not in the toilet. The ghost of Ronald Reagan was much more powerful then.

Funny, I thought Reagan didn't pass away until 2004.  Silly me.  Oh, and historically speaking, those liberals who claim the GOP's ratings are in the toilet?  If they had read that survey further, they would have seen that it's the lowest self-identified Republican percentage since 1983.  Now, I might be off a bit here, who won 49 states in the presidential election the following year?  Oh, yeah!

[NHSparky]

The DUmmies consider 50.1% a "mandate"

They don't even need that much.  Remember the TIME cover from 1993 when Clinton took office?

For liberals, even 43 percent is a mandate--unless you're Bush (or any conservative for that matter), in which case, you could have won by 20 points and they'd still be bitching about how divided the country was.

[Chris_]

Stevepol  (1000+ posts)      Mon Sep-14-09 04:53 AM
Response to Original message

7. Keep in mind that ES&S and Diebold can now coordinate their vote rigging more easily..

The approx. 4% tilt toward the Repubs will almost certainly be even greater in 2010, especially in critical races.

The theft of the ballot box is perhaps the biggest reason we have the far-right sub-culture we have at present. The voters out there who wd support the irrational seem much greater in number than they actually are because we don't have a democracy anymore.

Fixing the broken election system shd have been job one many years ago. This is the equivalent of global warming in the political arena. It is destroying the fabric of American life.

Interesting...I thought the DUmmies said they already "fixed" the voting system last week or so...

[Lord Undies]

Stevepol  (1000+ posts)      Mon Sep-14-09 04:53 AM
Response to Original message

7. Keep in mind that ES&S and Diebold can now coordinate their vote rigging more easily..

Even if this was true it would serve only to somewhat offset the vast and brazen voter fraud, voter cheating, illegal voting, and election theft brought to us by "organizations" such as ACORN, which do their dirt work out in the open and unashamed, and until recently, unchallenged.

In other words, ES&S and Diebold coordinating their "vote rigging" would be a good thing which would serve to bring some balance and democracy back into our voting process.

The approx. 4% tilt toward the Repubs will almost certainly be even greater in 2010, especially in critical races.

This merely means reality can be restored.  The Little Goon doesn't want to realize what he is really saying here.  Polls show (and prove) the "4% tilt" is the real political landscape today.  This Little Goons rages against reality in his passive/aggressive fashion trying with all his Little Goon might to get as many people as possible to believe his unchallenged lie is the truth.

The theft of the ballot box is perhaps the biggest reason we have the far-right sub-culture we have at present.

The unintended truth.....it indeed was the theft of the ballot box which has driven a return to seeking conservatism.

Good Lawd, the Little Goons are stupid Little creatures.