New data on jobs, housing signal no recovery near

[thundley4]

WASHINGTON – Worse-than-expected news on unemployment and home sales Thursday dampened optimism that a broad economic recovery might be near.
The Labor Department said initial claims for unemployment compensation rose to a seasonally adjusted 640,000, up from a revised 613,000 the previous week. That was slightly more than analysts' expectations of 635,000.
Economists are closely watching the unemployment compensation data because they believe a sustained decline in the number of initial claims could signal the end of the recession is nearing. Jobless claims have historically peaked six to 10 weeks before recessions end, according to a report by Goldman Sachs. Initial claims reflect job cuts by employers.
But the latest report shows job losses remain high. The four-week average of claims, which smooths out volatility, dropped slightly to 646,750, about 12,000 below the peak in early April. Goldman Sachs economists have said a decline of 30,000 to 40,000 in the four-week average is needed to signal a peak.
Abiel Reinhart, economist at JPMorgan Chase Bank, said further declines in the four-week average "would show that our forecast for a resumption of economic growth in (the third quarter) is reasonable."

Link

Where's my  free pony?

[Flame]

I'm SHOCKED....just SHOCKED I tell ya... that the extra 13 dollars in everyone's paycheck hasn't turned the economy right around!

[Hawkgirl]

What?  How could this have happened...all those billions to banks to increase lending?!?!?...Did the banks HOARD all that money...this is SHOCKING!!   

[DumbAss Tanker]

Hard to say, home sales isn't a leading indicator and due to commercial credit issues, unemployment may be slower than normal coming back.  It does seem that markets have discounted prices for all the foreseeable bad news and seem to have bottomed out, at least.

[NHSparky]

Sorry, DAT, but I don't think it's bottomed out yet.  Not by a longshot.  A lot of the ARMs are adjusting this year and with refinancing so tough to get, it's gonna be brutal.  Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, is doing a 100 percent refi.  Even getting 95 percent is damn near impossible, and with so many of these ARMs upside down, it's gonna get a lot worse towards the end of the year.

And now with GM closing most of their plants this summer, don't be surprised if a lot of them simply don't come back.  So now we've gone from 8 percent unemployment to 10-11 percent.

Next up--hyperinflation due to all that cash in the market like so much Monopoly money.

[DumbAss Tanker]

I think almost all of that's already been considered and discounted in trading, and the hypeinflation is 'way down the road.  If there is hyperinflation (And Obama's fiscal policy could certainly take us there) it won't be until the recovery is well under way.  However, in inflationary times, having all your dough in interest-rate lagging assets like bonds is a pretty sucky plan.