Russia Ends Chechnya 'Operation'

[Chris]

Russia Ends Chechnya 'Operation'

With very little forecast, the head of the Russian Federal Security Service Alexandr Bortnikov has declared that on 16 April at midnight will be the official end of the counter-terrorist “operation” in Chechnya. This development would be in regard to current overall military arrangements within Chechnya. The once wholly-renegade province has preoccupied Russia in war and conflict for the last 17 years.

The question is whether or not Chechnya is really so secure as such an announcement would suggest. It is true that since outright war began in 1999 and after lulling into a more classical but less successful (than during the 1st Chechen war) Chechen anti-guerrilla campaign, the conflict itself has been trending downwards in violence with the passage of time.

Some Chechen holdouts, still fighting the conflict, might see such an announcement and any accompanying withdrawal as a good juncture to start building up arms and material again for a new guerrilla campaign. Past Chechen propaganda has suggested that even if it takes forever, the Chechen nation shall be independent. Such rhetoric has a strong basis in past guerrilla conflicts where whenever the “imperial” country takes its predominant focus off of the “occupied” nation there is a replenishment of the rebellion.

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[DumbAss Tanker]

I personally find it extremely doubtful that this really means an end to ham-fisted Russian punitive measures, or occasional encounters by night that leave dead Russian soldiers and Chechen insurgents in their wake.