[quote ]ANATOLE KALETSKY
FOR THOSE of us who were disappointed, and even horrified, by George W. Bush’s return to power there was one consolation in yesterday’s result. On the contrary, the previously unmentionable hope for the supporters of liberal politics in America, is that Senator Kerry has done the Democratic Party a favour of immense, historic proportions by losing to Mr Bush. In military history, it is a commonplace that there are certain battles worth losing rather than winning — and if ever this were true in politics, then the 2004 US election would be a case in point.
To see what I mean, step away from America for a moment and consider the most successful left-of-centre party in the modern world: Britain’s “new†Labour Party. Now ask yourself what electoral event laid the foundation for Labour’s success. This would be the 1992 election, in which a manifestly incompetent Tory Government was unexpectedly and undeservedly returned to power.
If Neil Kinnock instead of John Major had won the 1992 election, the devaluation of Black Wednesday would have occurred even sooner. The monetary crisis which undermined the Tories’ long-established reputation for economic competence would have been blamed on Labour’s mismanagement. Black Wednesday (or Monday or Tuesday) would almost certainly have brought down the Kinnock Government and would unquestionably have ended Labour’s hopes of ever again becoming a serious party of government. Indeed, as a very minor contributor to the outcome of the 1992 election through my articles unravelling Labour’s absurd tax plans, I have often been thanked by friends in the party for inadvertently helping them to avoid the terrible fate awaiting them if they had gained power.
So was 2004 a good election to lose, just like 1992 in Britain? Will the Democrats one day thank John Kerry for losing, just as Labour is grateful to Mr Kinnock? This seems distinctly possible, given the challenges now facing America, especially in geopolitics and macroeconomics. Iraq is a mess which Mr Bush created and it is surely fitting that he should be the one forced to clean it up. The same is true of ballooning government deficits, escalating oil prices and the small but growing, threat of a crisis in the US balance of payments leading to an international run on the dollar.
...
In sum, the next four years could be a good time for the Democrats to let right-wing Republicans take their policies to their logical conclusion and beyond. Just as Mr Major took Thatcherism beyond its logical conclusions with policies such as rail privatisation and the bizarre moralising of “back to basicsâ€, the Republicans could overreach themselves not only in economics and foreign policy but also in social and environmental matters and o n the membership of the Supreme Court.
Meanwhile, the Democrats must rebuild their party, unite around an impressive new leader and wait for Republican mythology to self-destruct in the face of events. All this will happen in time, very possibly in the next four years. If so, the Democrats may one day hail Mr Kerry as the man whose defeat paved the way for Hillary Clinton, just as Labour now reveres Mr Kinnock as the lucky loser who made possible the triumphs of Tony Blair.
[/quote]http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article502844.ece
Written by a liberal of course, but in parts quite prescient. The Tories winning in 1992 was a surprise to just about everybody, in the end the subsequent collapse of the Major administration ushered in a disastrous brand of authoritarian socialism and one of the most corrupt governments we have ever had in the form of a youngish leader with sketchy policies and a great line in meaningless slogans - sound familiar?. (One classic was 'education, education, education'. Sadly recent research shows that current education standards mean that children in state schools here are less well educated than they were in 1976). However I think that Kaletsky's point holds true now. As an 'outsider' obviously I did not follow the twists and turns of the primaries, and I don't have the insider cultural knowledge of the political scene in the US that you guys do, but I was somewhat surprised that McCain won the primaries - I guess that comes with hanging out with the Republican base rather than RINOs!
However what the Right has is a chance to rebuild and connect with a new base. One thing I have noticed in recent elections here is that the Labour party support has retracted back to a base of metropolitan liberals, ethnic minorities, welfare dependents and a few remaining 'tribal voters' in ex-industrial heartlands (though even that has softened). Sadly a minority (not huge but enough to be worrying) of the former 'white working class' voters have supported the racist British National Party, they have not been attracted largely for historical/cultural reasons to the Tories, (others have of course which is good). They have moved because they perceive favouritism toward the aforementioned favoured groups.
I'm disappointed by the result obviously, but I hope it is the beginning of some genuine resistance to liberalism and a chance to restate core conservative principles.
